Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.

The time has come for disappointments, surprises, and a cross section of both. The Oscar nominations will be released on Tuesday and while I attempt to predict nominations there will always be the fun surprise so get ready but the following is my best attempt. 

Best Picture

The Fabelmans

Tar

Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Top Gun: Maverick

Avatar: The Way of Water

Elvis 

Babylon

All Quiet on the Western Front

Women Talking 

Best Actor

Austin Butler for Elvis

Colin Farrell for Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser for The Whale

Bill Nighy for Living

Paul Mescal for Aftersun

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett for Tar

Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Danielle Deadwyler for Till

Michelle Williams for The Fabelmans

Ana DeArmas for Blonde

Best Supporting Actor

Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Brendan Gleeson for Banshees of Inisherin

Barry Keoghan for Banshees of Inisherin

Paul Dano for The Fabelmans

Judd Hirsch for The Fabelmans

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Stephanie Hsu  for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Jessie Buckley for Women Talking

Kerry Condon for Banshees of Inisherin

Best Director

Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans

Martin McDonagh for Banshees of Insherin

James Cameron for Avatar: The Way of Water

The Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Todd Field for Tar

Best Original Screenplay

Banshees of Inisherin 

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tar

Triangle of Sadness 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Women Talking 

Glass Onion 

All Quiet on the Western Front

She Said

Living 

Best Cinematography

Top Gun: Maverick

All Quiet on the Western Front 

Avatar: The Way of Water

Empire of Light 

The Batman

Best Production Design

Avatar: The Way of Water

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Babylon

The Fabelmans 

Best Editing

Top Gun Maverick

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Avatar: The Way of Water

Elvis

Best Original Score

The Banshees of Inisherin

Babylon

The Fabelmans

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Women Talking

Best Original Song

“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick

“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing

“Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Best Costume Design

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 

Elvis

The Woman King

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The Batman

The Whale

Elvis

Blonde

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Sound 

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Top Gun: Maverick

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: The Way of Water

Top Gun: Maverick

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Batman

Best International Film

Germany, All Quiet on the Western Front

South Korea, Decision to Leave

Argentina, Argentina, 1985

Poland, EO

Belgium, Close

Best Animated Feature Film

Pinocchio

Turning Red

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On 

Puss in Boots 

The Bad Guys

Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Fire of Love

Descendant

Navalny

There you have it. Several of my picks have not been doing well in the precursor awards but some awards just give me a gut feeling. We will see how it all shapes out.

Follow Sean on Instagram at @MathTeacherMovies