Box Office Predictions: Horror To Dominate With ‘Smile 2’ And ‘Terrifier 3’
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: October 18th, 2024 - October 20th, 2024
Horror will look to continue to lead at the box office this weekend with the release of Paramount's Smile 2. The sequel to the 2022 break-out horror film Smile sees the return of Smile director Parker Finn, and stars Naomi Scott. Smile 2 is opening in 3,619 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. As was the case with Smile, critical reviews for the R-rated Smile 2 have been good on the average. While Smile didn't truly break out on opening weekend itself with a $22.61 million start; the film had tremendous holding power and went on to gross $105.94 million domestically. There doesn't appear to be the same level of interest in Smile 2 as there was in Smile (especially as that film's run went on), but as a sequel Smile 2 should be more front-loaded towards opening weekend than Smile was. That rush-out will help out Smile 2 this weekend, as will the factor that on the average Smile 2 looks to be getting more showtimes per-location than Smile did during its opening weekend. Look for Smile 2 to have an opening weekend performance in the same neighborhood as Smile, with a launch of $22.5 million this weekend.
Last weekend Cineverse's Terrifier 3 out-paced its already rising expectations with an impressive first place debut of $18.93 million. On top of last weekend's stronger than expected start, Terrifier 3 has been holding up very nicely thus far, especially for a horror film that was starting with a smaller, but very dedicated fanbase. As the run for Terrifier 3 continues on, it appears that the fanbase for Terrifier and Art the Clown is growing with every passing day. With more and more horror fans taking a chance on Terrifier 3 as the film's run continues, the film could be looking at a very strong second weekend hold this weekend (even with the new direct competition for horror fans from Smile 2 and the rush-out of the film's initial fanbase last weekend). In addition to the continued buzz around Terrifier 3, the film should also be helped out this weekend by its solid critical reviews, good word of mouth (Terrifier 3 received a B rating on CinemaScore) and by opening in an additional 248 locations this weekend (for a total of 2,762 locations this weekend). BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Terrifier 3 will decline just 37.7 percent this weekend for a second weekend take of $11.8 million. That would likely place Terrifier 3 in a close race with The Wild Robot for second this weekend.
Speaking of Universal and DreamWorks Animation's The Wild Robot; last weekend the well-received computer animated film held up very nicely be declining just 25.9 percent to place in second with $14.00 million. In addition to continuing to benefit from strong critical reviews and strong word of mouth, The Wild Robot should receive additional boosts this weekend from holding onto a very high percentage of its showtimes per location from last weekend and from getting some IMAX showtimes back this weekend (domestic IMAX screens will be split this weekend between The Wild Robot, Joker: Folie à Deux, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and Deadpool & Wolverine). The Wild Robot could hold up even better this weekend than last weekend, by decreasing a very slim 16.4 percent to gross $11.7 million. That would move The Wild Robot past the $100 million domestic mark.
Warner Bros.'s Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will also look to hold up very well this weekend. Last weekend Beetlejuice Beetlejuice declined 27.8 percent to hold steady in third place with $7.32 million. With Beetlejuice Beetlejuice getting some IMAX showtimes back this weekend (as mentioned), and the continued lead-up to Halloween, the blockbuster sequel is also likely to hold up better this weekend than last weekend. A slim 18.1 percent decline would transfer into a $6.0 million fourth place take for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice this weekend and would further strengthen the film's chances of eventually reaching the $300 million domestic mark.
This weekend also sees A24's We Live in Time expand to moderate / semi-wide release in 955 locations. Last weekend We Live in Time was off to a promising start in platform release with an estimated $225,911 from 5 locations in New York and Lost Angeles, for a per-location average of $45,182. We Live in Time, a romantic drama directed by John Crowley and starring Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh, has gone over fairly well with critics. The drawing power of Garfield and Pugh together should help lead to We Live in Time having a solid run as the film expands. This weekend We Live in Time could take fifth place with $3.0 million, which would give the film a solid per-location average of $3,141 for the frame. We Live in Time is also scheduled to receive an additional expansion next weekend.
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