Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions:
After registering the second largest opening weekend of all-time last weekend with $260.14 million, Sony’s Spider-Man: No Way Home will look to continue to comfortably lead the box office over Christmas weekend. With strong daily grosses on Monday and Tuesday, Spider-Man: No Way Home has already grossed $328.68 million through the end of Tuesday. In addition to terrific critical reviews, Spider-Man: No Way Home looks to be going over extremely well with audiences, as the film received a rare A+ rating on CinemaScore. At the same time, in the short term Spider-Man: No Way Home will still have to deal with initial built-in front-loading and losing a sizable percentage of its showtimes from last weekend (including some of its IMAX showtimes to The Matrix Resurrections) as a result of six new major releases entering the marketplace over Christmas weekend. The theatrical marketplace as a whole will also have to deal with Christmas Eve falling on a Friday this year, as well as Christmas weekend business for less frequent moviegoers potentially not being as strong as usual due in part to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. With that said, Spider-Man: No Way Home is likely to experience a sharp decline this weekend, but will have an excellent chance of stabilizing significantly beyond this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Spider-Man: No Way Home will decrease 61.6 percent to gross $100.0 million this weekend. That would represent the seventh largest second weekend gross of all-time and bring the ten-day start for Spider-Man: No Way Home to a spectacular $482.0 million.
Universal’s Sing 2 looks to be this weekend’s strongest new release. The Garth Jennings directed computer animated film from Illumination is the follow-up to 2016’s Sing, which had respective three-day and five-day Christmas weekend debuts of $35.26 million and $55.87 million, before becoming a word-of-mouth hit and ultimately grossing $270.40 million domestically. Sing 2 is opening in 3,892 locations this weekend and looks to be receiving the largest showtimes per-location average of this weekend’s new wide releases. On the average, critical reviews for the film have been good / mixed, but not great. In general, family films have been unable to excel since re-opening, but Disney’s recent Encanto has been a positive sign in the right direction after it had respective three-day and five-day debuts of $27.21 million and $40.57 million over Thanksgiving weekend last month. Sing 2 looks to be more anticipated than Encanto was and shouldn’t have a problem becoming the highest grossing family film since re-opening. As for this weekend, Sing 2 could open similarly to its predecessor, perhaps with more initial front-loading towards Wednesday and Thursday. Look for Sing 2 to register respective three-day weekend and five-day openings of $33.5 million and $54.5 million this weekend (that would bring the film’s total gross to $56.1 million with the addition of sneak previews back on Thanksgiving weekend).
The weekend’s other new high-profile release is Warner’s The Matrix Resurrections. The Lana Wachowski directed sci-fi action sequel starring Keanu Reeves and Carrie-Anne Moss represents the fourth installment of The Matrix franchise and the first Matrix film since 2003’s The Matrix Revolutions. The Matrix Resurrections is opening day-and-date this weekend, theatrically in 3,552 locations and via streaming on HBO Max. Opening day-and-date will no doubt limit box office potential for The Matrix Resurrections, as will the film not receiving the amount of showtimes per-location a film of this magnitude would typically receive, due in part to the competition from Spider-Man: No Way Home (which has no doubt limited the overall anticipation for The Matrix Resurrections). Furthermore, The Matrix Resurrections looks like it will have a fairly significant showtimes disadvantage in comparison to Sing 2 this weekend. As mentioned, The Matrix Resurrections will be splitting IMAX screens with Spider-Man: No Way Home this weekend. As with Sing 2, critical reviews for The Matrix Resurrections on the average have been good / mixed, but not great. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Matrix Resurrections will have respective three-day weekend and five-day debuts of $22.0 million and $37.0 million.
Meanwhile, it could prove to be a close race for fourth place between two of this weekend’s other openers; Lionsgate’s American Underdog and Disney’s release of 20th Century’s The King’s Man (especially after modest preview numbers for The King’s Man on Tuesday). American Underdog is a sports biopic of quarterback Kurt Warner, which was directed by Andrew Erwin and Jon Erwin and stars Zachary Levi (as Kurt Warner), Anna Paquin and Dennis Quaid. The film is hoping to appeal to both sports fans and faith based audiences. The King’s Man is the long-delayed third installment of the Kingsman franchise, was directed by Matthew Vaughn and stars Ralph Fiennes, Gemma Arterton and Rhys Ifans. Anticipation for The King’s Man (which is a prequel) isn’t anywhere near the levels of its two predecessors (due in part to the direct competition from both Spider-Man: No Way Home and The Matrix Resurrections). The King’s Man opens today (Wednesday), while American Underdog opens on Christmas Day (Saturday). If both films were opening on Saturday, The King’s Man would have the edge over the weekend, but with grosses for The King’s Man being spread out over five days, American Underdog could pull off the upset between the two films over the weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that American Underdog will gross $8.2 million on Saturday and Sunday and that The King’s Man will gross $8.0 million over the three-day weekend, for a five-day start of just $13.0 million.
As for some of this weekend’s other noteworthy films, Disney’s Encanto could decline 44 percent to gross $3.6 million. The computer animated film has been holding up quite well, but will obviously face new direct competition from Sing 2 this weekend and will also be made available via streaming on Disney+ on Friday. With a major location count advantage, Sony’s A Journal for Jordan (in an estimated 2,500 locations) could slightly outpace United Artists Releasing and MGM’s Licorice Pizza (in an estimated 750 locations). BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective two-day weekend grosses of $3.4 million for the Denzel Washington directed A Journal for Jordan and $3.2 million for the Paul Thomas Anderson directed Licorice Pizza (which should have the far better holding power of the two films beyond this weekend).