In The Battle of Barbie Vs. Oppenheimer, Both Films Need A Win At The Box Office - Opinion
From Gaius Bolling
It has shaped up to be one of the more unlikely box office showdowns in recent memory but Barbie vs. Oppenheimer has fascinated moviegoers and cinephiles through most of their casting and developments. On the one hand, they don't have a lot in common. One is based on the Mattel line of toys while the other tells the true story of the theoretical physicist who helped develop the atomic bomb. On the other hand, it's their random similarities that have made them more alike as their release date draws closer. While the playful grudge match between these films has been fun, the industry really needs both of these projects to be successful to show that counterprogramming done right can score a win and that R-rated adult-skewing dramas still stand a chance to get butts in the seats.
In one corner we have Barbie: On the surface, there isn't much prestige going on here but digging a little deeper you have a movie that has the potential to be greatly financially successful while also likely scoring during awards season if the film has its witty tongue place firmly in its cheek. The pedigree begins behind the camera. Barbie is directed by Greta Gerwig from a screenplay she wrote with her partner Noah Baumbach. Gerwig has seen great success as a filmmaker with the films Lady Bird and Little Women, the former of which garnered her an Academy Award nomination for Best Director and Best Original Screenplay, while the latter landed her a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination. In both cases, the two films were also nominated for Best Picture. Baumbach is no slouch here either as he earned a Best Original Screenplay nomination for The Squid and the Whale and he received his second writing nomination for Best Original Screenplay for his work on Marriage Story, a film that also garnered a Best Picture nomination. With these two involved, it was clear that we would not be getting a typical live-action Barbie adaptation. There is something very special at play here.
In front of the camera, Barbie has a plethora of acting talent across its very stacked ensemble cast. Leading the charge are Oscar nominees Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, and supporting them is a who's who of Hollywood that includes Kate McKinnon, Issa Rae, America Ferrera, Rhea Perlman, Will Ferrell, Simu Liu, Alexandra Shipp, Emma Mackey, Dua Lipa, Michael Cera, and many many more. There are more names involved than can fit on a movie poster and it's a similarity it shares with its box office rival.
In the other corner, we have Oppenheimer: Much like Barbie, the prestige begins behind the camera. It's directed and written by Christopher Nolan, a rare filmmaker that arguably hasn't had a miss during his entire career as a director. The man lives and breathes all things cinema and all of his projects have been a testament to that. After a twenty-year partnership with Warner Bros. that has included hits such as The Dark Knight trilogy, Inception, Interstellar, and Dunkirk, Nolan took his talents to Universal Pictures after Nolan was very vocal with his disapproval that Warner Bros. switched to day-and-date release strategy for their entire 2021 film slate that saw their films opening in theaters and hitting streaming on HBO Max at the same time. This didn't affect Nolan directly, as he didn't let them dare do that to his 2020 film Tenet during the heart of the pandemic but it showed that the director didn't stand by the strategy for the sake of other filmmakers as well. Universal Pictures became the lucky studio to nab Nolan and the true story of J. Robert Oppenheimer became the subject matter of what would be his first film outside of Warner Bros. in over twenty years.
The cast of Oppenheimer is led by Cillian Murphy but Nolan is also working with a stacked ensemble cast that includes Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Robert Downey Jr., Florence Pugh, Rami Malek, Josh Hartnett, and so many more that would likely fill out the rest of this article. In a move that became a funny coincidence, Barbie and Oppenheimer typically announced new cast additions around the same time so it became a bit of a running joke that most of Hollywood was either appearing in Barbie or Oppenheimer. Once the two films were revealed to be coming out on the same day only made the match up all the more comedic fodder on social media. You've likely seen several posts with people asking what film you would be seeing first on July 21 while others have made posts about it being an unlikely, but entertaining, double feature.
The showdown got more interesting once box office tracking was released for both films last week. Barbie entered tracking with a potential $70-80 million opening weekend (with some saying $100 million is a real possibility) while Oppenheimer came in much lower with a projected $40 million opening. This solidified that Barbie is already victorious in their battle but before pitting them against each other moving forward, we should be hoping that there is room for both of them in this box office battle royale.
Adult-skewing films have been a tough sell in the post-pandemic. Not to say that many of them aren't good, it's just to say that the older demographic has become more careful and picky regarding what they will see on the big screen. Oppenheimer being a hit would go a long way to show that there is still a space for adult-skewing fare on the big screen. Nolan is a director that can get butts in the seats with his name alone and for those that doubt his powers might be limited with something like Oppenheimer, look no further than his 2017 film Dunkirk. The historical war film was also released on July 21 that year and managed to gross $527 worldwide, becoming the highest-grossing World War II film in the process. Of course, this was 2017 and pre-pandemic but if anyone can make a true-life story like this work in the heart of the summer blockbuster season, it's Christopher Nolan. Oppenheimer's potential success has an importance here for other filmmakers that are looking to get films like this made for major studios without the fear that they won't bring them a windfall.
Barbie feels more like a box office sure thing because it certainly looks more fun and crowd-pleasing but as we learned from much of the box office during the month of June, sometimes what looks like a sure thing could end up being a miss. Barbie matching its tracking and even exceeding it is a win for counterprogramming, as the film skews younger and more female than its box office counterpart, and it's an even bigger win for having female directors at the helm of studio films. It's a sad reality but some studios need to see you direct a big hit to give you another one and if Gerwig scores here, many doors will open for her with a variety of opportunities.
So I'm going to stand in solidarity with arguably our biggest movie star today, Tom Cruise. Despite being allegedly a little salty that Oppenheimer is taking up IMAX screens for three weeks while Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning - Part 1 only gets one week, Cruise has publicly made it clear he's showing his support to both Barbie and Oppenheimer and he's encouraging movie watchers to see both on the big screen. Margot Robbie and Greta Gerwig even showed their support for Oppenheimer by posting they'll both be seeing the film. At the end of the day, the industry needs different types of films to be successful so that we continue to get them made for a theatrical release. Yes, this little grudge match has been fun and it has made for some great jokes on social media but as the films get closer to releasing, I think the focus should be put on making them both successful. There is nothing wrong with both films taking a win here because a big L for one, wouldn't be good for the industry moving forward.
