Box Office Predictions: The Reign Of ‘Barbie’ Has Arrived With Oppenheimer In Tow

Box Office Report

Jul 20

Weekend Box Office Predictions: July 21st, 2023 to July 23rd, 2023

This weekend marks the highly anticipated arrival of both Warner Bros.'s Barbie and Universal's Oppenheimer. The decision to release two of the year's more anticipated non-sequels on the same weekend eventually led to this weekend turning into an organic event known as Barbenheimer (also referred to as Barbieheimer). Months and months ago, initial opening weekend expectations for both films were much closer, but thanks in part to continued growing buzz for Barbie from an especially strong marketing campaign, Barbie has clearly become an event film of its own. With that said, Oppenheimer also looks to be generating some strong late momentum over the past week or so. In general it appears that the two films being released the same weekend has helped to increase awareness and anticipation for both films and an increasing amount of moviegoers are planning on watching both films in theatres (on opening weekend itself or at some point eventually). Together the two films could potentially combine for at least $200 million at the domestic box office this weekend.

Warner Bros.'s Barbie was directed by Greta Gerwig, stars Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling and also includes an ensemble cast that includes America Ferrera, Kate McKinnon, Michael Cera, Ariana Greenblatt and Will Ferrell (among others). The film will be playing in 4,243 locations this weekend, has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM and also had select Early Access shows on Wednesday night (titled Barbie Blowout Party). While Barbie isn't playing on IMAX or 3D screens this weekend, the film will be playing on some premium format screens, such as Dolby Cinema and Cinemark XD (though even then, Barbie won't have those formants entirely to itself). The limited amount of premium priced tickets may be the only real factor limiting the break-out potential of Barbie this weekend, though it is a significant factor. Barbie is getting a high amount of showtimes per location this weekend, thanks in part to the film's 114-minute run-time. Many theatres also look to have increased hours this weekend to help fit in extra showtimes of Barbie (as well as Oppenheimer). While Barbie likely would have been largely critic-proof this weekend regardless, critical reviews for the film have also been quite strong; which is another great early sign for the film, especially beyond this weekend. Given the high amount of pre-sales for Barbie and the overall demand for the film (especially among young adults), Barbie should deliver the largest opening weekend of this summer and could open in the same general area as other recent blockbusters such as last year's Avatar: The Way of Water ($134.10 Million) and this year's The Super Mario Bros. Movie ($146.36 million), despite receiving far less of a boost from premium priced tickets than those films did. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Barbie will debut with $140.0 million this weekend.

Universal's Oppenheimer was directed by Christopher Nolan, stars Cillian Murphy as J. Robert Oppenheimer and also features Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Robert Downey Jr. and Florence Pugh. The film is playing in 3,610 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. Oppenheimer will be playing on IMAX screens for three weeks and there is a very high level of demand to see the film in the IMAX format. However, with a run-time of 180 minutes and so many other screens going to Barbie this weekend (as well as this weekend's holdovers), a relative lack of opening weekend showtimes for a film as anticipated as Oppenheimer will no doubt limit opening weekend potential. With that being the case, there could be a lot of sold out screenings for Oppenheimer this weekend, especially when it comes to IMAX and other higher-priced premium screens, which will provide a boost to the film's grosses. The relatively lower amount of showtimes this weekend, in combination with continued demand to see Oppenheimer on a premium screen, an older skewing audience and the film's very strong critical reviews could lead to a lengthy run for Oppenheimer beyond this weekend. As for this weekend, Oppenheimer could debut in second place with an impressive $62.0 million. Without taking into account ticket price inflation, that would be nearly on par with the $62.79 million debut of Inception back in July of 2010 (which currently represents Christopher Nolan's largest opening weekend outside of The Dark Knight trilogy).

Despite Barbenheimer, Paramount's Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One and Angel Studios's Sound of Freedom should both continue to have a significant presence at the box office this weekend as well. It could prove to be a very close race for third place between the two films this weekend, as on Wednesday the Tom Cruise-led Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One had a very slight edge over the Jim Caviezel-led Sound of Freedom for the day: $4.74 million to $4.72 million. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One will no doubt take a hit from losing IMAX screens to Oppenheimer this weekend, but on the other hand the film will still have a significant location count advantage over Sound of Freedom this weekend (4,321 locations to 3,285 locations) and could also prove to be less midweek-heavy than Sound of Freedom at this point. Both films will continue to benefit from strong word of mouth this weekend. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One could decline a sizable 56.1 percent from last weekend's $54.69 million three-day opening for a second weekend take of $24.0 million. Sound of Freedom, which is likely to be far less affected by Barbenheimer, could decrease a slim 13.9 percent from last weekend's $27.28 million second weekend gross to take in an impressive $23.5 million in its third weekend of release.

As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, it could be a tight race for places fifth through seventh between Disney's Elemental, Disney's Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Sony's Insidious: The Red Door. While Elemental finished behind Insidious: The Red Door and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny last weekend and could take a fairly direct hit form Barbie this weekend, Elemental has been holding up far better than both Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Insidious: The Red Door and as a result will be holding onto a higher percentage of its locations and showtimes this weekend. That could give Elemental the very slight edge for fifth place this weekend. Look for Elemental to decline 28.6 percent to gross $6.5 million, for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny to decrease 47.8 percent to take in $6.4 million and for Insidious: The Red Door to fall 51.5 percent for a weekend take of $6.3 million.