Box Office Predictions: M. Night Shyamalan’s ‘Trap’ Set To Debut In Second Behind Marvel’s Summer Powerhouse
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: August 2nd, 2024 - August 4th, 2024
After last weekend's record-breaking debut (for an R-rated film and the month of July), Disney and Marvel's Deadpool & Wolverine will look to easily remain at the top of the box office this weekend. Deadpool & Wolverine started out with a massive $211.44 million last weekend, which represented the sixth largest opening weekend performance of all-time. Deadpool & Wolverine has continued to impress during the midweek this week, which suggests that the film is going over very well with audiences, as does the film's strong A rating on CinemaScore. Deadpool & Wolverine will also receive an added boost this weekend from continuing to play on IMAX screens. Back in 2016, Deadpool declined 57.4 percent in its second weekend to gross $56.47 million, while in 2018 Deadpool 2 decreased 65.4 percent for a second weekend take of $43.46 million. It appears that Deadpool & Wolverine is headed for a second weekend percentage hold more along the lines of Deadpool than that of Deadpool 2, which would represent a very nice second weekend hold for a film within the (typically front-loaded) Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU). Look for Deadpool & Wolverine to decline 57.9 percent this weekend to take in $89.0 million. That would represent the twelfth largest unadjusted second weekend gross of all-time and would already move Deadpool & Wolverine well past the $363.07 million final total domestic gross of Deadpool.
Arriving in theatres this weekend is Warner Bros.'s Trap. The PG-13 rated thriller represents the latest film from director M. Night Shyamalan and stars Josh Hartnett, Ariel Donoghue and Saleka Shyamalan. Trap is playing in 3,181 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. Critical reviews for the film have been mixed. After having a career resurgence at the box office with 2015's The Visit, 2017's Split and 2019's Glass; M. Night Shyamalan's last two films as a director, 2021's Old and 2023's Knock at the Cabin haven't performed nearly as strong. Old started out with $16.85 million in July of 2021, while Knock at the Cabin opened with just $14.13 million in February of 2023. However, it appears that there is more interest in Trap than there was in either Old or Knock at the Cabin, likely due in part to the concept of Trap being set within the world of a pop concert. Trap being rated PG-13 is also likely to give the film a bit of a boost at the box office. One factor that could limit Trap from having more of a break-out performance this weekend is that the film looks to be getting a fairly average amount of showtimes per location this weekend for a new wide release (due in part to Deadpool & Wolverine still taking up a very high number of screens per location this weekend). Three weeks ago fellow thriller Longlegs debuted with $22.40 million and it feels reasonable that Trap could be headed for a very similar start this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Trap will take second place this weekend with $22.5 million.
Universal's Twisters could find itself in a close race with Trap for second place this weekend. While Twisters has gone over well with audiences, last weekend the film declined a sizable 56.9 percent in the face of Deadpool & Wolverine for a still solid second weekend gross of $34.99 million. With the opening weekend frame of Deadpool & Wolverine now out of the way, Twisters is likely to stabilize significantly this weekend. However, that stabilization could also be limited a bit by Twisters still looking to lose a decent amount of its average showtimes per location from last weekend. Twisters could decline a solid 38.6 percent this weekend to place in third with $21.5 million, as the film continues to approach the $200 million domestic mark.
Also opening in wide release this weekend is Sony's Harold and the Purple Crayon. The Carlos Saldanha directed family comedy stars Zachary Levi, Lil Rel Howery, Jemaine Clement and Zooey Deschanel. Harold and the Purple Crayon, which is an adaptation of the children's book of the same name, is playing in 3,325 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. There doesn't seem to be much interest in Harold and the Purple Crayon, due in part to family audiences likely being quite satisfied at the moment after this summer has already seen Inside Out 2, Despicable Me 4 and to a lesser extent IF and The Garfield Movie. Critical reviews being mostly negative for Harold and the Purple Crayon thus far won't help matters either for the film this weekend. Fans of the original children's book, fans of the film's cast and the fairly wide launch will likely lead to Harold and the Purple Crayon having at least a bit of an audience this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Harold and the Purple Crayon will debut with $7.3 million, which would place the film in fifth (behind Despicable Me 4 and ahead of Inside Out 2).
As for Universal / Illumination's Despicable Me 4 and Disney / Pixar's Inside Out 2, this weekend Despicable Me 4 could decline a very solid 32.8 percent to gross $9.8 million and Inside Out 2 could decrease just 28.1 percent to gross $6.2 million.
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