Box Office Predictions: A Ballad Of Songbirds, Snakes, And A Box Office Win

Box Office analysis is provided by Daniel Garris of BoxOfficeReport.com.

Weekend Box Office Predictions: November 17th, 2023 to November 19th, 2023

After an eight-year absence, The Hunger Games series returns to theatres this weekend with Lionsgate's release of The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes. The prequel to the original The Hunger Games films was directed by Francis Lawrence (who directed the last three The Hunger Games films) and stars Tom Blyth, Rachel Zegler, Hunter Schafer, Jason Schwartzman, Peter Dinklage, Josh Andrés Rivera and Viola Davis. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes is playing in 3,776 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes will also be playing on IMAX screens this weekend, though the film will be splitting IMAX screens with The Marvels at some locations. Similar to The Marvels last weekend, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes also isn't expected to come anywhere close to duplicating the success of its predecessor; in this case 2015's The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2, which debuted with $102.67 million and went on to gross $281.72 million domestically. The lack of series star Jennifer Lawrence as part of The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes appears to have significantly limited relative interest in the prequel. Also similar to The Marvels last weekend, critical reviews for The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes have been mixed (more so positive than negative). Also of note is that with a run-time of 157 minutes for the film and a number of other options currently in the marketplace, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes isn't receiving a huge amount of average showtimes per location this weekend for a higher profile release. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes will debut in first place this weekend with $42.0 million.

Also opening in wide release this weekend is Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Trolls Band Together. The third film in the Trolls series was directed by Walt Dohrn and once again features the vocal talent of Anna Kendrick and Justin Timberlake. Trolls Band Together is playing in 3,870 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. While 2016's Trolls had an impressive box office run (a debut of $46.58 million, while going on to finish with $154.03 million domestically), 2020's Trolls Word Tour only received a very limited theatrical release as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, before arriving on PVOD. Critical reviews for Trolls Band Together have also been mixed (and again more so positive than negative). Trolls Band Together will benefit this weekend from the lack of other animated films currently in wide release in the marketplace, but at the same time the film will soon face new direct competition from Disney's Wish, which enters the marketplace this coming Wednesday (November 22). As for this weekend, Trolls Band Together could debut in second place with a respectable $27.0 million.

After last weekend's lackluster $46.11 million start, the news doesn't look to be getting any better for Disney's The Marvels this weekend. Between mixed critical reviews, relatively mixed word of mouth (the film received a B rating on CinemaScore), significant initial front-loading through Wednesday, the film losing most of its IMAX showtimes to The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, four new wide releases entering the marketplace and MCU films having become more front-loaded in general in recent years, The Marvels is highly likely to experience a very sharp second weekend decline this weekend. Look for The Marvels to decline 69.6 percent this weekend to place in third with $14.0 million.

Just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday next week, Sony is releasing Thanksgiving this weekend. The R-rated horror film directed by Eli Roth is an adaptation of the Thanksgiving fake-trailer that appeared in 2007's Grindhouse (similar to the Machete films). The film's cast includes Patrick Dempsey, Addison Rae, Milo Manheim, Jalen Thomas Brooks, Nell Verlaque, Rick Hoffman and Gina Gershon. Thanksgiving is playing in 3,204 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM. While it has been quite some time now since the release of Grindhouse, there still appears to be some interest in Thanksgiving this weekend among horror fans (especially online). Thanksgiving could also get a bit of a boost from its critical reviews, which have been quite strong. At the same time, Thanksgiving could still prove to be the type of horror film that has limited appeal among more mainstream audiences. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Thanksgiving will debut in fourth place this weekend with $12.6 million.

Last weekend saw Universal and Blumhouse's Five Nights at Freddy's stabilize significantly by declining 52.6 percent to place in second with $8.999 million. As a PG-13 rated horror film skewing heavily towards younger moviegoers, Five Nights at Freddy's may not take that big of a direct hit from the added presence of Thanksgiving in the marketplace this weekend. Five Nights at Freddy's could decline 53.3 percent this weekend to round out the top five with $4.2 million.

Also of note this weekend are Focus's The Holdovers, which will be expanding from 778 locations to 1,475 locations and Disney and Searchlight's Next Goal Wins, which will be opening in 2,240 locations. Last weekend saw The Holdovers have a strong expansion into semi-wide release by grossing $3.22 million. Given that the Alexander Payne directed The Holdovers has received some of this year's strongest critical reviews of any film and that critical reviews for the Taika Waititi directed Next Goal Wins have been surprisingly mixed (and more so negative than positive at that), The Holdovers may end up having the slight edge over Next Goal Wins in this weekend's box office rankings, despite playing in significantly fewer locations. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Holdovers will increase 14.9 percent from last weekend to gross $3.7 million this weekend and that Next Goal Wins will debut with a modest $3.6 million.

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