Box Office Predictions: ‘Expend4bles’ Likely To Top A Slow Weekend
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: September 22nd, 2023 to September 24th, 2023
Upon arriving in theatres this weekend, Lionsgate's Expend4bles will look to lead a slow overall frame at the box office. The fourth installment of the action series was directed by Scott Waugh, sees the return of series regulars Jason Statham, Sylvester Stallone, Dolph Lundgren and Randy Couture, and also features a number of new cast additions to the series, including Curtis '50 Cent' Jackson, Megan Fox, Tony Jaa, Iko Uwais and Andy Garcia. Expend4bles is playing in 3,518 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM. While the film isn't playing on IMAX screens this weekend, Expend4bles will be playing on a number of other premium screens. Back in August of 2014, The Expendables 3 disappointed with a debut of $15.88 million, before going on to finish its domestic run with a modest $39.32 million. However, the film performed far stronger internationally, which no doubt helped lead to the go ahead for Expend4bles. While it doesn't appear that domestic audiences are all that excited about Expend4bles, nine years of ticket price inflation and opening in a much emptier marketplace than what The Expendables 3 opened in should help lead to some stabilization of the opening weekend performance for Expend4bles in comparison to The Expendables 3. Expend4bles opening one week before four new films go into wide release next weekend (The Creator, Saw X, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie and Dumb Money) will likely also lead to additional front-loading towards opening weekend for Expend4bles. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Expend4bles will debut with $14.0 million this weekend.
Last weekend saw Warner Bros. and New Line's The Nun II decline a sizable, but very respectable 55.4 percent to pull off a surprise first place victory with a second weekend take of $14.53 million. In comparison, 2018's The Nun declined 66.1 percent in its second weekend to gross $18.24 million. The Nun followed that performance up by declining a respectable 45.4 percent in its third weekend to gross $9.97 million. With The Nun II having gone over better than The Nun with critics and apparently audiences as well, The Nun II will likely also hold up better this weekend than The Nun did in its third weekend. A solid 38.1 percent decline would give The Nun II a second place take of $9.0 million this weekend.
Disney and 20th Century's A Haunting in Venice is coming off of second place debut of $14.28 million, which was towards the lower end of consensus expectations. While A Haunting in Venice has gone over better with critics than both last year's Death on the Nile and 2017's Murder on the Orient Express did, that stronger critical reception doesn't appear to have kicked in yet when it comes to the initial daily holds for A Haunting in Venice. With that in mind, A Haunting in Venice could be headed for a second weekend percentage decline in the same neighborhood as those of Murder on the Orient Express (down 51.9 percent to gross $13.81 million) and Death on the Nile (down 49.1 percent to gross $6.56 million), and perhaps slightly larger. A Haunting in Venice also looks to be taking a sizable hit to its average showtimes per location this weekend, including losing its IMAX screens. A Haunting in Venice could decrease 53.1 percent this weekend to place in third with $6.7 million.
Sony's The Equalizer 3 stabilized nicely last weekend by declining 39.8 percent to place in third with $7.23 million. The Equalizer 3 will likely continue to stabilize further this weekend, though the added presence of Expend4bles in the marketplace will also limit just how much more The Equalizer 3 will be able to stabilize this weekend. Look for The Equalizer to decline a very solid 35.0 percent this weekend to take fourth place with $4.7 million.
Warner Bros.'s Barbie has placed in fifth each of the past two weekends and with the aid of playing on IMAX screens this weekend, the blockbuster film is likely to take fifth place once again this weekend. Barbie being released on IMAX screens should lead to a boost at the box office this weekend, however the magnitude of that boost will likely be limited by Barbie not getting IMAX screens entirely to itself at many locations, by Barbie screening in a significant 378 fewer overall locations this weekend than last weekend and by the IMAX release coming so late in the film's theatrical run. Barbie may prove to be a bit of wild card at the box office this weekend, but a 9.9 percent increase over last weekend would transfer into a weekend take of $4.2 million.
This weekend also sees the wide release of NEON's horror film It Lives Inside and an expansion to moderate release (in 616 locations) for Sony's Dumb Money. Both films could find themselves on the bottom half of this weekend's top ten chart. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that It Lives Inside will start out with $2.4 million and that Dumb Money will gross $2.0 million this weekend (before the film expands to wide release next weekend).
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