Awards Outlook - Looking At The Emmys’ Comedy Categories
Photo from The Hollywood Reporter
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Emmys Comedy Categories
Like Succession is for the Drama categories, Ted Lasso is the presumptive front runner in the Comedy categories, but with its drop in quality and popularity the wins for the past two seasons might not be enough for it to win for Best Comedy Series this year.
Lasso’s two main competitors this year are The Bear and Abbott Elementary. The former being a new show that was a culture phenomenon and was released almost a year ago which might be its only problem. However, Abbott Elementary is one of the more famous cable shows and so there is a branch of the television academy that wants a series in that setting to see success.
Only in the Murders in the Building and Barry are past nominees and winners who will most definitely find themselves nominated again. Barry is always shouldering the controversy of whether or not the show is truly a comedy and in my opinion it is and while Only Murders in the Building is fairly muted in its popularity and quality has never waned.
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel has definitely dropped the enthusiasm of its reception but in its final season there is a chance the series could be honored with a nomination. Poker Face was another huge cultural and critical hit but the fact that it resides at Peacock means that it might have a huge problem as that streaming service has the least amount of notoriety by far.
What We Do in the Shadows has been an Emmy darling in the past and could easily be nominated. Wednesday and Shrinking will probably get a few performance nominations which could end up bringing the nomination for the series.
Atlanta has been beloved by the Emmys before but these last few seasons have gotten quite strange turning off the general audience. The Great has gotten Emmy love in the past and has the chance to possibly get a series nomination but it's not likely. Reservation Dogs has deserved Emmy love for its first and second season and while it’s unlikely that it will grab that nomination it's still possible.
There are five solid prospects for the nomination of Best Actor in a Comedy Series but a few threats that could possibly dethrone or even join those five. Jason Sudeikis is riding on the Ted Lasso momentum and is the front runner in this category but Jeremy Allen White could very likely take the top prize for The Bear and will definitely be nominated.
Another definite prospect is Bill Hader in Barry as he approaches the final season and has been a past winner. Two other past nominations are the pair from Only Murders in the Building, Steve Martin and Martin Short who both were nominated in the previous season and definitely deserve their nominations this year.
Shrinking is a populus pick that has been beloved and with Jason Segel being the face of the series he could definitely pick up a nomination. Donald Glover was nominated in the previous and least popular third season of Atlanta and so he could once again pick a nomination for the fourth and final season. Finally Nicholas Hoult is easily the standout of The Great and a previous nominee who could possibly and should definitely be nominated again.
Quinta Brunson in Abbott Elementary is an easy front runner for Best Actress in a Comedy Series. She has been celebrated for creating the show and there is really no clear competition to stand in the way of her win.
The largest challenger for Brunson is Jenna Ortega for her portrayal of the iconic character Wednesday which is easily the best part of the show and Ortega’s stock continues to rise from so many projects. The performer with the best narrative is Christina Applegate in Dead to Me who not only deserves a nomination for her performance but is also retiring due to illness and has been outspoken about these issues in a refreshing fashion.
Like the series The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, the lead actress Rachel Brosnahan has won in the past and will probably be honored for it being the last season. While Poker Face is definitely flying under the radar of popularity, Natasha Lyonne is definitely a familiar face at this award show and will almost definitely get a nomination for this show.
Meanwhile Selena Gomez criminally did not receive a nomination for the first season of Only Murders in the Building and will hopefully and almost definitely receive a makeup nomination for the second season, especially after her Golden Globes nomination. Elle Fanning for The Great and Bridget Everett for Somebody Somewhere will most likely be on the outside looking in, but either could end up grabbing a surprise nomination that would also be well deserved.
There are several different groups of performances that have the potential to get nominated for Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series, especially the group of boys from Ted Lasso and Barry. However the front runner is a performance that has easily evolved from its first season and is the example of a talented comedic performance which is Tyler James Williams in Abbott Elementary who could swing to the win coasting on the momentum of his Golden Globe win.
Brett Goldstein has won twice in the past for his performance in Ted Lasso and so there is no doubt that he will get a nomination and possibly win. Ted Lasso easily overperformed in this category in the last two seasons, but there are a few more shows this year that the series has to compete with. Nick Mohammed might grab a nomination as they are putting a lot into his character. One of the longshot nominations, would be to Phil Dunster who’s character has evolved into something wholesome in Ted Lasso and should be nominated.
The three supporting performers in Barry, Henry Winkler, Anthony Carrigan, and Stephen Root have been nominated in the past with Henry Winkler winning and now these three in the final season are all doing a lot with their characters, including Root who has gone silent recently. It is not surprising at all if all three end up on the list of nominations.
Of all of the performances in Shrinking, the performance that has the best chance of being nominated is Harrison Ford who did amazing as a legend in unfamiliar territory. Tony Shaloub has been nominated and won on numerous occasions with The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel and while the series has cooled he could easily grab a nomination like many of the other performers from this series.
There was a time when many actors would be nominated for Saturday Night Live in this category but it seems like that trend will quiet down this year and while Keanan Thompson is legendary, Bowen Yang seems likely to be the only performer to grab the nomination for this show as one of it’s top performers.
Brian Tyree Henry is cruising in after his Oscar nomination and Atlanta is facing its final season and this was the role that put him in the stratosphere so a nomination would make sense. There is also a chance that The Bear ends up over performing and Ebon Moss-Bachrach could grab a collateral nomination which would be deserved but it’s not a huge chance.
Sheryl Lee Ralph brought the house down when she won the award for Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series for her performance in Abbott Elementary and her performance is just as good while also winning the Golden Globe and so there is little doubt of her grabbing the win this year as well.
Janelle James will definitely be nominated for Abbott Elementary much like last season and there is a chance that she could grab the win this year as her character evolves and is loved. More of a longshot nomination in this series would be for Lisa Ann Walter who puts a lot into her character and is easily a fan favorite.
Hannah Waddingham has previously won and Juno Temple has previously been nominated for Ted Lasso and Waddingham has been a good lock for a nomination this season as well, while Temple has not done much in this season and has a riskier chance.
Ayo Edebiri was one the best surprising performances in The Bear and some would argue is the main crux of emotion and there is a very strong chance that she will get a nomination for this series.
Alex Borstein has won for her role in The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel has been nominated even more and while she is not likely to win this year, she is likely to get a nomination. Sarah Goldberg is a bit less likely to grab a nomination for her stunning performance in Barry, but if Barry is able to get even the slightest bit of extra love she could end up being nominated as she has also been here before and deserves to be there again.
Cecily Strong has a one two punch of Saturday Night Live and Scmigadoon but neither are likely to win her a nomination this year and while Jessica Williams deserves to be nominated for her performance in Shrinking it is not looking likely but would be great to see.
The comedy performances will diversify more than they had in the past and there will be a few legacy nominations with some new series definitely making waves.