Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.

As frequent host Ricky Gervais once said, “The Golden Globes are like other award show, only without all the esteem” and that is the best way to describe the Golden Globes, they have never been given the respect they don’t deserve, but they are still considered the barometer of Oscar buzz. Should they be? 

It makes sense that people use this as a predictor of Oscars because it’s the second most famous award show. However, it is an entirely different, much smaller group of people not from the Academy. In the past, they have taken bribes and have a lack of diversity in their members and selections. They also have been known to pick fame over talent so that they could pal around with celebrities.

In the past the ceremony has been an irreverent dinner party where everyone gets drunk and no one takes it seriously except for Awards predictors, which is fine because it keeps things fun and loose, but it does add to the irreverence of the entire event. . 

After being dropped by NBC last year and not having a televised ceremony, they were given the mission to correct a lot of these issues and after one single year they are going to be back on television…on a Tuesday. 

Besides the morality questions that the Golden Globes frequently make us ask, it also hasn’t been a terribly reliable prediction of the Oscars of late. Since 2000 only 50% of the Directing and Picture winners have gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars.

However, the Best Actor and Actress winner is a bit more common with about 80% of the Globe winners moving on to win Best Actor and Actress. When they end up being incorrect it is usually because of front runners of a much higher celebrity getting the award where someone else makes a surprise by the time Oscar night rolls around. Adrien Brody for The Pianist is the most intense example. . 

The Globes do pick the more popular choices and when there is a frontrunner that has an unstoppable force and a reliable momentum that does occasionally begin by a Globe win putting their performance out in the ether. This is when the Globes should be used as an upcoming prediction and not when the two possibilities are close. 

This year especially seems like there are going to be some solid differences between the Oscars and the Globes. Danielle Deadwyler should have been nominated for Best Actress for Till and with an undeniable performance there is little doubt she will be passed up at the Oscars. 

Women Talking is another movie that lost out on nominations in both the Supporting Actress category and Sarah Polley for Best Director and it seems very unlikely that they will snubbed when the Oscar race heats up. However, their snubs for Golden Globe nominations will start to manufacture narratives that might not hold as much water as they should. 

The Screen Actors Guild Awards will definitely be a more accurate prediction for at least the acting categories and lately they have been more reliable, but the Globe winners will not be entirely off base. While the Globes are a slight barometer it shouldn’t be treated as the true bible of the Oscar nominations as there have been differences in the past and will likely be differences this year.

Follow Sean on Instagram at @MathTeacherMovies