Awards Watch With Math Teacher Movies – January 31st, 2022: From The Guilds To The Oscars

Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.

Before the Oscars nominations are announced next week, the various guilds make their picks and this helps get that one final picture of what to expect when we find out the Academy Award nominations. The three heavy hitters are the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Writers Guild, but there are technical guilds that help determine under the line nominations as well. 

Producers Guild

Outstanding Picture

Being the Ricardos

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

The Power of the Dog

tick, tick…BOOM!

West Side Story

Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures

Encanto

Luca

The Mitchells vs. The Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon

Sing 2

Award for Outstanding Producer of Documentary Motion Pictures 

Ascension

The First Wave *Eligibility Determination Pending*

Flee *Eligibility Determination Pending*

In The Same Breath

The Rescue *Eligibility Determination Pending*

Simple As Water

Summer Of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Writing With Fire

The Producers Guild or PGA is frequent in predicting Best Picture, Animated Feature and Documentary. The ten nominations for the PGA all seem like the Best Picture nominations this year, with a few that are shaky enough to be dethroned by Nightmare Alley and the Lost Daughter. 

In animation Sing 2 is being honored by several guilds instead of Flee, but this could be due to eligibility issues. Finally the documentaries have several eligibility pending causing this to shake up the possible nominees or just make them difficult to predict. 

Directors Guild

Outstanding Achievement in Theatrical Feature Film

Paul Thomas Anderson (“Licorice Pizza”)

Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”)

Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”)

Steven Spielberg (“West Side Story”)

Denis Villeneuve (“Dune”)

With the exception of the director of a forgien film coming in for an upset, there are almost definitely going to be the five nominees for Best Director with Guillermo del Toro possibly using some of his late momentum. 

Writers Guild

Original Screenplay

“Being the Ricardos” 

“Don’t Look Up” 

“The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun” 

“King Richard” 

“Licorice Pizza” 

Adapted Screenplay

“CODA” 

“Dune”

“Nightmare Alley”

“Tick, Tick … Boom!

“West Side Story”

Ironically, the movies that are the front runners in both of these categories are not eligible. Belfast will definitely be in Original Screenplay most likely replacing The French Dispatch. Meanwhile, The Power of the Dog definitely will replace something in Adapted Screenplay and could replace Nightmare Alley or Tik Tik… Boom. 

Art Directors Guild

PERIOD FEATURE FILM

The French Dispatch 

Licorice Pizza 

Nightmare Alley 

The Tragedy of Macbeth 

West Side Story 

FANTASY FEATURE FILM

Cruella 

Dune 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife 

The Green Knight 

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings 

CONTEMPORARY FEATURE FILM 

Candyman 

Don’t Look Up 

In the Heights

The Lost Daughter 

No Time to Die 

The Art Directors Guild divides their awards into three categories.The contemporary category usually doesn’t see many Oscar nominations, but No Time to Die does have an outside chance. The Fantasy category is much more likely to be seen with nominations especially this year with Dune and The Green Knight having the best chance. Finally the Period film is the most frequent at the Oscars and that is the case this year with Nightmare Alley, The French Dispatch, The Tragedy of MacBeth, and West Side Story all very probable contenders. 

ASC Awards nominations (American Society of Cinematographers)

Feature Film

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

Belfast

The Tragedy of MacBeth and Nightmare Alley are the only nominees that have a small chance of not being on here but it does seem like all of these nominations are a lock. 

Costume Designers Guild Awards nominations

Excellence in Sci-Fi / Fantasy Film

“Dune”

“The Green Knight” 

“The Matrix Resurrections” 

“Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” 

“Spider-Man: No Way Home” 

“The Suicide Squad” 

Excellence in Contemporary Film

“Coming 2 America” 

“Don’t Look Up” 

“In The Heights” 

“No Time to Die” 

“Zola” 

Excellence in Period Film

“Cruella “

“Cyrano” 

“House of Gucci” 

“Nightmare Alley” 

“West Side Story” 

Just like with Art Direction, Costume Design nominations usually come from fantasy or period categories and unfortunately not too many from the modern category. However, this Guild made for interesting possibilities for nominations and yet nothing steady yet, with House of Gucci seeming like a front runner. 

ACE Eddie Awards nominations (American Cinema Editors)

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC)

Belfast

Dune

King Richard

No Time to Die

The Power of the Dog

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY)

Cruella

Don’t Look Up

The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun

Licorice Pizza

tick, tick…BOOM!

The most convincing Oscar stat is how much Best Film Editing is linked to Best Picture and with the frontrunners to Best Picture, Belfast and Power of the Dog, nominated by these Guilds, this reinforces them being the leads but there are many others that could possibly take the crown. 

Next week’s column is going to be the official Oscar nomination predictions before the official announcement on Tuesday the 8th.

Follow Sean on Instagram at @MathTeacherMovies

What Do You Think?

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