Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
One of my favorite traditions every Oscar season is to take every Best Picture Nominee and say something nice about it, while also predicting a possible path to a win, however improbable. This is a way to look at the positives in movies and make the race more exciting.
This was the frontrunner at the very beginning of the Oscar race and this is mainly due to it balancing a wholesome nature while also bringing about a challenging environment. It has many film techniques that illuminate a personal and a cinematic nostalgia.
Director Kenneth Branagh is an exceptional campaigner and with this film having seven nominations and most likely winning Best Original Screenplay, there is a chance that this film could receive the final Oscar for Best Picture.
This is the kind of movie that deserves the win for Best Picture. This is a well developed movie of great quality that also appeals to the masses and truly emotional moves and sometimes that might just be enough.
This is my sleeper pick for Best Picture. Troy Kotsur winning Best Supporting Actor at the SAG Awards started a momentum that was further pushed when it won Best Ensemble at those same SAG Awards. This film has so much goodwill and there’s a wholesome nature whenever the cast is on a red carpet or they win an award. No one hates this movie, and therefore with a preferential ballot this means that many people are putting it close to the top and few people are putting this film low and it stands a chance from this angle as well.
Working against this theory is the film only being nominated for three Oscars and one of them isn’t the coveted Best Editing that usually leads to a Best Picture win, yet it has the chance of picking up the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar and with that above the line win along with Kostur winning Supporting Actor, Best Picture winning could work out.
Don’t Look Up
This film is a comedy in the most hysterical of ways that also manages to have a straight on delivery of a powerful and very important message that expresses true hardships we must face and how our politics and divisiveness can get in the way.
This is one of the more divisive films on this list and that could prove to grab quite a bit of attention and therefore could garner enough middle votes on the preferential ballot which could lead to a win.
Drive My Car
This film is a work of art with direction and writing that are truly awe inspiring with a powerful human story that makes the most beautiful and the most haunting imaginable.
Most would call the nomination a win for this movie and that may be so, but this film has several above the line nominations including Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best International Feature and it’s practically a surprise nomination which gives it the underdog appeal.
The Best Picture Nominations means that this movie is a shoe-in for Best International Feature and therefore one might say it wont receive Best Picture. However, if another movie wins Best International Feature, like The Worst Person in the World of Flee, this could mean something like Drive My Car could take the top spot
This movie was classic wide scope cinema that brought back the importance of seeing a film in the theater with beautiful technicals and a sweeping story that is engaging and powerful. It has wide appeal along with high quality.
This film may have lost its chance at winning Best Picture with Denis Villeneuve’s snub for Best Director but this could actually give a chance for the Academy to award Best Picture to the film in honor of his snub as well as the fact that Dune might be winning due to so many technicals has a chance of winning Best Picture for providing entertainment from that angle.
King Richard is a beautiful bit of nostalgic sports movie that is akin to the nineties and yet at the same time it has a lot of heart and depth focusing closely on family.
Will Smith is most likely taking the Oscar home for Best Actor which is the best chance at this film riding to a Best Picture. It also has a higher and possibly highest chance of winning Best Editing which catapults a film’s chances to win Best Picture.
This movie captures the spirit and recklessness of youth with a beautiful direction from Paul Thomas Aanderson and inspiring performances that look at the foolishness of another time period of seventies LA.
This film may only have three nominations but they are all above the line one being Best Director and Best Screenplay and any movie in that situation should never be counted out.
This film was a wild ride through various genres and insanely different settings, all of which took you deep into the mind of a tortured and flawed central character
While this film doesn’t have many above the line nominations, this still has beautiful technicals and has the good graces of direction from Guillermo del Toro who’s last film got him an Oscar, which could undoubtedly give it a push
The Power of the Dog
This film is a beautiful art piece that dives into the souls of characters that are restless from many angles as they collide together in conflict that reaches a crescendo.
This film has been the frontrunner for the majority of the season and seems like it is the most probable winner. With several awards still to come this film still has the most nominations, many of which are above and still several more below the line with several expected wins. Jane Campion is also the most likely to win Best Director which means a Best Picture is likely to follow.
West Side Story
Before this movie came out everyone was talking about the nerve of Steven Spielberg covering not only a classic film but a movie that has already won Best Picture. However, this classic was surprisingly improved upon while respecting the source material.
This movie has been gaining momentum and also has multiple Oscar nominations including the Best Director nomination for Spileberg and at least one definite win for Ariana DeBose in Best Supporting Actress, this could be a Best Picture win the sneaks right in.
Obviously, some Best Picture nominees stand more of a chance to win than others and furthermore others that hold a much higher quality but it’s great to see the good in art and to have hope that any receive acknowledgment.