Box Office Predictions: Barbenheimer Domination Continues
Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: August 11th, 2023 to August 13th, 2023
This weekend Warner Bros.'s Barbie will look to lead the box office for a fourth consecutive frame. Last weekend Barbie declined a very respectable 43.0 percent to take first place with $53.01 million (which represented the eleventh largest unadjusted third weekend gross of all-time). With the aid of continued strong word of mouth and Barbie holding onto a very high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend (due in part to Universal's The Last Voyage of the Demeter being this weekend's only new wide release), Barbie is likely to have a significantly stronger percentage hold this weekend than it had last weekend. A 34.0 percent decline would transfer into a first place take of $35.0 million for Barbie this weekend. That would represent the eighth largest fourth weekend gross of all-time and would move Barbie well past the $500 million domestic mark.
After finishing just behind Meg 2: The Trench for third place last weekend with $29.12 million; Universal's Oppenheimer is highly likely to return to second place this weekend. Last weekend Oppenheimer declined a very solid 37.6 percent and this weekend the film should hold up even better. Oppenheimer is likely to get a boost this weekend from this weekend providing a last chance for weekend moviegoers to see Oppenheimer on IMAX screens (before the film loses IMAX screens to Blue Beetle next weekend). In addition, Oppenheimer will be adding another 149 locations to its location count this weekend (for a total location count of 3,761). And with the addition of continued strong word of mouth and the mentioned relative lack of major new competition this weekend, everything is aligning quite nicely for Oppenheimer to have a terrific hold this weekend. Look for Oppenheimer to decrease a slim 24.5 percent this weekend for an impressive fourth weekend gross of $22.0 million.
Last weekend saw Warner Bros.'s Meg 2: The Trench and Paramount's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem debut in second and fourth place with respective weekend grosses of $30.00 million and $28.01 million. While the two films will likely remain fairly close to one another this weekend, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem should go ahead of Meg 2: The Trench in the rankings thanks in part to better word of mouth, better critical reviews and to last weekend's opening weekend performance being deflated by opening on a Wednesday (while Meg 2: The Trench opened on a Friday). Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem could decline 41.1 percent to place in third this weekend with $16.5 million, while Meg 2: The Trench could decrease 52.3 percent to follow in fourth with $14.3 million.
Universal's The Last Voyage of the Demeter represents this weekend's one major new wide release. The Dracula themed horror film was directed by André Øvredal and features Corey Hawkins, Aisling Franciosi, Liam Cunningham, David Dastmalchian and Javier Botet. The Last Voyage of the Demeter is playing in 2,715 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. On the average, critical reviews for the film have been negative. This past April Universal released the Dracula themed Renfield, which opened with a modest $8.03 million. It feels as though The Last Voyage of the Demeter is headed for an opening weekend performance in the same general area. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Last Voyage of the Demeter will open in fifth place this weekend with $8.6 million.
Meanwhile, Angel Studios' Sound of Freedom, Disney's Haunted Mansion, Paramount's Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One and A24's Talk to Me could find themselves closely bunched together for places sixth through ninth this weekend. Sound of Freedom could have the slight edge between the four, as a 34.0 percent decline would transfer into a weekend take of $5.0 million. Disney's Haunted Mansion could slow a sizable 46.8 percent to gross $4.9 million, Paramount's Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One could decrease just 27.4 percent to take in $4.8 million and A24's well-received Talk to Me may decline only 25.1 percent for a weekend gross of $4.7 million.
Read more at BoxOfficeReport.com.
