Awards Watch - Dissecting The Animation, International, And Documentary Oscar Categories
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Three categories that are often separate from the rest of the films are Best Animated, Best International, and Best Documentary. While these films sometimes get other nominations, especially this year, they often ride in the side car to the other categories, and frequently have crossovers. This year there are not many crossovers and with the exception of one film, there are not many nominations in other categories besides these.
Of these three categories, the most obvious front runner is in International Feature with All Quiet on the Western Front being the most probable winner. It’s a general rule that when a film is nominated for Best Picture and International Feature it will at least win Best International Feature. This film also over performed in nominations in many of the technical categories and therefore is definitely the most popular.
EO and Close were expected nominations and The Quiet Girl was the large surprise and for these three movies the nomination is the real win. Argentina, 1985 did win the Golden Globe in the same category but that is because RRR and All Quiet on the Western Front most likely split the votes and with RRR no longer in its way due to lack of qualifications and Decision to Leave also no longer in its way, All Quiet has the best chance.
It seems almost crazy that the Pixar film is not the front runner in the Best Animated Feature category, but Turning Red came out so early that it lost a lot of its steam. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, is quite a favorite among many, but its live action components may cause some voters to be hesitant. Puss in Boots has been the Box Office favorite and Dreamworks often does well in this category. The Sea Beast is the most pleasant surprise and therefore the victory is in the nomination
The winner of Best Animated Feature will almost definitely be Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. Guillermo is a great campaigner and is beloved by the Academy not to mention that the film is a stop motion animated film, which is a frequent winner of this category.
The hardest of these three categories to predict will be the Best Documentary Feature. This year the front runner has been All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, but this film did not meet many of the precursor nominations. All that Breathes is another film that has been getting quite a bit of buzz and belonging to HBO is a great sign for the film. A House made of Splinters is definitely the most unexpected nomination and therefore is the least likely to get a win.
Fire of Love seems to be a real front runner, but documentaries that are mainly raw footage do not do very well in this category. However, Summer of Soul’s win last year could mean that the trend is shifting. Navalny is another film that could definitely rise in popularity especially with the recent news regarding the war in Ukraine. However, at this point, there is no clear front runner for the Documentary category.
It will be interesting to see if momentum shifts for any of these categories but the Animated and International seem like locks, with a couple of possibilities in the Documentary category.