Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
The field of Best Supporting Actress is easily the most confusing and wide open of any race at this point especially after the sure fire winner of Michelle Williams from The Fabelmans exited this category.
The film Women Talking will easily be the most fascinating in terms of nominations as this is a film that will star several heavy hitters who have been said to have wonderful performances including Jessie Buckley, Claire Foy, Rooney Mara, and Frances McDormand. It would be rare that this whole cast will be nominated, but there will probably be at least two.
While Michelle Yeoh is practically a lock for Best Actress there is a chance that Stephanie Hsu could grab a supporting nomination. While she is not entirely as famous or as much of an Oscar veteran she still has a notable performance in a notable film.
Kerry Condon is a legend of the stage and has been known to be a stand out in The Banshees of Inisherin. Jean Smart was already a legend before her new found Hacks success and this could help her garner some attention with a nomination in Babylon but this film is still such a mystery that it’s not sure who gets the showcase.
The Whale might be a showcase for Brendan Fraser, but Hong Chau, Sadie Sink, and Samantha Morton all have their moments in this film. In addition, Samantha Morton has some key scenes in She Said that could garner her a nomination.
Vanessa Kirby was able to grab a nomination for her spectacular performance in Pieces of a Woman and it seems like she might be able to ride that momentum to a nomination for Florian Zeller’s The Son, a director that knows how to grab nominations for his performers. Laura Dern could also grab a nomination in the same film for the same reasons.
The Woman King is going to be a large question mark come awards time, but Thuso Mbedu and Lashana Lynch are two very notable supporting performances and could end up with nominations.
Glass Onion is a movie that has the potential to be a populous pick for Best Picture and the stand out from the cast has been Janelle Monae and while this means there could be a chance of a nomination for her but a very slim chance.
There is also a chance that Triangle of Sadness could be a huge hit for audiences in the same way that it would be a hit for critics and the standout performer for this film is Dolly De Leon who has been beloved and is already campaigning hard for her nomination.
One of the most interesting nominations this year could be for Gabrielle Union who has some notable Oscar worthy scenes in The Inspection and while it’s a very small role, that could be quite impactful.
At this time, it is incredibly difficult to nail down five potential performances and when more of these films are received by the public there is a chance it narrows down, because even though the people don’t vote, it will still have some influence of the culture.