Box Office Predictions: ‘The Creator’ Poised To Take First Over ‘Paw Patrol’ And ‘Saw X’

Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.

Weekend Box Office Predictions: September 29th, 2023 to October 1st, 2023

Following two slow frames each of the past two weekends, the domestic box office will look to pick back up this weekend with the arrival of three new wide releases; Disney and 20th Century's The Creator, Paramount's PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie and Lionsgate's Saw X, as well as the expansion of Sony's Dumb Money to wide release. It could prove to be a tight three-way race for first place this weekend, as The Creator, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie and (to a slightly lesser extent) Saw X will all have a shot of leading the way this weekend.

Disney and 20th Century's The Creator is the weekend's widest new release, as the sci-fi film will be playing in 3,680 locations. The Creator was directed by Gareth Edwards and stars John David Washington, Gemma Chan, Ken Watanabe, Sturgill Simpson, Madeleine Yuna Voyles and Allison Janney. The Creator will be playing on IMAX screens, has Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM and also had early access preview shows on Wednesday at select locations. If this weekend's race for first place does prove to be a close one, higher priced IMAX tickets and Wednesday's early access preview grosses will be added advantages for The Creator. It appears that there is also a high level of online interest in The Creator, though whether or not that level of interest will transfer over to more casual moviegoers remains to be seen. One factor that could prevent The Creator from breaking out this weekend is that the film's critical reviews, while still respectable on the average, haven't been as strong as many had been expecting them to be prior to the film's release. It should also be noted that The Creator was significantly more expensive than both PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie and Saw X were, so it will be especially important for The Creator to get off to a solid start this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Creator will debut with $21.0 million, which would likely be good enough for first place this weekend.

Paramount's PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie represents the second theatrical PAW Patrol computer animated film. Like 2021's PAW Patrol: The Movie, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie was also directed by Cal Brunker. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie will be playing in 3,644 locations this weekend and isn't having Thursday preview shows. Back in August of 2021, PAW Patrol: The Movie debuted with $13.15 million, before going on to gross $40.13 million domestically. However, PAW Patrol: The Movie opened day-and-date, theatrically and via streaming on Paramount+, which led to PAW Patrol: The Movie opening in a scaled back 3,184 locations and in all likelihood deflated that film's theatrical performance. With PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie opening exclusively in theatres and in more locations than its predecessor, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie is likely to open higher than PAW Patrol: The Movie by a significant amount. The current lack of options in the marketplace for family audiences should also help out PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie this weekend. One factor to keep an eye on with PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie is that there is the possibility for some relative front-loading, as the film is a sequel to a film that proved to be relatively front-loaded for a family film. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie will open with $20.5 million, which would place the film in a very close second and would also likely represent the highest gross over the weekend itself (without the inclusion of preview grosses).

As the film's title implies, Lionsgate's Saw X is the tenth installment of the Saw franchise. The R-rated horror film was directed by Kevin Greutert and stars Tobin Bell, Shawnee Smith, Synnøve Macody Lund, Steven Brand, Michael Beach and Renata Vaca. Saw X isn't opening quite as wide as The Creator and PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie, as Saw X will open in 3,262 locations this weekend. Thursday preview shows for Saw X begin at 6PM. In a reversal of what we've seen with critical reviews for The Creator, critical reviews for Saw X have been stronger than most would have expected beforehand. Lionsgate is coming off of last weekend's disappointing $8.04 million start for Expend4bles, and while that leads to some caution when it comes to Saw X, odds are that Saw X won't follow in the footsteps of Expend4bles. A better opening weekend comparison may prove to be Jigsaw (the eighth installment of the Saw franchise), which opened with $16.64 million back in October of 2017 and went on to gross $38.05 million domestically. With better critical reviews and opening further away from the Halloween holiday, Saw X will also have a strong chance of being less front-loaded than Jigsaw was. Look for Saw X to debut in third place this weekend with a promising $18.5 million.

Last weekend saw Sony's Dumb Money expand to moderate release with a respectable $2.43 million from 619 locations. This weekend Dumb Money expands to wide release in 2,837 locations. Dumb Money will no doubt take a backseat to the weekend's top three films, but Dumb Money could take fourth place this weekend with $6.2 million. That would bring the film's domestic total to date to roughly $10 million. Dumb Money, which has received good critical reviews, was directed by Craig Gillespie and features an ensemble cast that includes Paul Dano, Pete Davidson, Vincent D'Onofrio, America Ferrera, Nick Offerman, Anthony Ramos, Sebastian Stan, Shailene Woodley, and Seth Rogen.

With four new options in the marketplace this weekend, and three of those options (The Creator, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie and Saw X) playing on multiple screens at many locations, holdovers in general are likely to experience significant declines this weekend. Warner Bros.'s The Nun could decline 45.0 percent to place in fifth with $4.7 million, Disney and 20th Century's A Haunting in Venice could decrease 41.3 percent to follow in sixth with $3.7 million, Lionsgate's Expend4bles could fall a sharp 62.7 percent to land in seventh with $3.0 million and Sony's The Equalizer 3 could slow 47.4 percent to take eighth place with $2.5 million.

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