Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Much like Best Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor is a bit up in the air and doesn’t have a well defined five nor a clear front runner.
It really seems crazy that Everything Everywhere All at Once is receiving so much buzz but Ke Huy Quan gives a performance worthy of accommodation, while also having the narrative of a child start having an amazing come back for this film.
It seems absolutely insane to say that Paul Dano has not been nominated for an Oscar yet, given his film career and the fruits of his work. Because of this, he will probably be getting a nomination for The Fabelmans. Judd Hirsch also gives a notable performance but is only on screen for a short time but given his legendary status and impactful performance, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him on the list of five.
While Colin Farrell is the performance everyone is talking about for The Banshees of Inisherin, it seems like Brendan Gleeson will also be riding on the same momentum and therefore grabbing a well deserved first nomination. Brian Tyree Henry is also a beloved performer who has only slightly broken into film and he is given a strong role in Causeway but his chance at a nomination is unfortunately slim.
The women performers from Women Talking are definitely getting the deserved spotlight and buzz, but Ben Whishaw is also getting quite a lot of attention and is someone beloved by the industry so he could also catch a nomination from that particular momentum.
Brad Pitt is facing a bit of controversy at the moment and this will probably harm his chances of getting nominated for Babylon. It’s also not terribly clear if his role is a supporting or a lead, but he has the crazy goofy charisma which could definitely garner enough attention.
Jeremy Strong is getting most of his praise from Succession and it is getting quite a bit of attention whether it’s positive or negative with the articles about his method acting and his intensity. This could lead to a nomination for his performance in Armageddon Time, but some of the obstacles mentioned above could hold him back.
It will be interesting to see where this race goes and it seems almost pretty clear that there might be a crazy surprise that none of us are expecting, which just makes everything all the more fun!