Weekend Box Office Predictions: December 31, 2021 – January 2, 2022

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Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.

Weekend Box Office Predictions:

Sony’s Spider-Man: No Way Home will look to continue to comfortably lead the domestic box office over New Year’s weekend. Last weekend Spider-Man: No Way Home declined a very sharp, but understandable, 67.5 percent to take in $84.53 million (which still represented the ninth largest second weekend gross of all-time). While word of mouth is especially strong for Spider-Man: No Way Home, the film’s massive opening weekend in combination with the Christmas and New Year’s holidays falling over the weekend and current overall market conditions as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are leading to increased front-loading for the film. In the bigger picture, grosses remain massive for Spider-Man: No Way Home (especially by current theatrical standards), as the film passed the $500 million domestic mark on Tuesday and has grossed an estimated $536.6 million through Wednesday. Spider-Man: No Way Home will receive a bit of a boost this weekend from getting back the portion of IMAX screens it lost to The Matrix Resurrections last weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Spider-Man: No Way Home will take in $56.5 million this weekend, which would represent the sixth largest third weekend gross of all-time and a 33 percent decline from last weekend. This weekend will also see Spider-Man: No Way Home zoom past the $600 million domestic mark (making it only the eleventh film ever to reach the milestone).

After debuting with $39.55 million over its first five days (including earlier previews back over Thanksgiving weekend), Universal’s Sing 2 is set to remain in second place this weekend. While Sing 2 is performing on the lower end of expectations, the film is also performing very well for a family film under current market conditions and is clearly the top alternative choice to Spider-Man: No Way Home over the holidays by a wide margin. Family films in particular typically hold up especially well over New Year’s weekend when the Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve holidays fall over the weekends (2016’s Sing increased 22 percent to gross $42.90 million in its second frame over such a weekend), but we likely won’t see that trend play out this weekend as a result of the current overall size of the family theatrical market. With that said, Sing 2 has been seeing strong holiday midweek business and is still highly likely to have this weekend’s best percentage hold among the likely top five films for the frame. Look for Sing 2 to decrease a slim 11 percent from last weekend to remain in second with $19.8 million. Sing 2 will also soon overtake Encanto to become the highest grossing animated film since the re-opening of domestic theatres.

Meanwhile, it looks like it could be a close three-way race for third place between three second weekend releases: Disney and 20th Century’s The King’s Man, Lionsgate and Kingdom Story’s American Underdog and surprisingly, Warner’s The Matrix Resurrections. Last weekend saw similar respective weekend debuts of $5.89 million for American Underdog and $5.92 million for The King’s Man (albeit with different release dates for the two films), while updated global estimates place last weekend’s five-day domestic start for The Matrix Resurrections at $21.2 million, which would place the film’s three-day weekend gross closer to the neighborhood of $10.7 million. Daily holds for The Matrix Resurrections have been especially troubling and the film will also take additional hits this weekend from losing the portion of IMAX screens it played on last weekend and by continuing to also be available via streaming on HBO Max. New Year’s Eve business for all three films (especially the football themed American Underdog) could also be even slower than usual as a result of this year’s College Football Playoff semifinal games taking place on Friday. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The King’s Man will decline 27 percent from last weekend to take in $4.3 million, that American Underdog will decrease a similar 29 percent to gross $4.2 million and that The Matrix Resurrections will fall 63 percent (especially sharp for a midweek opener) to gross $4.0 million.

As for some of this weekend’s other holdovers, Disney and 20th Century’s critical favorite West Side Story has been picking up momentum as of late and could go on to see this weekend’s best percentage hold among wide releases by increasing 16 percent to take sixth with $3.3 million. Fellow critical favorite United Artists Releasing and MGM’s Licorice Pizza should also hold up well this weekend (New Year’s weekend is typically a good frame for awards season contenders) and could decline a very slim 8 percent to follow in seventh with $1.75 million. Disney’s Encanto, which is now also available via streaming on HBO Max, could decrease just 20 percent to claim eighth place with $1.45 million.

Read full predictions on BoxOfficeReport.com

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