Box Office Predictions: Love Looks To Beat Spiders
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: February 16th, 2024 - February 19th, 2024
While the overall box office this weekend won't be on fire by typical Presidents' Day weekend standards, some much needed life will nonetheless be brought to movie theatres this weekend with the releases of Paramount's Bob Marley: One Love, Sony's Madame Web and Fathom Events' The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4 – 6.
Paramount's Bob Marley: One Love looks to be a very safe bet to take first place over the four-day holiday frame. The Bob Marley music biopic was directed by Reinaldo Marcus Green, stars Kingsley Ben-Adir as Bob Marley and also stars Lashana Lynch. Bob Marley: One Love began playing in 3,536 locations today (Wednesday). Both Bob Marley: One Love and Madame Web didn't have Tuesday preview shows. Critical reviews for Bob Marley: One Love have been largely negative, but it appears that the level of Marley's popularity will help make the film largely critic-proof, at least out of the gate. There is also a strong possibility that Bob Marley: One Love will go over much better with audiences than it has with critics (the albeit very early Verified Audience Score for the film on Rotten Tomatoes stands at 96 percent as of publishing). Bob Marley: One Love will get off to a strong midweek start thanks in part to the film's Valentine's Day release date. While the Valentine's Day opening will no doubt lead to initial front-loading, the four-day Presidents' Day holiday frame should help offset at least a part of that early front-loading. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Bob Marley: One Love will take first place over the four-day holiday frame with $26.5 million and that the film will gross a healthy $41.0 million during its first six days of release.
Also opening on Valentine's Day is Sony's Madame Web. The comic book based film set in Sony's Spider-Man Universe was directed by S. J. Clarkson and stars Dakota Johnson as Madame Web. The film also features Sydney Sweeney, Celeste O'Connor, Isabela Merced and Tahar Rahim. Madame Web is playing in a wide 4,013 locations. Interest levels in Madame Web look to be rather limited by comic book adaptation standards; in part from the Madame Web character being lesser known to more mainstream audiences (though the film does also feature multiple versions of Spider-Woman). Very poor critical reviews won't help matters for Madame Web either, and unlike Bob Marley: One Love, initial audience reaction isn't looking great, as the early Verified Audience Score for Madame Web on Rotten Tomatoes stands at 71 percent (as of publishing). The biggest draw for Madame Web will be the presence of both Dakota Johnson and Sydney Sweeney in the film, especially with Sweeney coming off of the success of fellow Sony release Anyone But You. Despite the potentially worse reception with audiences, between now and Monday Madame Web probably won't be quite as front-loaded towards Wednesday and Thursday as Bob Marley: One Love likely will be, due to having less appeal with Valentine's Day audiences. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Madame Web will place in second with $17.0 million over the four-day weekend and that the film will start out with $24.0 million over its first six days of release.
On Thursday, Fathom Events will release The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4 – 6. The event release represents the second of three theatrical releases of Season 4 of The Chosen faith-based television series. Due in part to initially releasing Season 4 of The Chosen exclusively in theatres, The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1 – 3 has performed quite nicely over the past two weeks. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1 – 3 had respective three-day weekend and four-day starts of $5.94 million and $7.38 million and has gone on to gross $13.19 million domestically through Tuesday. As the second release, The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4 – 6 likely won't perform quite as well as The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1 – 3 has. At the same time, with the holiday frame, The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4 – 6 will have an extra day in its initial opening, so the five-day start for The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4 – 6 could approach the four-day start of The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1 – 3. Look for The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4 – 6 to gross $5.9 million over the four-day frame and $7.1 million over the film's first five days of release. Fathom Events will release the third and final part of Season 4 of The Chosen (Episodes 7 & 8) in two weeks on Thursday, February 29.
As for some of this weekend's holdovers, after leading the domestic box office each of the past two weekends, Universal and Apple's Argylle could place in fourth over the four-day holiday frame with $3.9 million, which would represent a so-so 37.6 percent decline from last weekend's three-day take. Family films typically hold up very well over Presidents' Day weekend, so Universal and Illumination's Migration could take in $3.8 million over the four-day frame (which would be a strong 29.4 percent increase over last weekend's three-day gross) and Warner Bros.'s Wonka could gross $3.6 million over the four-day weekend (which would be a healthy 17.8 percent ahead of last weekend's three-day take). With continued strong word of mouth and last weekend's gross having been deflated by Super Bowl weekend, Amazon MGM Studios' The Beekeeper will likely hold up very well this weekend and could be headed for a four-day gross of $3.3 million (which would be down a very slim 2.9 percent from last weekend's three-day performance).
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