Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Before the Oscars nominations are announced next week, the various guilds make their picks and this helps get that one final picture of what to expect when we find out the Academy Award nominations. The three heavy hitters are the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Writers Guild, but there are technical guilds that help determine under the line nominations as well.
Producers Guild
Outstanding Picture
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick…BOOM!
West Side Story
Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Encanto
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Sing 2
Award for Outstanding Producer of Documentary Motion Pictures
Ascension
The First Wave *Eligibility Determination Pending*
Flee *Eligibility Determination Pending*
In The Same Breath
The Rescue *Eligibility Determination Pending*
Simple As Water
Summer Of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Writing With Fire
The Producers Guild or PGA is frequent in predicting Best Picture, Animated Feature and Documentary. The ten nominations for the PGA all seem like the Best Picture nominations this year, with a few that are shaky enough to be dethroned by Nightmare Alley and the Lost Daughter.
In animation Sing 2 is being honored by several guilds instead of Flee, but this could be due to eligibility issues. Finally the documentaries have several eligibility pending causing this to shake up the possible nominees or just make them difficult to predict.
Directors Guild
Outstanding Achievement in Theatrical Feature Film
Paul Thomas Anderson (“Licorice Pizza”)
Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”)
Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”)
Steven Spielberg (“West Side Story”)
Denis Villeneuve (“Dune”)
With the exception of the director of a forgien film coming in for an upset, there are almost definitely going to be the five nominees for Best Director with Guillermo del Toro possibly using some of his late momentum.
Writers Guild
Original Screenplay
“Being the Ricardos”
“Don’t Look Up”
“The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun”
“King Richard”
“Licorice Pizza”
Adapted Screenplay
“CODA”
“Dune”
“Nightmare Alley”
“Tick, Tick … Boom!
“West Side Story”
Ironically, the movies that are the front runners in both of these categories are not eligible. Belfast will definitely be in Original Screenplay most likely replacing The French Dispatch. Meanwhile, The Power of the Dog definitely will replace something in Adapted Screenplay and could replace Nightmare Alley or Tik Tik… Boom.
Art Directors Guild
PERIOD FEATURE FILM
The French Dispatch
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
FANTASY FEATURE FILM
Cruella
Dune
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
The Green Knight
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
CONTEMPORARY FEATURE FILM
Candyman
Don’t Look Up
In the Heights
The Lost Daughter
No Time to Die
The Art Directors Guild divides their awards into three categories.The contemporary category usually doesn’t see many Oscar nominations, but No Time to Die does have an outside chance. The Fantasy category is much more likely to be seen with nominations especially this year with Dune and The Green Knight having the best chance. Finally the Period film is the most frequent at the Oscars and that is the case this year with Nightmare Alley, The French Dispatch, The Tragedy of MacBeth, and West Side Story all very probable contenders.
ASC Awards nominations (American Society of Cinematographers)
Feature Film
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
The Tragedy of MacBeth and Nightmare Alley are the only nominees that have a small chance of not being on here but it does seem like all of these nominations are a lock.
Costume Designers Guild Awards nominations
Excellence in Sci-Fi / Fantasy Film
“Dune”
“The Green Knight”
“The Matrix Resurrections”
“Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”
“Spider-Man: No Way Home”
“The Suicide Squad”
Excellence in Contemporary Film
“Coming 2 America”
“Don’t Look Up”
“In The Heights”
“No Time to Die”
“Zola”
Excellence in Period Film
“Cruella “
“Cyrano”
“House of Gucci”
“Nightmare Alley”
“West Side Story”
Just like with Art Direction, Costume Design nominations usually come from fantasy or period categories and unfortunately not too many from the modern category. However, this Guild made for interesting possibilities for nominations and yet nothing steady yet, with House of Gucci seeming like a front runner.
ACE Eddie Awards nominations (American Cinema Editors)
BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC)
Belfast
Dune
King Richard
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY)
Cruella
Don’t Look Up
The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun
Licorice Pizza
tick, tick…BOOM!
The most convincing Oscar stat is how much Best Film Editing is linked to Best Picture and with the frontrunners to Best Picture, Belfast and Power of the Dog, nominated by these Guilds, this reinforces them being the leads but there are many others that could possibly take the crown.
Next week’s column is going to be the official Oscar nomination predictions before the official announcement on Tuesday the 8th.