Box Office Predictions: ‘Gran Turismo’ Finally Speeds Into Theaters
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: August 25th, 2023 to August 27th, 2023
It's looking to be a fairly close race for first place at the domestic box office this weekend between Warner Bros.'s Barbie (in its sixth weekend of release) and Sony's Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story (in its first weekend of release). This past weekend, Barbie declined a very solid 37.8 percent to place in second with $21.03 million and on Wednesday, Barbie surpassed The Super Mario Bros. Movie to become the highest grossing release of 2023 domestically thus far. Barbie and holdovers in general this weekend are likely to hold up significantly better this weekend than they did last weekend, thanks in part to National Cinema Day taking place this Sunday (with many theatres offering $4 tickets for the entire day). And with Sony's The Equalizer 3 opening next weekend, it's possible that some moviegoers looking to catch up with summer releases still in the marketplace; may do so this weekend instead of next weekend. Look for Barbie to decline only 18.2 percent from last weekend for a sixth weekend gross of $17.2 million. That would represent the sixth largest sixth weekend gross of all-time and would move Barbie within shouting distance of the $600 million domestic mark.
After being pushed back two weeks from its previous release date at the fairly last minute, Sony's Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story officially opens this weekend. Over the past couple weekends, the video game and true story based Gran Turismo has had select preview shows over multiple days, which will no doubt help boost this weekend's performance. As for this weekend itself, Gran Turismo is playing in 3,856 locations, will be playing on IMAX screens (though IMAX screens are being split this weekend between Gran Turismo, Blue Beetle and Oppenheimer) and has traditional Thursday preview shows beginning at 2PM. Gran Turismo was directed by Neill Blomkamp and stars Archie Madekwe, David Harbour and Orlando Bloom. On the average, critical reviews for the film have been mixed, but more so positive than negative. Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story could debut in a fairly close second place this weekend with $15.5 million (including all preview grosses).
Last weekend Warner Bros.'s Blue Beetle debuted in first place with $25.03 million, which was on the very low end of consensus expectations for the film. Typically, DCEU films experience sharp second weekend declines, but Blue Beetle could hold up somewhat better than usual this weekend, thanks in part to going over fairly well with both critics and audiences, the mentioned National Cinema Day on Sunday and in part to last Sunday's gross likely having been deflated somewhat due to Tropical Storm Hilary hitting Southern California. Blue Beetle looks to be losing most, but not all of its IMAX screens and showtimes from last weekend. A respectable 52.1 percent decline from last weekend would transfer into a third place take of $12.0 million for Blue Beetle this weekend.
Universal's Oppenheimer and Paramount's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem could both be in store for excellent holds this weekend. Last weekend Oppenheimer placed in third with $10.73 million after declining 43.0 percent (due in part to the film losing most of its IMAX screens and showtimes last weekend). Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem declined a similar 44.1 percent last weekend to place in fourth with $8.54 million. In addition to benefiting from National Cinema Day on Sunday, Oppenheimer will also be helped this weekend by returning to a number of the IMAX screens the film left last weekend. Last year on National Cinema Day (which occurred the Saturday of Labor Day weekend) family films held up especially well. If that trend continues this weekend, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem could potentially benefit more than any other film this weekend from National Cinema Day. Look for Oppenheimer to decline a slim 13.3 percent from last weekend to place in fourth with $9.3 million and for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem to decrease a very slim 3.4 percent to round out this weekend's top five with $8.3 million. That would move Oppenheimer past the $300 million domestic mark and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem past the $100 million domestic mark.
This weekend also sees the release of Roadside Attractions' Retribution. The Nimród Antal directed action thriller stars Liam Neeson. Critical reviews for the film have been largely negative. In recent years, Liam Neeson vehicles have tended to open in the neighborhood of $3.1 million to $3.6 million and Retribution might open just below that range (due in part to not launching quite as wide). BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Retribution will debut with $2.7 million this weekend.
And just in time for National Cinema Day on Sunday, this weekend will also see a handful of other new releases and films returning to wider release. Briarcliff Entertainment will release The Hill in 1,570 locations this weekend, while Bleecker Street's Golda arrives in 883 locations. Disney's live action version of The Little Mermaid (including a Sing-Along version) will screen in 1,600 locations, Universal's The Super Mario Bros. Movie will be back in 1,451 locations and Universal will also re-issue 1993's Jurassic Park in 1,224 locations for that film's 30th Anniversary. Potential for The Little Mermaid and the re-issue of Jurassic Park will be held back by those films receiving a limited amount of screenings at many locations this weekend. BoxOfficeReport isn't making official predictions for the releases in question this weekend and expects all five films to fall outside of this weekend's top eleven films.
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