Awards Watch - Analyzing The Performance Nominations At The Oscars
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Some of the most watched categories at the Oscars are the performance awards, which are the awards where you most frequently get to put a face to the name. While there are clear front runners in every category, there is only one category with a clear lock of who will win come that night.
Best Supporting Actor is the easiest category to predict. Ke Huy Quan has won virtually all of the crucial precursor awards for his performance and has also made some grateful and heartfelt speeches throughout the award seasons becoming one of the darlings that everyone is loving. At this point Quan is such a lock that there really isn’t even a potential spoiler among the rest of the nominees.
On the other hand, the Best Actor category is the most impossible to predict at this point. The smart money is on Austin Butler for Elvis. Elvis is easily one of the favorites of Academy voters and voters always love to vote for someone playing a real person, especially a musician. The one thing working against him is that he is a relatively young actor and Best Actor often goes to a more seasoned veteran. However with all five nominees being first time nominees, there isn’t really someone who is “due”.
Brendan Fraser has been hanging on for a while for his performance in The Whale. The controversy behind him being in a fat suit has definitely been holding him back along with the film missing a Best Picture and Screenplay nomination does take momentum away from Fraser. However, he is someone who has made gracious speeches when he wins awards, while also having a heartwarming narrative as someone who has returned to the screen after being black balled for various reasons.
Colin Farrell also has the come from being story with his nomination for The Banshees of Inisherin and definitely has the chance of winning as he has won the Golden Globe which is the mark of a possible win. Also, a Best Actor win would be one of the ways that the Academy could honor The Banshees of Inisherin, just in case it falls short in Best Screenplay to Everything Everywhere All at Once.
While Best Actress has a clear front runner in Cate Blanchett for Tar, it being her third Oscar is something that is holding her back on a narrative front. In order for a third Oscar to be won it has to be for a performance that is undeniable like Blanchett’s Tar or it has to be for an absolute screen legend, which is a category that Blanchett also falls under.
However, Michelle Yeoh is slowly gaining popularity for Everything Everywhere All at Once and many people want to see her win, including Blanchett who is practically asking for people to vote for her. It will all depend on how much popularity Everything Everywhere All at Once can muster and if its momentum is for real.
One of the more interesting theories is that there will be a steady group of people voting for Andrea Riseborough for To Leslie as backlash for the investigation that occurred after her unexpected nomination. While this does not mean that Riseborough will win this could take away votes from the frontrunner of Blanchett paving the way for Yeoh to win.
Finally, Best Supporting Actress also is a clear front runner in Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. While her performance is powerful and moving, this win will be all about getting the beloved Bassett her first statue, which is something that the acting community would love to give her. However, the fact that this performance is in a Marvel movie does hold her back slightly as there are some pretentious voters that are entirely against the superhero film culture.
If the Marvel stain grows to large for a Bassett win, there is the slightest chance that Kerry Condon could slip in for the Banshees of Inisherin, while she has not won many precursor awards, she has been present everywhere in terms of nominations and if Farrell ends up losing Best Actor this will be the one chance to honor a very decorated cast that gave amazing performances together.
These predictions are being presented before the Screen Actors Guild awards which will solidify the front runners or make things even more confusing. But regardless, very few races are fully solidified and there is plenty of time for changes in momentum and plenty of interesting surprises.