Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
It’s 2032, the water levels have risen over the coasts and President Olivia Rodrigo is lighting the torches while leading the troops to prepare for The Great Boat War and the last 70 people that watch the Oscars will be joining me in a huddled mass below ground. Okay, so it probably won’t be that bad…maybe 80 people.
These were an eventful Oscars with history making moments that surrounded an unforgettable and unfortunate event. All I could think about recently is how these Oscars will be looked upon in the future, because sometimes when these movies age they are seen in a different light, and then seen in a much different light even further down the road.
CODA’s Best Picture win is a fascinating one no doubt. The Power of the Dog had twelve nominations and was the leading front runner this year and then CODA swept in like it was an underdog. However, CODA is hardly an underdog running a fierce campaign under the juggernaut of Apple and yet its still a relative unknown to most audiences.
The reaction to CODA winning Best Picture has been upsetting to cinephiles, who have seen CODA as too generic or feeling there were much better films nominated. They have begun to put CODA on the mantle of the worst Best Picture Winners, such as Green Book, The King’s Speech, Shakespeare in Love, Crash, and some others.
CODA will not be looked upon as unkindly as these films as time goes on, because for every common viewer that has seen CODA it’s universally liked, which is somewhat rare for any Best Picture Winner even if it’s rarely been seen.
It’s worth noting that some of those films listed as the worst Best Picture winners are not terrible movies but just won over much better nominees like The Social Network or Saving Private Ryan which were far more deserving and therefore at the worst CODA will be a movie people will like but wish the more artsy film won instead looking at it poorly due to that.
The common pattern of the Oscars lately has been two front runners at the helm, an artsy film vs a more populous film. CODA vs Power of the Dog, Nomadland vs Trial of the Chicago 7, La La Land vs Moonlight, Green Book vs Roma, and regardless of the quality of one or the other there has now been that split in opinion among fans of the Oscars and with immediate reaction that divide can go further.
So what will CODA look like as a Best Picture ten years from now? Well it’s liked by everyone, even its dissenters and so therefore it will be looked upon as just that, a beloved film that may have other films that some may like more.
While everyone is probably sick of hearing about the Will Smith incident, it is still worth wondering what will happen to his career in the future. At this point, Smith has resigned from the Academy, meaning he can’t go to Academy only events or vote for who can win or be nominated for the Oscars. However, at this time, he still could be nominated or win an Oscar. It’s important to remember that it was Smith that resigned and the Academy have not yet finished their investigation that will most likely end with a suspension from possible future ceremonies or banning him from being nominated for a determinant amount of time.
Even if the Academy is lenient and does not do all of those things, could Will Smith possibly ever be nominated or win an Oscar again? Would the Academy even want to vote for him? Next year Smith made a new film from AppleTV+ called Emancipation which under normal circumstances would be centered around plenty of Oscar buzz, but now will most likely be dead in the water.
But ten years down the road? Will there be a Will Smith redemption story? In such crazy news cycles maybe everyone will forget about this infamous moment or they just want someone who was so beloved before the incident to come back, but one thing is for sure, that won’t happen next year.
Jessica Chastain’s career will take some interesting paths as well. She never seemed to want to pine after the Oscar and she would frequently choose the roles that she wanted which could have been Oscar buzzworthy but never reached those honors and this year she was involved in what is considered a passion project and that’s officially how she won. People will respect this win, even if it may be an over the top performance, those will still be the most memorable.
Troy Kotsur was beloved throughout this entire season and turned in a truly beautiful performance. There is a hope that the wins this year can elevate the deaf community and more performers in that community but there’s always the worry of the movement being a flash in the pan and roles for deaf performers might go back to minimal. However, Kotsur feels like he is not going to give up on increasing representation.
Ariana DeBose will probably have the greatest career rise of any of the winners. She is a dazzling discovery who was a revelation in West Side Story and is a triple threat who can sing, dance, and act very well who can put herself into films on multiple fronts. She is the classic Hollywood game changer and will continue to rise to the top and most likely be seen back at the Oscars ceremony in some form.
Another question that remains is what will come of the classic and yearly Netflix Oscar pursuit. Netflix has wanted to win Best Picture for quite some time and has frequently come up short. They did not get the top prize with Roma, The Irishman, Marriage Story, Trial of the Chicago 7, Mank, and was the closest this year with The Power of the Dog, and it was beaten not because of the “It’s not in the theater” narrative, but instead beat by another streamer in AppleTV+. So does Netflix continue to try? Or do they make more popular and less quality movies? Netflix likes to balance both and will probably continue to release both in the future and with theaters dwindling, streaming will become much more dominant.
The presence of international representation has continued to grow within film. Roma almost won in 2018, Parasite won in 2019, Minari (while not technically an international film) was nominated and helped in Youn Yuh-jung win the Oscar for Supporting Actress, and finally this year with historically nominated Flee, The Worst Person in the World with several nominations, and Drive My Car being a part of multiple categories including Best Picture.
It was already quite known that no one wants to host the Oscars as so many denied the job this year and after the incident this year there will be no chance of anyone wanting to host and this will make things interesting when it comes to who will watch, the ratings may go up due to the drama but there still is a lack of interest in the movies nominated and movies in general, which has become quite the problem.
It’s difficult to see what will happen in the next ten years, in movies, television, politics, and personal life. Yet as long as movies will still be made there will still be arguments over awards and I will be there to have them. Now…ONWARD PRESIDENT RODRIGO!