Box Office Predictions: ‘Kung Fu Panda 4’ And ‘Dune: Part Two’ Expected To Lead A Solid Weekend
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: March 8th, 2024 - March 11th, 2024
The March box office will look to remain healthy this weekend, as it should be a fairly close race for first place between Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Kung Fu Panda 4 and Warner Bros. and Legendary's Dune: Part Two. After an exceptional start last weekend; Dune: Part Two appears set to have an exceptional second weekend hold, but Kung Fu Panda 4 may still prove to have the slight edge for first place this weekend.
Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Kung Fu Panda 4 will essentially have the family marketplace all to itself upon arriving in theatres this weekend. The fourth theatrical installment of the Kung Fu Panda series was directed by Mike Mitchell and sees the return of Jack Black as the voice of the primary character. Kung Fu Panda 4 is opening in 4,035 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 2PM. On the average, critical reviews for Kung Fu Panda 4 have been good, but not great. Back in January of 2016, Kung Fu Panda 3 debuted with $41.28 million and went on to gross $143.53 million domestically. It appears that Kung Fu Panda 4 will open higher than its predecessor did. In addition to being helped out by eight years of ticket price inflation, Kung Fu Panda 4 will also be helped out this weekend by having a large amount of average showtimes per location (thanks in part to the film's 94 minute run-time) and from the lack of new family films that have entered the marketplace all the way back since Christmas (when fellow Universal release Migration arrived in theatres). BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Kung Fu Panda 4 will debut in first place this weekend with $50.0 million.
Warner Bros. and Legendary's Dune: Part Two opened with a very strong $82.51 million last weekend. That doubled the $41.01 million opening weekend performance of Dune back in October of 2021. In addition to the strength of last weekend's debut, Dune: Part Two has also been displaying strong daily holding power thus far (on Wednesday Dune: Part Two declined just 18.4 percent from Tuesday to gross $6.66 million). Critical reviews and word of mouth have both been exceptional for Dune: Part Two (the film received a strong A rating on CinemaScore). Dune: Part Two will also receive a continued boost this weekend from continuing to play on IMAX screens, especially since there is still a very high level of demand to watch the film in IMAX. In this weekend's box office race with Kung Fu Panda 4, Dune: Part Two will be at a significant disadvantage when it comes to average showtimes per location, while Kung Fu Panda 4 will also have the added advantage of Thursday preview shows. Losing a significant amount of non-IMAX showtimes per-location from last weekend will likely prevent Dune: Part Two from having an even stronger hold than it will ultimately have this weekend. Last July, Oppenheimer declined 43.4 percent in its second weekend to gross $46.71 million. Dune: Part Two could be headed for a very similar second weekend hold this weekend, especially since in being a spring release instead of a summer release, Dune: Part Two should be more weekend heavy than Oppenheimer was. Look for Dune: Part Two to decline 43.0 percent this weekend for a second place second weekend take of $47.0 million.
It may also prove to be a close race for third place this weekend between two new releases; Angel Studios' Cabrini and Lionsgate's Imaginary. Cabrini is a biopic of Mother Frances Cabrini, which was directed by Sound of Freedom director Alejandro Gómez Monteverde and stars Cristiana Dell'Anna and David Morse. Like Angel Studios' other previous releases, Cabrini will look to appeal to faith-based audiences. Cabrini is playing in 2,840 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM. Critical reviews for Cabrini have been strong. Angel Studios' previous non-Sound of Freedom releases have opened in the $4 million to $5.5 million range, but it appears that there is more initial demand for Cabrini. Being Monteverde's first follow-up to Sound of Freedom, releasing the film on International Women's Day, relatively strong advance sales and the film's strong critical reviews are all factors that will give Cabrini sleeper potential at the box office. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Cabrini will debut with $9.3 million this weekend.
Lionsgate and Blumhouse's Imaginary is a PG-13 rated supernatural horror film directed by Jeff Wadlow. The film is playing in 3,118 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM. As of publishing, critical reviews for the film have yet to appear, which typically isn't a good sign this close to release. PG-13 horror films are usually healthy performers at the box office, but there just doesn't seem to be much buzz for Imaginary. Imaginary could find itself in the same neighborhood as Cabrini this weekend with an opening weekend performance of $9.2 million.
Last weekend saw Paramount's Bob Marley: One Love stabilize a bit by declining 44.8 percent to place in second with $7.43 million. The well-received Bob Marley biopic could continue to stabilize this weekend, especially with the film not having to deal with a new release the size of Dune: Part Two this weekend. Bob Marley: One Love could decline a solid 36.8 percent this weekend to round out the weekend's top five with $4.7 million, as the film continues to approach the $100 million domestic mark.
Read more at BoxOfficeReport.com.
