Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions:
Following its first place debut last weekend, Disney’s Encanto will look to lead the weekend box office for a second consecutive frame this weekend. Over Thanksgiving weekend the computer animated film from Walt Disney Animation Studios registered respective three-day weekend and five-day holiday starts of $27.21 million and $40.57 million. Encanto has gone over very well with critics and also looks to be going over very well with audiences, as the film received a strong A rating on CinemaScore. In more recent years, second weekend declines for computer animated Thanksgiving weekend releases from Disney have included 45.8 percent for 2017’s Coco and 54.5 percent for 2018’s Ralph Wrecks the Internet. Encanto will likely see its second weekend percentage decline fall somewhere in between the declines of those two films. A 50 percent decline would give Encanto a second weekend take of $13.5 million.
Sony’s Ghostbusters: Afterlife is coming off of a healthy second weekend hold which saw the film decline 45 percent to take in $24.20 million. The film has no doubt benefited from strong word of mouth and should continue to do so this weekend. However, this weekend will see Ghostbusters: Afterlife lose its IMAX screens and the film has already experienced significant slowing during the midweek this week. Also of note is that in general, higher profile films that are released the weekend before Thanksgiving weekend tend to have sharp third weekend declines the weekend after Thanksgiving weekend. Look for Ghostbusters: Afterlife to decrease 53 percent this weekend to place in second with $11.3 million.
United Artists Releasing and MGM’s House of Gucci opened in third place this past weekend with respective three-day weekend and five-day holiday starts of $14.42 million and $22.01 million. The Lady Gaga led film has been displaying very solid early holding power thus far and the film even claimed first place at the daily box office on Tuesday. While House of Gucci has received mixed critical reviews, the film looks to be going over better with audiences given its early daily holds and solid B+ rating on CinemaScore. House of Gucci should also benefit this weekend from the film holding onto a very high percentage of its showtimes from last weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that House of Gucci will decline just 42.5 percent this weekend to remain in third with $8.3 million.
This weekend’s widest new release is Fathom Events and Angel Studios’ Christmas with The Chosen: The Messengers. The faith-based event screening includes a new episode of The Chosen television series and a number of musical Christmas performances. Typically event screenings from Fathom Events only screen for one or two days, but Christmas with The Chosen: The Messengers is receiving a more traditional release this weekend in an estimated 1,700 locations. Christmas with The Chosen: The Messengers began playing on Wednesday, and while an official figure for the day has yet to have been released, unofficial estimates place the film comfortably in first place for the day. In a new press release from Fathom Events earlier today, it was also announced that Christmas with The Chosen: The Messengers has already sold $8 million worth of tickets. While exactly how much of that figure is for the first five days wasn’t indicated in the press release, the vast majority of that total is likely to be part of the film’s first five days. With that in mind, BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Christmas with The Chosen: The Messengers will place in fourth over the three-day weekend with $5.4 million and total $10.0 million during its five days of release (there is likely to be heavy front-loading towards Wednesday and Thursday for the event).
As for some of this weekend’s other holdovers, after stabilizing last weekend Disney’s Eternals could decline a respectable 44.5 percent this weekend to claim fifth with $4.4 million, Paramount’s Clifford the Big Red Dog could decrease 48 percent to place in sixth with $2.6 million and Sony’s Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City could slow 53 percent to land in seventh with $2.5 million. And with the aid of returning to select IMAX screens this weekend, Warner Bros. and Legendary’s Dune could perform very similarly to last weekend to take eighth place with $2.0 million.