Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
The screenplay categories of the Oscars usually have quite a bit of front runners, but this year Adapted is almost certain while Original Screenplay is all over the board. The following are the very likely possibilities for both categories.
This year the category of Adapted Screenplay is fairly thin, leaving an opportunity for some unsuspecting and interesting films to get prominent buzz.
At this point the front runner is Women Talking, a film that relies primarily on the screenplay and is a great return for the beloved writer/director Sarah Polley. This is also because there is very little competition that is threatening.
The Whale is going to be a popular film for audiences but has recently been divisive amongst critics, however this will likely mean that it will grab a nomination.
She Said and Living have made very little noise, but these can be classic picks for nominations that are usually nominated to make up for a lack of Best Picture nomination or a lack of other popularity.
Bones and All is a very unconventional film and would usually be a rare nomination but this film is adored by critics and audiences alike and so while it is a long shot it is quite possible in the nomination.
White Noise was considered the frontrunner before it was released, but its poor reception with critics at festivals and therefore its likelihood for a nomination is rather low. However, it was considered an unadaptable work and therefore for that reason alone, it could possibly get the nomination for the attempt alone.
Glass Onion and Top Gun Maverick are also very likely to be nominated but they are only considered adapted screenplays because they are based on the characters from previous works, which can be a flimsy rule that sometimes is a hindrance to a nomination. Knives Out received a nomination for Screenplay in 2019 and Glass Onion seems to be a worthy follow up which means it’s a likely nomination. Top Gun Maverick is going to receive a ton of nominations this year and therefore there is a chance that it picks up a nomination for Screenplay but that isn’t the film’s greatest strength.
For the Original Screenplay category there are three frontrunners that all can have a legitimate path to an Oscar win and then several other worthy and likely nominations.
Everything Everywhere All at Once is the most likely to win as it is the most popular film and the dark horse for Best Picture. It is also wildly inventive and unconventional which means it will be a tough road for Best Picture and a screenplay win that will be a solid make up.
Martin Mcdonaugh was very close to a Best Screenplay win in 2017 for Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri and therefore it wasn’t for Everything Everywhere All at Once, McDonagh would be in line for an easy win with Banshees of Inisherin and with the universal likability of the film its still very possible to receive a win.
The Fabelmans is the Best Picture frontrunner and almost a definite win for Steven Speilberg in Best Director and therefore its a possible winner for Best Original Screenplay along with his writing partner Tony Kushner being due for a Screenplay win.
After those three there are several different prospective nominates including TAR where Todd Field’s long awaited return will definitely be awarded with a nomination. It is also a film that caters to the film snobs and that is a category where a film of that nature belongs.
Babylon has been met with a divisive reaction from the critics, but it’s still a Damien Chazelle film about old Hollywood and therefore even with poor reception it could still get a nomination.
With it flying under the radar, Triangle of Sadness is becoming less and less likely to receive a nomination for Best Picture, but it could still receive a Best Original Screenplay nomination as a make up.
Aftersun is becoming quite the critical darling and could be the independent type of film that ends up on the list. However A24 is going to be quite busy campaigning for Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Whale and therefore Aftersun might be an afterthought.
In the past few years, an international film often makes onto the screenplay nomination list and while that does not seem likely this year, Decision to Leave would be the most likely nomination.
The herd will soon have to be thinned into ten nominations and it will be very interesting to see what happens next but until then we speculate wildly!