Awards Outlook - Looking At The Emmys’ Drama Series Races
Photo from HBO
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Emmys Best Drama Series
There is no denying that Succession is going to dominate in the drama categories this year. It is in its final season, and this final season is being lauded as one of the best of the series. Even though it has won several times in the past there isn’t much competition facing it. Therefore, this season of Succession will not only be nominated for Best Drama Series but will also win.
Even though there is a bit of controversy in this show changing from a limited series to a drama series, the second season of The White Lotus continued to dominate in quality and popularity and will definitely have a spot as a nomination.
House of the Dragon and The Last of Us were also huge big budget hits on HBO that dominated the Sunday night viewing and therefore they garnered quite a bit of attention and will have nominations for many technical awards, acting awards, and probably nominations for the top prize for Best Drama Series.
Andor is the critical darling which unfortunately did not end up being as popular as the other shows that are getting buzz in this main category. However, its quality and production scale could cause it to get a possible nomination.
Better Call Saul is always the bridesmaid and will once again be invited to the wedding party again this year but will still probably not be a bride. The Crown, The Mandalorian, and Yellowstone have all either received buzz or nominations in the past but all of them have also had a dip in quality and critical reception and while they still might be nominated based on the clout from previous seasons.
In most of these categories, including Best Actor in a Drama Series, be prepared to hear Succession quite a bit. This year Kieran Culkin has moved up to lead actor in the popular show and will have to face past winner Jeremy Strong and even though Strong has already won an Emmy and Culkin has not they are both performances worthy of a win.
However, while the Succession boys have a high chance of winning there can be a potential upset for Bob Odenkirk in Better Call Saul who has been snubbed for the role so many times and has given so much including recovering from a literal heart attack while filming. It will be very difficult to imagine him going home empty handed.
Pedro Pascal was the face of the popular series The Last of Us and had a beautiful performance at the center that was complex and will easily get nominated. It will be difficult to ignore Jeff Bridges this year in his performance for The Old Man which was powerful but also as the man came back from a cancer and covid diagnosis that is a powerful enough narrative to garner a nomination.
Paddy Considine strangely did not receive a Golden Globe nomination for House of the Dragon and yet he is a respected stage actor who gives an amazing performance in this first season. There is a chance that he will tragically be passed up for a nomination but he definitely deserves it.
In a field of many amazing performances, Diego Luna was the only one to receive a Golden Globe nomination for the first season of Andor and while that does entirely forecast an Emmy nomination, it's a decent indicator. Matthew Rhys received a nomination for the first season of Perry Mason and with this season rising in popularity there is a chance he comes back onto the nomination list.
The Boys has been an Emmy darling in the past and while the seasons seem to get stranger and stranger Antony Starr continues to put in amazing work in the series and while it is highly unlikely he gets a nomination he should be at least on the radar of consideration. Another performance that is deserving but unlikely for a nomination would be Gary Oldman for Slow Horses as the series is not as popular, but the main performance has plenty of star power to possibly and hopefully be noticed.
Melanie Lynskey was nominated last year for Yellowjackets and was fairly close to winning and with Zendaya out of the way she could be the clear winner for Best Actress in a Drama Series. Her greatest competition is Sarah Snook in Succession, especially if Succession goes through one of those years where it over performs and also because Snook has been due for a win for some time now.
Emma D’arcy will probably get a nomination for House of the Dragon and could be the dark horse winner as someone who can make history as the first non-binary performer to win in the category. While The Crown was a bit of a disappointing season all the depictions of Queen Elizabeth in this series have been nominated and therefore there is no doubt that Imelda Staunton will be nominated for her depiction
Bella Ramsey was incredibly impressive in The Last of Us and will most definitely be able to get a nomination for the first season. Elisabeth Moss has won this award in the past as her iconic character in The Handmaid’s Tale and while the show is flailing in popularity, it is having a resurgence in quality and could mean she might grab a quick nomination.
Bad Sisters will be criminally passed over for most Emmys and yet the best chance it has for a nomination is the television veteran Sharon Horgan. Hilary Swank was nominated for a Golden Globe for the basic cable show Alaska Daily and while that is the only time most of us even heard of that show, there is a chance that she could grab that nomination again for the Emmys.
The Diplomat was just released and is coming out with a great deal of popularity and while its later in the year release may hinder it from several nominations Keri Russell might have enough clout to grab a nomination. This goes the same for Betty Gilpin in Mrs. Davis which is a very strange show where Gilpin could be the stand out.
Matthew Macfadyen was the winner for Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series last year for Succession and yet he is also the front runner for this year turning in just as great of a performance. In terms of other Succession stars, Nicholas Braun has been nominated previously but hasn't been much of a standout this season. Alan Ruck has never been nominated and has definitely earned some recognition especially this season and therefore could possibly be nominated. Another star that stands out this season was Alexander Skarsgard as a formidable presence and unique energy. Finally, while he has been nominated many times, Brian Cox has yet to win and his move to the supporting category this season could be what helps him win.
Giancarlo Esposito and Jonathan Banks have never won for their roles in Better Call Saul and yet their roles were not standouts in the final season. However, they could both still be nominated due to their legacy to the series. Of the supporting performances in The White Lotus, F Murray Abraham is getting the most buzz for a nomination even though he has had some recent scandals that could hold him back. Michael Imperioli has the chance to possibly grab a nomination in the show as well for his performance
Stellan Skarsgard was criminally not nominated for a Golden Globe for his performance in Andor and yet if the series gets some Emmys momentum then Skarsgard could grab a nomination. This goes the same for Matt Smith who definitely stood out as one of the favorite performances in House of the Dragon.
John Lithgow did great work in a dialogue heavy performance in The Old Man opposite Jeff Bridges and Jonathan Pryce from The Crown is playing a role that led previous actors to nominations and wins and could definitely grab a nomination for his role especially with the potential momentum of the series.
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series is a two woman race between a previous winner in Jennifer Coolidge from The White Lotus who elevated her performance from the previous season and the criminally and previously snubbed Rhea Seehorn from Better Call Saul who is due for a win.
Aubrey Plaza is another definite nomination from The White Lotus cast who also is incredibly deserving. Meanwhile Megan Fahey might be a long shot for her complicated performance but would also be deserving of the nomination.
While there are not many performances for Succession in this category, J Smith Cameron has been a past nominee and is giving another nomination worthy performance in its final season. Another performance deserving is Chrstina Ricci in Yellowjackets which is easily the largest standout as the craziest character.
Like other roles and performances from The Crown Lesley Manville is playing a character where previous iterations were nominated and has the chance of grabbing the nomination. However, Elizabeth Debicki is scary accurate in her portrayal as Princess Diana and will likely get most of the attention which will help garner a nomination.
The Drama categories may be full of well deserved Succession wins and nominations but there are plenty of challengers in each category that could make things interesting by the end of that exciting September night.