Awards Watch With Math Teacher Movies – March 7th, 2022: Oscars Performance & Writing Predictions

Home » Awards Watch With Math Teacher Movies – March 7th, 2022: Oscars Performance & Writing Predictions

Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.

With the Screen Actors Guild Awards being presented last week, the Oscar races for each actor are either taking shape or they are becoming more uncertain. Similar are the two writing categories that either have the potential for many surprises or will become pretty straightforward.  

Best Actor

Sometimes the Screen Actors Guild awards are a predictor for the Oscars and other times the speech of the winner is an audition for a possible Oscar speech. Will Smith winning the SAG and giving an emotional and heartfelt speech means he is both the front runner and likely winner of Best Actor for King Richard. His win was going to be the case for most of the season while there are some flirtations of Benedict Cumberbatch and Andrew Garfield possibly upsetting, Smith seems like the definite winner. 

Best Actress

As much of a lock as Best Actor is this year, Best Actress is the exact opposite. Last year, four of the five nominees could have possibly won the Oscar. This year, all five nominees have a possible path to the win, which is mainly due to none of them or their films or their performances being standouts. 

Kristen Stewart was the front runner for sometime for Spencer and while she almost lost her nomination her popularity has begun to surge ever so slightly. Penelope Cruz was another surprise nomination for Parallel Mothers and yet it’s most likely the result of an Academy that is growing more and more diverse and therefore that could cause Cruz to win. 

One of the recent rules for any awards body is to never doubt Olivia Colman. She is always a fun time and everyone wants to see her on stage holding an award. However, the two actresses in the lead for awards consideration are Nicole Kidman and Jessica Chastain. Kidman won the Globe and Chastain won the SAG with the popularity of their films having equal standing. Kidman seems to still have the momentum at the moment but Chastain is beloved and hasn’t won  an Oscar which might be her way of finally getting the chance to be honored. 

Best Supporting Actor

For the longest time, Kodi Smit-McPhee was the frontrunner to win for his performance in The Power of the Dog and yet the reactions to this performance began to feel divisive. Therefore, a much more wholesome Troy Kotsur has become prominent for his performance in CODA which finally came to fruition with his win at the SAG awards. He has already been campaigning and drawing so much good grace. While some consider this a two man race, there is no doubt in my mind that Kotsur has this wrapped up. 

Best Supporting Actress 

Ariana DeBose. This is the most definite category of all four, there is no other frontrunner and no one else that is close. She is well deserved in a movie that is gaining steam and popularity playing a beloved role that has already won the Oscar, as well as an actress that has a bright future. 

Best Original Screenplay

Belfast will most likely not win Best Picture and therefore screenplay will be a deserved and honorable consolation prize. Branagh will also finally win his Oscar in which he has been quite due for during  his journey through Hollywood. There are a few other attractive nominees, but they will probably fall too far behind to get the win. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Adapted Screenplay is a bit more complicated than Original. The most likely front runner is still The Power of the Dog but the narrative has been not expecting Jane Campion to win two awards for Director and Screenplay. In addition, the other four nominations can all be justified but CODA seems to be the most likely to upset and then if it upsets that could push CODA to a possible best picture…but more on that next week. 

While many categories seemed to be decided there are still some where upsets are quite possible and all of the different pathways contain deserving wins that from different levels.

Follow Sean on Instagram at @MathTeacherMovies

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