Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Two of the most anticipated blockbusters are sequels to films that had very similar trajectories when it came to their relationships with the Oscars. Avatar and Black Panther were cultural phenomenons and tremendous awards performers and have sequels that have the potential to have the same result.
When Avatar was released it was a tremendous hit and still holds records at the box office. But it was also a major awards player nominated for eight Oscars including the Best Picture and Best Director. It was also nominated for Best Editing, Best Original Score, and the two Best Sound Awards. In addition, it won the award for Best Visual Effects, Best Art Direction, and Best Cinematography.
Black Panther was also nominated for Best Picture and the two Sound awards. It won Best Costume Design, Best Original Score and Best Production Design, while was also nominated for Best Original Song. It was famously not nominated for Best Visual Effects or Cinematography due to some of the criticism of how it looked in the third act especially.
Based simply on two very beautiful trailers, it seems apparent that these two movies will dominate in the awards once again. Based on the visuals of the trailer, it does seem like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever might gain nominations for Best Visual Effects and Best Cinematography along with Avatar: The Way of Water.
Both original movies grabbed nominations for Best Sound Mixing and Editing and now with that being one award known as Best Sound, it will be more difficult to grab these nominations. However, they both have the guarantee of the great deal of action which often comes with Sound nominations following after.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever looks like it will get a nomination for Costume Design once again while Avatar: The Way of Water doesn’t exactly provide an opportunity for Costumes to be worn and so it won’t grab this nomination.
Art Direction/Production Design will be the most interesting for these two films. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever once again looks like it will be a top contender for this prize. Avatar won this award when it was called Best Art Direction but it would be interesting to see if the movie can even qualify for this award now that it is called Production Design.
Both movies were nominated for Best Original Score and so it would be difficult to ignore the possibility of their sequels earning those nominations but it’s difficult to get that feeling from their perspective trailers. There is a chance for another Original Song nomination for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever with so many artists being involved in the first one and that passion could carry over.
One of the least likely potential nominations would be Angela Bassett for a Best Supporting Actress nomination in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. As hot as this take might be, it doesnt seem entirely out of bounds. Bassett is no stranger to the Oscars with her deserved nomination for her beloved performance in What’s Love Got to Do With It? and she is respected in the film community. She also shakes the world in the thirty seconds of the trailer that she provides.
Finally, there is Best Picture and while both of these movies will be getting a lot of technical nominations and they both look like they are well made, it doesn’t seem likely that they will get the Best Picture nominations. Both of their first were lightning in a bottle when it came to their Oscar momentum and their cultural impact and it is rare that blockbuster movies get the Best Picture nominations nevermind their sequels and there is always the possibility of Top Gun Maverick also grabbing a nomination for Best Picture and three blockbusters movies would be great for the Oscars but incredibly unlikely.
Regardless of who gets nominated for what, it is exciting to see popular films of great quality that will most likely get the recognition when it is due whether through awards or through box office results, or maybe both.