Awards Watch - Oscar Nominations Reactions
Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
The nominations are in and the Oscar season has hit its final level until the official ceremony in more than a month and with it came many expectations but also plenty of surprises.
First things first, the moment you have all been waiting for… How good I did on my predictions! I got 82 out of 105 nominations properly predicted giving me a 78% accuracy rating, which is pretty decent, but could still be better.
Everything Everywhere All at Once leads the nominations with eleven getting many of the above the line nominations with several technicals as well. Following behind is The Banshees of Inisherin and All Quiet on the Western Front with nine and Elvis at eight.
Paul Dano was the first big snub not getting nominated for his role in The Fabelmans but his co-star Judd Hirsch managed to snag a nomination for a much smaller role in the same film. Dano had the more subtle performance which sometimes flies under the radar of the Academy and Hirsch gives the more showy performance. Meanwhile, Brian Tyree Henry got the nomination for Causeway in his stead which was one of the biggest surprises of the morning but a well deserved surprise regardless.
Easily the most criminal snub and one that will go down in history as an embarrassment for the Academy was Danielle Deadwyler not getting a Lead Actress nomination for Till, giving a performance that is deserving of a win nevermind a nomination. This could have been because of a lack of name recognition, poor campaigning, people not wanting to see the movie, or a lack of precursor nominations but regardless it is a pretty rough mistake. Ana De Armas getting a nomination for Blonde wasn’t much of a surprise but she managed to get the nomination despite being in a fairly despised movie. The biggest surprise was the nomination for Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie, mainly because it is a movie no one heard of until about a week ago when a very manufactured and deliberate campaign took place for it, which seemed to surprisingly work. Riseborough deserves the nomination, but there's no doubt that it came from transparent politicking. There will soon be a lot of campaigns like this in the future so get ready for them.
Over the past few years there has been a trend of either a director of an international film or a woman director or both in the Best Director category but this year neither were nominated for the most part. Sarah Polley for Women Talking and Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front both probably came fairly close but the only one close is Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness who is an international director but not necessarily for an international film. James Cameron not getting the DGA nomination should have been a more clear barometer of his snub as that was the case.
All Quiet on the Western Front absolutely rocked the technical nominations helping drive it to a Best Picture nomination and with Decision to Leave getting snubbed from the International Feature race this makes for a fairly clear path for All Quiet on the Western Front to at least win Best International Feature and maybe pick up a few technicals with Argentina, 1985 being its greatest threat.
There were few snubs and surprises in the Best Supporting Actress category but it was nice to see Hong Chau get a nomination for The Whale with her late surge in popularity. However, The Whale didn’t do as well as expected with it missing an expected Adapted Screenplay and Picture nomination. Unfortunately, this means that there were no performances in Women Talking that were nominated and Dolly De Leon missed the nomination for Triangle of Sadness.
You would think after they gave Diane Warren an honorary oscar this year that the ridiculous trend of nominating Diane Warren for Best Original Song for movies that barely exist and yet here she is with another nomination for a song from a movie that doesn’t even warrant a mention.
The Cinematography category was the most unpredictable of the technicals with Bardo getting its lone nomination instead of anything for International Feature or Director. Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water getting passed up for that nomination was also a tremendous shock. The Avatar sequel easily underperformed by only getting three nominations even though one of them is the top prize of Best Picture.
Woman King and She Said were losing a great deal of momentum toward voting time but it was surprising to see them get snubbed out entirely and not even getting a costume nomination or a lone screenplay nomination respectively.
Triangle of Sadness had a great nomination morning as it was expected to get one for screenplay but ended up over performing and getting the nomination for Picture and Director as well.
Top Gun: Maverick received a somewhat expected but still pretty baffling screenplay nomination. Glass Onion also got a nomination for its screenplay but missed out on several technical awards and Janelle Monae for Best Supporting Actress but all of those were pretty solid long shots.
The Animated Feature category went about as planned except for a surprising and well deserved nomination for The Sea Beast which upset the Dreamworks blockbuster The Bad Guys and My Father’s Dragon from the previously undefeated (in nominations) Cartoon Saloon.
Babylon had quite the disappointing showing as it was planning on getting several technical nominations and a possible Best Picture nomination. It still got the expected Costume, Score, and Production Design but could have gotten many more.
The Batman got three well deserved categories of Sound, Visual Effects, and Makeup but deserved a few more particularly Cinematography and Score. However, considering its lack of momentum and very early release it was a victory that it was able to get anything.
Women Talking got into the Best Picture race even though it was losing momentum and it only received one other nomination for its screenplay. Tar overperformed in the nominations, getting the expected Picture, Screenplay, Actress and Director, but several more technicals than expected.
RRR was not allowed in the Best International Film category as India foolishly didn’t submit it for their film. However, it was disappointing that it did not receive any other craft nominations besides Best Original Song which was earned and it will hopefully win.
With a bit more than a month left until the big night, these awards will be analyzed on several fronts and on several avenues, leading up to the big prediction. Come along with me!