Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
With the short list of several categories being released a few weeks ago, there is a better idea of what the nominations for the technical awards might be, but there are still plenty of options for each of these categories.
Steven Speilberg has frequently worked with cinematographer Janusz Kaminski and The Fabelmans is no exception but this could be a chance for him to win another Oscar for Best Cinematography and at the very least grab a nomination, especially for that perfect final shot.
Top Gun: Maverick has stunning camera work and Avatar: The Way of Water was quite innovative and is doing a great job in their campaign showing behind the scenes looks at the movie while showing there is authentic camera work.
While Babylon is quite divisive in terms of its storyline the technical achievements of the film are awe inspiring and it will probably pick up quite a few nominations including one for cinematography. One of the elements of All Quiet on the Western Front is how beautiful every shot is and therefore this is a high likelihood of it grabbing a nomination for cinematography.
Roger Deakins is the cinematographer for Empire of Light and while that movie is waning in popularity it is still beautiful and Deakins manages to often score at least a nomination in this category. Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, and Tar also have unique camera angles that could help provide it a nomination in this category.
Best Production Design
Black Panther Wakanda Forever continues to expand the world of Wakanda and there is no doubt it will be in the list for nominations of Best Production Design as will Babylon for the same reason as it tapped into the world of Old Hollywood.
The Banshees of Inishiren has such authentic setpieces that it almost seemed like they were lived in, but they were actually created for the film. Elvis is another type of movie that transports you into a different time and different world.
The most controversial nominee might be Avatar: The Way of Water because while it is filmed in a real world setting, it is incredibly effects heavy and this might hurt its chances. Glass Onion is another film that has some wild production design but it’s difficult to see where the effects end and the live action begins. There are several subtle possible nominations like The Fabelmans and Everything Everywhere All at Once as well.
Avatar: The Way of Water is the prominent leader when it comes to Best Sound but there are many other top contenders. Top Gun: Maverick could get a nomination for its dog fight scenes while Elvis and Babylon will probably get a nomination for the musical scenes.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and The Batman all have intense action sequences that accompany booming sound that worked very well, while a war movie like All Quiet on the Western Front is a frequent dweller and could grab a nomination.
Best Film Editing
Top Gun: Maverick and Everything Everywhere All at Once are the two frontrunners for Best Film Editing as they exemplify them the most. Elvis is quite a frantic movie that will easily be a part of the nomination slate. Meanwhile Babylon, Avatar: The Way of Water and The Fabelmans are also the types of movies that could end up getting nominated for Best Film Editing.
Best Original Score
This Fabelmans will be the last collaboration between Speilberg and John Williams which will definitely cause it to be nominated for Best Original Score. Babylon has an Original Score that easily stands out as does The Banshees of Inisherin. Avatar: The Way of Water and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever are two sequels that enhance upon their scores from the previous films.
There are several other movies on the Oscar shortlist that could be nominated. All Quiet on the Western Front has a distinct score, as does Everything Everywhere All at Once. Nope also has a score that stands out and could possibly end up on the list of the final five.
Best Visual Effects
This category is pointless to even examine as Avatar: The Way of Water is a certain winner and nothing else will even come close, but it in terms of other nominations Top Gun: Maverick and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever are almost certain to be nominated as they are sequels that have improved upon their effects from the originals in many ways
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness could end up being nominated but Marvel movies don’t have the best track record in this category. There is the chance that critically panned blockbusters like Jurassic World Dominion and Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore could get a nomination as quality of the movie doesn’t always matter for visual effects nominations.
All Quiet on the Western Front and The Batman have subtle effects which are sometimes honored. Nope is also a movie that could easily be on this list for its beautiful visuals in the final act.
Best Costume Design
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is a solid lock for this category as it won it for the first film and the costumes are either just as good or even elevated. Elvis and Babylon have solid costume work as they are of the time and accurate to that time and The Woman King is also intricate in the presentation.
Everything Everywhere All at Once has a fantasy element where the costumes are also given a great deal of attention. Mrs. Harris goes to Paris is literally about fashion and there is a great deal of attention paid on that fashion so this could end up being a lone nomination for that film.
The first Knives Out movie has splendid costumes including the iconic sweater from Chris Evans but it did not receive the costume nomination but this year the sequel, Glass Onion could as it is going to be doing much better come nomination time.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
This category has a very strong top few nominees and then after that it will be interesting to see what else comes off the short list. Elvis does an amazing job with the make up as they helped transform an actor to become a real person which is always a favorite of the Academy.
All one has to look at is what they did to Colin Farrell in The Batman to know that there is little doubt in that movie getting a Best Makeup nomination. Brendan Fraser goes through a stunning transformation in The Whale and while it will be difficult to ignore a nomination for him, it will also be difficult to ignore a nomination for Best Makeup.
After those nominations, it will be interesting to see what else gets nominated. All Quiet on the Western Front has shown some great things while Blonde did everything they could for the lead to look like Marilyn Monroe. Crimes of the Future was brilliant in the practical makeup but might not be popular enough to receive a nomination.
The nominations will be released in less than a month, but there seems to be a trend with many different films and it will be interesting to see where they all land by the end.