Awards Outlook - Looking At The Technical Categories At The Oscars
Photo from National Film and Sound Archive
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
The following categories that are going to be explored have many different names ranging from the Technical Awards to the Below the Line categories and while these are not given great importance these are the type of categories that are the little things that make up each film and are all of great import. We may not know many of the names of these people and may have never seen them before, but they are no less important to every aspect of cinema.
At this point, the battle for Best Costume Design is between Elvis and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, with Elvis getting the slightest edge. There is always the chance that Everything Everywhere All at Once is going to dominate and pick up the award for being so fantastical, but Elvis is also slated to win many of the technicals.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling is truly up for grabs on several different levels and it may come down to what wins Best Actor as that will help represent the transformation. Therefore, it will probably be between Elvis and The Whale for the transformations of Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser, respectively. However, The Batman is still an undeniable and popular transformation and could easily grab the prize, even if its other nominations are limited, this is a category that doesn't depend on other nominations.
John Williams isn’t exactly someone who is due for an Oscar as he has plenty throughout his house. However, as he is nearing the end of his career this could be a legacy win for his work in The Fabelmans. The music of All Quiet on the Western Front stands out, but it just slipped into the nominations. However Best Original Score will probably go to Babylon, which didn’t perform well in the nominations; this is the category that it has the best chance of winning.
Best Sound is another category that is very difficult to predict. It could be the probable Visual Effects winner in Avatar: The Way of Water but it seems like the wealth throughout the technicals will be spread out a bit more. This category could frequently go to a musical and while Elvis is not exactly considered a musical there is quite a bit of music playing, which makes it a draw to win this category. However, this could also go to an action movie and will probably go to Top Gun: Maverick as this will be a way to honor the film.
Best Cinematography is the most baffling category of them all with the snub of Top Gun: Maverick which was considered the front runner, this category is now incredibly up in the air. If Elvis is as popular as it is seeming after its screenings than this film may dominate the technicals, but the most likely winner will be All Quiet on the Western Front, with the film getting several nominations including Best Picture this is the only category that the film comes the closest to winning, and therefore it has the best chance. It also helps that it is insanely beautiful and a visual feast.
The Oscar sometimes goes to the film that isn't the best in that category but to the film that has the MOST and while Elvis does not have the Best Film Editing they definitely take some crazy chances and that has the potential to be awarded. Everything Everywhere All at Once has some crazy but great editing and it is needed to sustain that film, and as the front runner for Best Picture the Best Film Editing category is frequently synonymous to this category which marks it as a definite chance to win. Top Gun: Maverick also has outstanding editing as sometimes the Best Editing is what is not noticed.
While Lady Gaga still has plenty of clout to bring her song “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick to a win, but after its win at the Globes and so much good will behind the film it seems that RRR will take the win of Best Original Song for “Naatu Naatu.” Songs from International films are very popular in this category and it seems like this will take the top prize.
There is not a clear standout in the category of Best Production Design and therefore this could be the type of category that honors a film that did well in the nominations more than the specific category. Therefore this will probably go to either Elvis or All Quiet on the Western Front, but this one is probably up for anyone. However, Babylon is winning quite a few precursors in this category and could achieve the win.
Best Visual Effects is going to Avatar: The Way of Water, there is literally nothing else to say. It is the easiest category to predict. Move along.
The Short film categories are often the hardest to predict but it should be easy to say that they often go to the most popular streaming services as they have the ability to campaign the most. With that logic, The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse will probably win Best Animated Short with the backing of AppleTV+, which got CODA to Best Picture last year and does not have any other film they need to focus on this year.
An Irish Goodbye is getting the most buzz for the category of Best Live Action Short, but these never are the clearest categories to predict. There are two films being backed by Netflix in the category of Best Documentary Short in The Elephant Whisperers and The Martha Mitchell Effect and this category sometimes favors the more pleasant films and nature films which would lead to a win for The Elephant Whisperers and yet it really could go anywhere, much like the other two short categories.
This has been a difficult year to predict the technical awards as there are several front runners in each category. What will be clear is whatever starts to win several awards on that night could possibly telegraph what will win some of the above the line categories including the famed Best Picture.