Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
The qualifications for the Emmys end on May 31st, so for the next few weeks the different categories for the Emmys will be explored. This week will be Drama and, much like all the sections of the Emmys, there will be a lot of contenders.
Best Drama Series
Succession won the big prize last year and had one hell of a third season. Therefore, it is most likely the front runner. Other shows that returned this year are Euphoria, Stranger Things, Bridgerton, and The Morning Show. Euphoria beat out any possibility for a sophomore slump with an even better and more popular season. Stranger Things has yet to be released and so the jury is out on how it will be received, but being released so late will help its way to a nomination. Bridgerton changed up the game with drew both praise and ire and the divisive might impede a nomination. Meanwhile, The Morning Show went entirely off the rails and blew up any chance of it landing a nomination for the series. A series that has received little Emmy praise but quite a bit of popular praise is Yellowstone and even though it has only gotten one technical Emmy nomination its popularity could lead it to a possible Series nomination.
In addition, Ozark, This is Us, and Better Call Saul are popular and previously nominated which have never gotten their due as they approach their ending seasons (even though Better Call Saul technically will have one more go chance with the second part of season six being released in a few months), these three series could eventually receive culmination awards. Killing Eve also ended their show this season but have received quite a bit of criticism for how it ended and probably lose their chance of a nomination.
There are several newcomers this year that have been getting quite a bit of Emmy Buzz. Squid Game was a huge phenomenon and dominated at the SAGs and therefore has a high chance of getting nominated here. Yellowjackets was another popular show that is bringing about the supernatural guessing game, which often drives in viewers and Emmy voters alike. Apple TV+ has several new shows out, the most prominent of which are Severance and Pachinko which both have solid chances of at least getting on the nomination list. Finally, Adam McKay worked on the show Winning Time which is getting positive attention and while the Oscars love McKay it will be interesting to see what Emmys think.
Best Actor in a Drama Series
The Best Actor race once again comes down to the two Succession boys with Brian Cox and Jeremy Strong. Strong has already won his Emmy which could lead to Cox winning this year. Ozark and Better Call Saul are done after this season and therefore Jason Bateman and Bob Odenkirk have the chance to get quite a bit of deserved attention, while baffling neither have won.
Squid Game, Severance, and Winning Time are all the hot new shows of the year and therefore their lead actors Lee Jung-jae, Adam Scott, and John C Reilly have a strong chance at nominations based on that popularity and momentum.
Sterling K Brown has been a frequent nominee and previous winner for This is Us and with its final season during this year there is no doubt that he will be given a nomination again. Meanwhile, Kevin Costner has never been nominated for Best Actor for Yellowstone but with its growing popularity he does hold a chance at grabbing a nomination.
Best Actress in a Drama Series
The last time Zendaya starred in Euphoria she ended up holding an Emmy and with her performance in the second season she is even better so she has a strong chance of a nomination and win.
Laura Linney has been nominated numerous times for Ozark and has bafflingly not won and with this being the final season and Linney being the stand out performer, it would make sense for her to grab the top spot.
Yellowjackets was a brilliant phenomenon with a spectacular cast of actors and the standout is Melanie Lynskey who is already beloved by the industry and will be recognized come Emmy season.
The Morning Show and Killing Eve are two shows that have lost quite a bit of favor in recent seasons and yet the performances from Jennifer Aniston, Jodie Comer, and Sandra Oh are consistent and they have the potential to garner nominations.
There aren’t many potential candidates for Best Actress in a Drama series this year and while that’s quite a shame there is still a list of great talent that will be deservedly nominated.
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Succession is famous for its supporting performances and Kieran Culkin, Matthew Macfadyen, and Nicholas Braun have all been previously nominated and yet none of them have won. Not only will these three be nominated but one of them, most likely Culkin, stands to win this year. Alan Ruck has yet to be nominated for his performance and he is more of a longshot, but it would be great to see him win.
Billy Crudup won a Supporting award previously for his role in The Morning Show taking the award from all of the players in Succession. He will definitely be nominated again, but it seems unlikely he can take down the win again with Morning Show’s sub par quality.
Giancarlo Esposito and Jonathan Banks have previously been nominated for their roles in Better Call Saul and will most likely grab nominations again. It’s borderline criminal that neither of them have won but hopefully they could in either the first or second part of the sixth season.
There are few long shots in this already quite packed category. Oh Yeong-soo has stood out for his performance in Squid Game and could ride on that film’s popularity. Severance has a great deal of popularity and while there are many performers that could be praised, John Turtrurro is the highest standout. The longest shot is Eric Dane getting a nomination for Euphoria which would be earned as his character went through a lot and Dane took him through all of it.
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Sarah Snook has been deserving of an Emmy for many seasons of Succession and it seems like she is just about to get her due for a win. Meanwhile J Smith-Cameron has been a tremendous background player in the series and deserves much more praise and will probably receive some through a nomination this season.
There is no doubt that Julia Garner will receive a nomination once again as she has won for her role in Ozark twice already. Due to her already being victorious, it is likely that she will share the wealth this year with someone else getting the win.
Squid Game will continue to be the catalyst of great performances being recognized with Jung Ho-yeon’s emotional and popular depiction of a tortured character.
It has been insanity that Rhea Seehorn has yet to be nominated for her role in Better Call Saul and the majority of fans think so, and because of this she will most likely grab a nomination honoring her performance for the entire series.
There should be more nominees for Yellowjackets but Christina Ricci has the best chance of being one of them. Juliana Marguiles was an interesting addition to the second season of The Morning Show and could grab the attention needed for a nomination.
It would be great if more players from Euphoria could be recognized for their performances, especially Sydney Sweeney who is garnering some minor buzz for her role. Pachinko is not getting much buzz from the Emmys but it would be truly great if Yuh-Jung Youn could receive a nomination.
Fiona Shaw has been nominated several times for her role in Killing Eve and it would be great if she could win or at least be nominated again. However, neither seem terribly likely for her this year with many other more popular shows stealing the spotlight. Another long shot is Kelly Reilly for her performance in Yellowstone which could have success this year at the Emmys, including a nomination for her performance particularly.
The Emmys are always pretty tricky to predict and this year there is so much television it will be difficult to pin down to organize them all, and yet it’s always fun to speculate and see who gets the best of honors.