Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions:
This weekend, Paramount’s Scream will look to end the four-week reign of Sony’s Spider-Man: No Way Home at the top of the box office. Scream represents the fifth installment of the Scream horror franchise and the first Scream film since 2011’s Scream 4. Scream (2022) was directed by Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett and features an ensemble cast that includes series regulars Courteney Cox, David Arquette and Neve Campbell. Scream is being released exclusively in theatres this weekend (in 3,664 locations) and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM. On the average, critical reviews for Scream have been good, but not great. In general, higher-profile horror films have been performing well since the re-opening of domestic theatres and Scream will look to continue that trend this weekend.
The big question mark surrounding Scream is whether or not the film will represent a recovery for the Scream franchise from the box office performance of Scream 4, which debuted with a disappointing $18.69 million. While moviegoers weren’t ready for a re-launch of the Scream franchise back in 2011, there appears to be much more excitement for Scream in 2022 (with another eleven years of nostalgia added in). Scream should also be helped out this weekend by the marketplace currently being starved for both a high-profile alternative to Spider-Man: No Way Home and a high-profile horror film in general (especially since horror films tend to perform well in January). BoxOfficeReport is predicting a three-day weekend of $35.5 million for Scream (which would represent the largest unadjusted opening weekend ever for the franchise) and a four-day Martin Luther King weekend start of $40.0 million.
While Sony’s Spider-Man: No Way Home will have to settle for second place this weekend, the film looks to be in store for a very nice hold over the Martin Luther King holiday weekend. Last weekend, Spider-Man: No Way Home held up significantly better than expected by declining 42 percent to take in $32.62 million. With the holiday frame, continued strong word of mouth and the film holding onto most of its locations this weekend (as well as IMAX screens), Spider-Man: No Way Home should hold up even better this weekend than it did last weekend. Look for Spider-Man: No Way Home to decline 36 percent over the three-day frame to take in $21.0 million and for the film to gross $26.5 million over the four-day frame (which would represent a decline of just 19 percent from last weekend). That would take Spider-Man: No Way Home past the $700 million domestic mark and past the $700.43 million final domestic gross of 2018’s Black Panther to move the film into fourth place on the all-time unadjusted domestic list.
Last weekend, Universal’s Sing 2 declined 42.5 percent to take second with $11.60 million. That represented a stronger third weekend hold than that of 2016’s Sing and Sing 2 could also hold up better than its predecessor did in its fourth weekend, especially since Sing 2 won’t be dealing with any new competition for family audiences this weekend; whereas Monster Trucks opened during the fourth weekend of Sing (which saw Sing decrease just 8 percent over the same Martin Luther King holiday frame). For the four-day frame, Sing 2 could increase a healthy 2 percent over last weekend’s three-day performance to take third place with $11.8 million.
Meanwhile, Universal’s The 355 and Disney and 20th Century’s The King’s Man appear set to respectively place in fourth and fifth this weekend. While The 355 won’t be losing any locations this weekend, the film will be losing a significant amount of its average showtimes per-location on the heels of last weekend’s modest $4.62 million start. On the other hand, The King’s Man will be playing in 635 fewer locations than it did this past week, but will also see a much stronger average showtimes per-location hold. The King’s Man should hold up better than The 355 this weekend, but The 355 will likely still finish slightly ahead for the four-day frame. Look for The 355 to decline 39 percent for a four-day take of $2.8 million and for The King’s Man to decrease 19 percent for a four-day gross of $2.6 million.
Receiving a semi-wide release in an estimated 1,300 locations this weekend is Belle, which is being released domestically by GKIDS. The Japanese-language animated film from director Mamoru Hosoda has received very strong critical reviews. On Wednesday, Belle had preview shows on select IMAX screens and the film will have traditional preview shows on Thursday beginning at 7PM. Belle represents the first traditional wide release for GKIDS, though back in January of 2020, the distributor saw Weathering with You gross $5.28 million over its first six-day of release (that film played in 1,020 locations during its first two days, before playing in 486 locations over the four-day holiday frame). There doesn’t seem to be as much pre-release anticipation for Belle as there was for Weathering with You, but Belle will also be playing in significantly more locations. Weathering with You grossed $2.23 million over the four-day weekend itself and it seems reasonable that Belle could perform similarly over its four-day weekend (especially with the inclusion of Thursday previews). A four-day start of $2.2 million (not including Wednesday previews) would place Belle in sixth place this weekend.