Assessing The Best Supporting Actress Race At The Oscars - Awards Outlook
Photo from The Hollywood Reporter
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
This year’s race of Best Supporting Actress has some definite standouts and frontrunners, but there are more dark horses than in any other race, so this could be considered one of the most unpredictable at this year’s Oscars.
The front runner at this time is Zoe Saldana for Emilia Perez, which like Culkin in Supporting Actor is considered a bit of category fraud as her role could be considered a lead, but those issues seldom curb the momentum of an awards campaign. There is also the matter of Emilia Perez losing a bit of popularity after a lukewarm reception at NYFF, plus the narrative of Saldana finally venturing out of the realm of blockbuster films and no longer playing an alien, which could benefit her chances.
Another performer being considered from this film is Selena Gomez who is facing a great deal of praise for the performance, but two performers from the same film is tough. The Academy might also be a bit too stuffy to provide a nomination for a pop star, even if she has been earning good will for role on Only Murders in the Building.
Danielle Deadwyler was notably snubbed a few years ago for her performance in Till and for that narrative alone she will probably be nominated for her performance in The Piano Lesson. This is also because of all of the performances in the film, hers tended to garner the most favorable reaction and is the likeliest to receive the nomination.
The Brutalist has seen a huge rise in popularity since the festivals and will lead to several above the line nominations with several performance nominations, and while Felicity Jones is not the most buzzed about performance of the others in the film, the momentum this movie could have may easily lead to her being nominated.
The Nickel Boys was a huge hit for critics, but might be a bit too complex for audiences to fully grasp so that lack of popularity could negatively affect its awards chances. However, Aunjanuae Ellis-Taylor has built up a phenomenal amount of goodwill with the Academy and if anything in this film will be nominated, it will probably be this supporting performance.
The supporting performances of Conclave are a bit of wild card when it comes to awards potential; they stand out they are incredibly small in runtime and that is the case with Isabella Rossellini who reportedly is barely in the film, but has a few key moments that could get the attention of the Academy. She also is a legend who has yet to be nominated and this will be a key path to a nomination.
Saoirse Ronan is poised to have a terrific awards season with potential nominations for The Outrun in Lead Actress and Blitz in the supporting race. With such a promising season, these films should lead to nominations and potentially a win just to honor such a promising year.
After these performers, the next few are incredibly unlikely but still could be potential upsets. The popularity of Didi came and went, but Joan Chen is the standout performance that could easily be nominated with the right amount of campaigning.
Juror #2 is rising in the ranks of popularity and potentially being nominated for several awards, and while Toni Collette’s accent is bonkers, it might be enough to get her the attention of awards.
The three performers of His Three Daughters will all be running in supporting, which is an interesting choice; of the three, Natasha Lyonne is considered the most likely to be nominated, but is still a long shot.
Wicked is getting some great reactions from its previews, specifically the comedic performance of Ariana Grande. This seems like a type of performer and performance that is frequently not typically nominated and so it has a tough road ahead.
The Substance is another type of movie that is very seldom nominated for Oscars even though it deserves several, and while the likeliest nomination will go to Demi Moore in the lead category, there is a chance that Margaret Qualley catches the momentum for her supporting performance.
Joker: Foliê a Deux’s Oscar chances are pretty much in the dirt, but if there is any hope for the film to receive a nomination, it will be for Lady Gaga’s supporting performance; it has been considered the stand out, but the negative reaction for this film seems like way too much of a dark cloud, especially with her being underutilized.
A Complete Unknown looks like typical Oscar bait from its second trailer which could mean that it is trying too hard and may miss the mark, or it could be something that the Academy goes for. Several performers could get nominated, including Timothee Chalamet and Edward Norton, but Elle Fanning could also catch a nomination if the cast begins to stand out upon its release.
This race seems like it has a decent five, but still with plenty of opportunities for surprises along the way.