Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Lately some of the best television content has come through limited series, as stories that used to be compacted into a film now frequently end up on a streamer with several episodes that help give establishment to the stories and the characters. This year is no exception.
The leading and most impactful series this year was Dopesick but White Lotus also had high popularity and The Dropout was also captured with great notice. Maid was of great quality even though it was not terribly popular, much like Station Eleven which was exquisite but might be too unconventional for some voters.
Under the Banner of Heaven has just recently been released which might be to its detriment, but at the same time it is the type of show that would be captured by the Emmy voters. The Staircase is another recent release but with all the performances and the true crime saturation this year could harm its chances.
Pam and Tommy was definitely beloved by many but could possibly be too off putting to some of the stuffier academy members and yet the performances could be interesting. Gaslit is a series where all star actors dress in crazy makeup and have interesting performances, yet the popularity of its host, Starz, might be a bit too low to garner the attention.
Two complete longshots are Midnight Mass and We Own This City. The former of which is a well crafted thriller that could garner a surprise nomination and the latter being a David Simon series which like The Wire is brilliant but will probably be seldom recognized.
With streamers lately being in contention for Oscars, the qualifications for Best Television Movie have begun to blur. The Fallout is the absolute best of these films and will probably be the winner. The Survivor has been a slight disappointment but will still have enough reputation to grab the win.
The other movies of contention are hardly popular at all including Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas, the Ray Donovan Movie, and Help. However Chip n’ Dale: Rescue Rangers has recently been released on Disney+ and is getting dynamite reviews and reactions and could climb to the top and grab the surprise win.
Best Actor in a Movie/Limited Series
Michael Keaton is the absolute front runner for his blistering performance in Dopesick as he also is quite popular after his beautiful acceptance speech for this role at the SAG Awards. However the other person who has been having a pretty popular year is Andrew Garfield and his performance in Under the Banner of Heaven is garnering plenty of attention.
Due to Limited Series and Movie being in the same category for the acting category usually actors from TV Movies usually get overlooked. However, Ben Foster is a definite standout from The Survivor and will without a doubt be on this nomination list.
Oscar Isaac has two different chances to be nominated in this category this year. Most likely he will get nominated for Scenes from a Marriage, a limited series with prominent head of the pack performances. However, he is getting quite a lot of praise for Moon Knight as well but it being an unconventional Marvel series does not help its case.
Paul Bettany is in a very limited series of only three episodes entitled A Very English Scandal which is currently underseen and yet has a spectacular performance from Bettany. Also its predecessor A Very British Scandal got several nominations.
The Staircase is getting a decent amount of attention but its stand out is the central performance of Colin Firth who has the good will and the popularity to grab a nomination. Pam and Tommy is getting some notice from at least its performances and Sebastian Stan gives a tremendous transformation to a complicated character in Tommy Lee.
Few people saw Samuel L Jackson’s performance in The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey but if he is campaigned further to voters it will be difficult to ignore him. In addition, it will be difficult to ignore Himesh Patel’s performance in Station Eleven as well but it’s another series that didn’t catch much attention.
Best Actress in a Movie/Limited Series
Last year there was an embarrassment of riches in this category with many possible winners and a large number of nominees. This is once again the case this year, with Amanda Seyfried from The Dropout as the most likely nominee and winner. However, Margaret Qualley is an easy second who can take the honor for her performance in Maid.
Jessica Chastain is already having a terrific year with her Oscar win and could ride the momentum to at least a nomination for Scenes from a Marriage. Viola Davis, Gillian Anderson, and Michelle Pfeiffer are all getting buzz for their roles in The First Lady and it would be interesting to see if the attention will begin to focus on one performer or if they will cancel each other out.
On the other side of A Very English Scandal is Claire Foy who is playing a role that is in a familiar setting to The Crown for which she has already won two Emmys for and yet she makes the performance her own.The largest standout in Pam and Tommy is Lily James’s transformation and therefore it would be difficult to imagine her not getting nominated.
Julia Garner is already an Emmy all star with her multi award winning performance in Ozark and while the show Inventing Anna was mediocre, her performance was a standout, strange accent and all. Anne Hathaway dived right into her role based on the way the public views her but it’s a powerful and popular performance. While Gaslit is flying under the radar on Starz it’s difficult to ever count out Julia Roberts, especially in a series where the performances are over the top.
Best Supporting Actor in a Movie/Limited Series
The Whilte Lotus was dominated with several great supporting performances and Murray Bartlett is the one that has stood out the most mixing comedy and drama and will definitely at least garner a nomination. It might be category fraud, but Peter Sarsgaard is a tremendous stand out in the series Dopesick that is getting the most attention and buzz, with Michael Stuhlbarg getting less buzz for that performance but still some.
Naveen Andrews was a huge and welcome surprise in The Dropout. He was nominated once for his performance in the iconic Lost and therefore is no stranger to awards but is spectacular in this series as well. Another great performance from The Dropout was William H Macy who has the star power to draw a nomination for a performance that is over the top but still powerful.
Seth Rogen is a humorous surprise in Pam and Tommy and he has made a character with a tremendous impact on the series. It would be surprising to see him as a nominee but it seems very possible.
OT Fagbenle is playing Obama in The First Lady and that is always a difficult task and yet it will also garner the amount of attention necessary for voters to appreciate the acceptance of the challenge. Margaret Qualley is the standout in Maid but Nick Robinson goes quite far from his typical roles and creates a truly menacing villain.
Best Supporting Actress in a Movie/Limited Series
Jennifer Coolidge was easily the best part of The White Lotus and has been the popular pick to win the Emmy and there is no doubt of her win. Another White Lotus star that will probably join Coolidge in the nomination list is Connie Britton who has been popular in television for quite some time and will earn a nomination for this series
Kaitlyn Dever plays the most sympathetic role in Dopesick and therefore is drawing a large amount of the awards attention deservedly. While Rosario Dawson is not getting as much buzz for her performance in Dopesick, she still could get a possible nomination.
Andie McDowell is another performance in Maid that is challenging and a tremendous standout. Another stand out performance in Maid is Anika Noni Rose who truly does support the film and its story with her performance.
Ellen Burstyn is a screen legend and has been getting quite a lot of buzz in The First Lady. Meanwhile Toni Collette is getting attention for The Staircase which has been a series surging in popularity lately even though her character is underdeveloped.
Impeachment is a limited series that was easily going for several nominations in performance but with all of the performances being heavily made up and most of them being way too over the top there probably won’t be any nominations for this year. The only nomination that would come close and be deserving is Edie Falco playing Hilary Clinton and yet she is most likely behind the rest of these performances.
That’s it for the Emmys look ahead. This summer, the nominations will be announced and then the award ceremony will take place in September. Until then there will be the occasional post about television peppered in but there will be a break for now.