Barbenheimer At The Oscars - Awards Outlook
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Barbenheimer at the Oscars
This weekend cinema fans rejoiced and lovingly took part in the phenomenon known as Barbenheimer where Barbie and Oppenheimer were released together to spectacular Box Office results and brought many back to the theater the first time.
Normally, blockbusters released in the summer do not spell Oscar, but lately the release of a film has not mattered as much especially with winners, CODA and Everything Everywhere All at Once both being released in the first half of the year and blockbuster hits like Top Gun Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water being nominated for Best Picture last year. It is likely that both of these films will be Oscar heavy hitters with Oppenheimer being the front runner in several categories. Also with the Actor’s and Writer’s strike, several movies are getting moved to 2024 paving the way for films in the first half of the year to end up with more nominations than expected.
Oppenheimer has easily been established as one of the best of the year, with a narrative that director Christopher Nolan is due for an Oscar as someone that has been synonymous with the modern movie classic. There is no doubt that this film will be one of the nominations for Best Picture and Best Director and is currently the front runner for each award. Barbie will be a bit more of a stretch for these two awards as it does not exactly spell the typical Oscar movie but with Greta Gerwig having the best premiere weekend of any female director and the film being popular enough, it could definitely end up in either of these nominations.
Both of these films are considered Adapted Screenplays even though Barbie seems a bit more like an Original Screenplay, it is technically based on the characters from Mattel. (For more on that Adapted Screenplay rule, click HERE.) Barbie is a wild movie and wild screenplay but this is what the Screenplay Oscar is for. Oppenheimer has a bold storytelling structure that manages to nominate a gigantic novel that almost seemed unadaptable.
Both of these films had the advantage of having deep benches of casts which means many actors will be voting for the film and especially opportunities for the actors to be nominated. Barbie is a bit of a silly movie but Margot Robbie is transcending the goofiness of the role doing something very impressive with a difficult character and so she will definitely be in the running for Best Actress, she is also someone who is no stranger to nominations. Ryan Gosling is also frequently nominated and while his performance is more comedic he also has the chance to be nominated but his category of Lead or Supporting might not be clear.
Nolan is not exactly known for his performances getting nominated in his features with the huge exception being Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight. However, at this point, it seems almost impossible not to see nominations for Cillian Murphy, Robert Downey Jr, and Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer. This movie does not work without Cillian Murphy in the lead and he throws the movie on his back so him getting a lead actor nomination makes quite a bit of sense. He also has the narrative of being due for a nomination as someone who has been in the background of most Nolan movies and has generated quite a following in cult hits like Peaky Blinders. Emily Blunt is someone else that has been due for an Oscar nomination and has definitely come close in previous years and in this role she definitely has her big Oscar scene which could easily grab her a nomination in Best Supporting Actress. While Robert Downey Jr has two nominations already, he has never come close to winning and his entire narrative of coming back from scandal in the nineties, becoming a Marvel star, and now diving into an amazing performance could easily lead to a nomination and a win.
It is expected that Oppenheimer is going to dominate in the technical categories. There is no denying that the film is a visual accomplishment for so many reasons and Hoyte van Hoytema has been an established cinematographer that has only been nominated once for the previous Nolan film of Dunkirk and there is no doubt that he will be receiving at least a nomination for Best Cinematography this year.
Ludwig Goransson has been a very established film composer especially with his previous win for Black Panther but this film’s score is what helps it achieve every moment and feeling the film is going for and therefore there is no doubt the film will be at least nominated for Best Original Score.
While Oppenheimer is going to dominate the Best Original Score category, Barbie will be dominating Best Original Song with a soundtrack that has already gotten plenty of attention. From the hilarious “I’m Just Ken” to genuinely amazing bops like Dua Lipa’s “Dance the Night”, there are several songs that can easily be nominated in this category.
There are a few other movies that might be taking the accomplishment of Best Visual Effects but Oppenheimer accomplishing what it accomplished without the use of CGI is definitely a narrative that could lead to a nomination and even more impressive is the Sound in the film and so there is no doubt that it will at least receive a nomination for Best Sound.
Sometimes the Oscars don’t award the actual Best, but instead award the most and in this case the Best and Most Editing belongs to Oppenheimer which tells so much story as it is blended beautifully. It is also frequently a constant that when a film has a Sound nomination they also have a higher likelihood of receiving an Editing nomination. On the other hand, the film also deserves Best Makeup and Hairstyling for all of the amazing subtleties it presents for the characters but because it's not as obvious it has the chance of getting passed up for this nomination, but it will hopefully at least be on the short list.
When it comes to Best Production Design, Barbie created an entire fantasy world that is authentic to the world of the toy and still creative to the film which gives it a great chance of a nomination while Oppenheimer also brings in a past world with just as much authenticity. This same situation goes to the costume design which usually goes for films of the past and fantasy films which are the case for Oppenheimer and Barbie, respectively.
It’s always nuts to think of Oscars this much in advance but the reception and popularity of these two films and the success that they had in the theater will look kindly on the Academy come nomination time.