Box Office Predictions: ‘The Boy And The Heron’ Set To Fly To First
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: December 8th, 2023 to December 10th, 2023
A week after the successful debut of Toho International's Godzilla Minus One, this weekend sees another high-profile film from Japan enter the domestic marketplace with GKIDS's release of Studio Ghibli's The Boy and the Heron. The critically acclaimed Hayao Miyazaki directed anime film represents the first full-length film from Miyazaki since The Wind Rises (which was released in Japan in 2013 and in North America in 2014). The Boy and the Heron is playing in an estimated 2,200+ locations this weekend, will be playing on IMAX screens and has traditional Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. Prior to Thursday, The Boy and the Heron has also had several days of early access preview shows, which are expected to be included with this weekend's opening weekend figure. While Miyazaki has never had a huge theatrical following in North America, in the near decade since the release of The Wind Rises, both Miyazaki's popularity (thanks in part to GKIDS's Studio Ghibli Fest events) and the popularity of anime in general have clearly risen in North America. With that in mind, The Boy and the Heron is likely to perform stronger than Miyazaki's previous films in North America and the mentioned IMAX shows and early access shows will also provide opening weekend boosts for the film. Last weekend Godzilla Minus One debuted with $11.42 million and it feels quite reasonable that The Boy and the Heron could open in the same neighborhood this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Boy and the Heron will start out with $11.0 million this weekend (including all previews).
Lionsgate's The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes continued to display very strong holding power last weekend by declining 51.2 percent to place in second with $14.17 million. The well-received prequel has been holding up significantly better than previous films in The Hunger Games franchise, and should continue to do so this weekend. With The Boy and the Heron (as well as Waitress: The Musical) being aimed at a very targeted audience, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (and holdovers in general this weekend) won't really be facing new direct competition. Look for The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes to decline just 29.4 percent to hold steady in second place with $10.0 million.
As mentioned, Toho International's Godzilla Minus One was off to an impressive third place debut last weekend with $11.42 million. In addition to the strength of last weekend's performance, Godzilla Minus One has been displaying strong initial daily holding power thus far, both last weekend and during the midweek. Godzilla Minus One is clearly benefiting from its strong critical reviews and strong word of mouth (the film received an A rating on CinemaScore). Furthermore, this holiday season not looking to have a true event film by more recent holiday season standards may be working to the advantage of Godzilla Minus One, as more and more moviegoers appear to be willing to give the film a chance. Godzilla Minus One will be losing its IMAX showtimes this weekend, but that shouldn't hurt as much as usual given that the film split IMAX screens last weekend. In addition, the film will be adding some new locations this weekend and also looks to be holding onto a fairly high percentage of its average showtimes per location this weekend. Godzilla Minus One could decline just 27.3 percent from last weekend to hold steady in third place with $8.3 million. That would represent an exceptional second weekend hold, especially with last weekend's debut having been inflated a bit from two days of preview grosses.
AMC Theatres Distribution's release of Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé had a nice opening weekend performance last weekend with a first place start of $21.80 million.
As was the case with AMC Theatres Distribution's release of Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film, Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé isn't screening on Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays, but will continue to screen from Thursdays through Sundays. Concert films typically experience large second weekend declines, as seen with the 64.2 percent Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film declined in its second weekend back in October. Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé will likely experience an even larger second weekend percentage decline this weekend due in part to a significant percentage of last weekend's gross for the concert documentary coming from Thursday's preview shows. A decline of 70.2 percent from last weekend would transfer into a second weekend take of $6.5 million for Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé this weekend. Beyond this weekend, Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé will still have a chance of stabilizing later in its run, thanks in part to the potential for repeat business after receiving a perfect A+ rating on CinemaScore.
Last weekend Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Trolls Band Together, Disney's Wish and Sony and Apple's Napoleon were fairly bunched together with respective weekend grosses of $7.83 million, $7.71 million and $7.28 million. The three films could finish in the same order in relation to one another this weekend, though there could also be more relative spacing between the three films. Look for Trolls Band Together to decline a slim 19.5 percent from last weekend to gross $6.3 million, for Wish to decrease just 24.7 percent to take in $5.8 million and for Napoleon (which looks to be getting some IMAX showtimes back this weekend) to slow a solid 34.0 percent to register $4.8 million.
This weekend also sees the semi-wide release of Bleecker Street's Waitress: The Musical in 1,214 locations. The release is a filmed presentation of the popular Broadway stage musical starring Sara Bareilles and is being released in partnership with Fathom Events. Waitress: The Musical is opening on Thursday and is scheduled to only play for five days (through Monday). The limited release window should help boost this weekend's performance, though any break-out potetnial will be limited by the semi-wide release. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day and four-day performances of $3.5 million and $4.6 million for Waitress: The Musical.
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