The Best Supporting Actor race has a fairly clear leader at this point with a few people nipping at his heels. There’s a bit more of a more open race toward the last few nominations, with the occasional dark horse possibly coming in for a surprise nomination.

A Real Pain is poised to be the darling film from the Sundance Film festival as it is probable to get several nominations. One of the likeliest nominations and ultimately a win is Kieran Culkin. The only weaknesses to his race is him being in the lead too early, but that has not been too large of an issue.

Sing Sing has become a giant question mark in the Oscar race in general with it getting a very limited run in theaters and the studio, A24, giving priority to other films they’ve purchased like The Brutalist. However, they are still campaigning hard for Sing Sing, especially the cast which is still earning a lot of good will like Clarence Maclin, who has a great story behind the scenes which could help his narrative toward a nomination. 

The other A24 film that is enjoying a tremendous awards narrative since the film festivals is The Brutalist, which has jumped to the front of the line as an awards frontrunner. Several performers are getting plenty of Oscar buzz and one of the most likely to receive a nomination is Guy Pearce. Pearce has had a tremendous career in both film and television and has won an Emmy, but somehow has never been nominated for an Oscar. Therefore he is definitely due for receiving the praise and, from what people have said about this performance, this is the one to do it. 

While Gladiator II did not build up a case within the festivals, the early reactions to the film have been very positive with some of the best fanfare around Denzel Washington. Even when Washington is in bad movies, he himself has never been bad and has ended up nominated for forgettable films, so there is a good chance of him getting a nomination here.  

Conclave is poised to do very well at the Oscars after its mixed-positive reaction at the festivals and the entire cast has been looking very strong for award’s narratives. After the festivals it seemed to be clear that, while Ralph Fiennes is the standout, most of the other supporting performances were not given enough attention from the film to be recognized. However, notwithstanding this analysis, Stanley Tucci has still stood out as a very likely potential nominee as someone beloved by the Academy and someone due for another nomination.

Samuel L Jackson’s performance in The Piano Lesson is another case that seemed like an absolute lock for a nomination, but then when critics and audiences saw the film at some of the fall festivals, his performance seemed to disappear in the background, thus it likely will not catch the eye of the Academy. It has been thirty years since Jackson was last nominated for an Oscar and he is a huge fixture in the industry, so this nomination could still happen, but it has certainly lost a great deal of momentum.  

The Apprentice seems like a movie that not many people want to think about given that a film about Donald Trump is not the escape that most are desiring. However, Jeremy Strong is still delivering what is reported to be a terrific performance and could potentially break through the Trump fatigue. The film is not exactly gaining the traction needed to catch the attention of the Academy at this time, though. 

Anora is one of the awards buzz leaders at this time and it’s likely to get several nominations, including Picture, Actress, Director, and Screenplay. If the film overperforms, there is a chance that some of the supporting cast could also catch a nomination from the momentum, specifically Mark Eydelshteyn and Yura Borisov as they are starting to get slight buzz and potential shout outs. 

Two other performers that could potentially grab a nomination if their film begins to pick up steam are Peter Sarsgaard and John Magaro for September 5th, which is beginning to feel like the little film that could and potentially garner more awards prospects. Sarsgaard has yet to be nominated for an Oscar after an incredibly illustrious career and Magaro has found himself on the awards buzz radar after his performance in last year’s Past Lives.

As we inch closer and closer to the nominations announcements in January, the nominees seem more and more likely, but there are plenty of opportunities for surprises. Time will tell.

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