Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Weekend Box Office Predictions:
After debuting a bit under its lofty expectations last weekend with $71.30 million, Disney’s Eternals will look to comfortably remain in first place this weekend. As has been much discussed, critical reviews for Eternals have been mixed and while the film looks to be going over somewhat better with audiences than it has with critics, at the same time Eternals doesn’t look to be going over with audiences as well the typical Marvel Cinematic Universe film, as the film’s B rating on CinemaScore was the lowest ever for an MCU film. At the same time, Eternals will have a few advantages this weekend, as the film will be holding onto its IMAX screens, will be holding onto a sizable amount of its average showtimes from last weekend in general, won’t be facing any new direct competition this weekend and with its 157 minute length, Eternals will likely have a bit of relative built-in back-loading as well. Previous second weekend declines this year for Marvel Cinematic Universe films and Marvel films have included 54 percent for Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, 65 percent for Venom: Let There Be Carnage and 68 percent for Black Widow (which was impacted by being released day-and-date as a Disney+ Premiere Access title). Eternals will likely find itself in the middle of that range this weekend and the film’s midweek grosses on Monday and Tuesday are also pointing towards that direction. Look for Eternals to decline a very sharp 63 percent this weekend to take in $26.5 million. That would still represent the third largest second weekend gross since the re-opening of domestic theatres, behind only Shang-Chi and Venom: Let There Be Carnage (and just ahead of Black Widow).
This weekend’s one new wide release is Paramount’s Clifford the Big Red Dog. The live-action / computer animation hybrid family comedy was directed by Walt Becker and stars Jack Whitehall and Darby Camp. Clifford the Big Red Dog had early access screenings on Tuesday and opened in full on Wednesday, in part to be in theatres for the Veterans Day holiday on Thursday. Clifford the Big Red Dog is opening day-and-date, as the film will also be available via streaming on Paramount+. Critical reviews for Clifford the Big Red Dog have been mixed, but the film is likely to be fairly critic proof at the box office. In addition to the Veterans Day holiday on Thursday, Clifford the Big Red Dog should also get a boost from the current relative lack of family options in the marketplace, especially for the start of the holiday moviegoing season. Back in August, Paramount’s PAW Patrol: The Movie debuted with $13.15 million, while also opening day-and-date. With the midweek opening, Clifford the Big Red Dog may have a three-day opening weekend just below that of PAW Patrol: The Movie. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Clifford the Big Red Dog will open in second place with a three-day weekend gross of $12.0 million and $17.5 million with the addition of Tuesday through Thursday midweek grosses.
Last weekend saw Warner Bros. and Legendary’s Dune decline a sizable 49.5 percent to take second with $7.79 million. The hold was quite respectable given that Dune lost its IMAX screens to Eternals last weekend. With the loss of the film’s IMAX screens now behind it, Dune should hold up far better this weekend. In addition to the relative lack of new competition this weekend, holdovers in general should also get a bit of boost from moviegoers looking to catch up with (or catch again) high-profile holdovers before Sony’s Ghostbusters: Afterlife and Warner’s King Richard enter the marketplace next weekend. Dune could decrease just 25.5 percent this weekend to claim third with $5.8 million.
A number of other holdovers should also see healthy holds this weekend. United Artists Releasing and MGM’s No Time To Die could decline a slim 19 percent to take fourth with $4.9 million, Sony’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage could decrease just 24 percent to place in fifth with $3.4 million, Disney and 20th Century’s Ron’s Gone Wrong could fall a solid 33 percent (as a result of the new direct competition from Clifford the Big Red Dog) to claim sixth with $2.4 million and Disney and Searchlight’s The French Dispatch could continue to hold up well by easing only 23 percent to land in seventh with $2.0 million. This weekend should also see Venom: Let There Be Carnage surpass the $200 million domestic mark and likely see No Time To Die surpass the $150 million domestic mark.
Also opening in theatres this weekend is Focus’ Belfast. The Kenneth Branagh directed film set in late 1960s Northern Ireland stars Caitríona Balfe, Judi Dench, Jamie Dornan, Ciarán Hinds and Jude Hill. Belfast will be opening exclusively in theatres this weekend in an estimated 600 locations. The film will also have Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM. Critical reviews for Belfast have been very good and the film is one of this year’s awards season hopefuls. Despite the positive critical buzz around the film, Belfast will still have to deal with the much discussed current state of the specialty market, which has struggled in general since re-opening. Two of the better recent comparisons for Belfast may be NEON and Topic Studios’ Spencer, which debuted with $2.10 million from 996 locations last weekend and fellow Focus release The Card Counter, which started out with $1.04 million from 580 locations back in September. Belfast may open in-between those two films with $1.40 million this weekend, which would be good enough for eighth place for the frame. In the bigger picture, whether or not Belfast is able to remain in theatres throughout the awards season will be of greater importance to the film’s prospects. As for the mentioned Spencer, look for the Kristen Stewart-led film to decline a sizable 48 percent in its second weekend to place in ninth with $1.10 million.