Weekend Box Office Predictions: October 8 – October 10, 2021

Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.

After last weekend’s break out debut by Sony’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage, the domestic box office will look to keep up the momentum this weekend with the release of United Artists Releasing and MGM’s No Time To Die. The 25th film in the official James Bond series was directed by Cary Joji Fukunaga and represents the last time that Daniel Craig will star as Bond. No Time To Die also features Rami Malek, Léa Seydoux and Lashana Lynch. In general, critical reviews for No Time To Die have been good. No Time To Die had been scheduled to open back in April of 2020, but ended up being pushed back a year and a half due to the COVID-19 pandemic. No Time To Die opened throughout much of the international marketplace last weekend and was off to a terrific international launch of $121.3 million (and that was with the film not yet having opened in China). No Time To Die will be playing exclusively in theatres in 4,407 locations this weekend, which represents the largest location count of any film since the re-opening of domestic theatres (Jungle Cruise previously held that high-water mark with a location count of 4,310). No Time To Die will be playing on IMAX screens this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM (the film also had additional preview shows on Wednesday night).

After the break-out performance of Venom: Let There Be Carnage last weekend (as well as the strong international start of No Time To Die), there has been some chatter that No Time to Die could be in store for a break-out domestic start of its own this weekend. However, that will be easier said than done due in part to the 163 minute length of No Time To Die and Venom: Let There Be Carnage holding onto a high percentage of its showtimes this weekend both limiting the amount of showings per location that No Time To Die will have this weekend (by recent blockbuster film standards). In turn, No Time To Die is likely to be less front-loaded towards opening weekend than Venom: Let There Be Carnage will likely be (more on that in a bit). In more recent years, the James Bond franchise, while still very successful domestically, also hasn’t been known for monstrous domestic opening weekends. Back in 2008 Quantum of Solace started out with $67.53 million, while a bit more recently in 2015 Spectre debuted with $70.40 million. It wouldn’t be a surprise for No Time To Die to open in the same neighborhood as those films, especially with the various limiting factors the film will have to deal with this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting an opening weekend of $68.0 million for No Time To Die this weekend (including all preview grosses), which would represent the fifth largest opening weekend since the re-opening of domestic theatres, the fifth largest October opening weekend of all-time and the third largest debut ever for a James Bond film (behind only Skyfall and Spectre). It would also give the film a very healthy per-location average of $15,430 for the frame.

Last weekend Sony’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage debuted with $90.03 million, which represented the largest opening weekend since the re-opening of domestic theatres. As impressive as last weekend’s debut was, Venom: Let There Be Carnage is likely to take a significant hit this weekend due in part to built-in front-loading and the arrival of No Time To Die in the marketplace this weekend (which Venom: Let There Be Carnage will lose its IMAX screens to). The midweek holds this week for Venom: Let There Be Carnage also haven’t been the greatest, though some of that may be due to the film potentially being more weekend-heavy that 2018’s Venom was. Venom: Let There Be Carnage will get some help this weekend from good word of mouth (the film received a solid B+ rating on CinemaScore), from holding onto a high percentage of its showtimes from last weekend and from the Columbus Day / Indigenous Peoples’ Day / Canadian Thanksgiving holidays on Monday giving a bit of a boost to this weekend’s grosses in general. During its second weekend of release Venom declined 56 percent to gross $35.01 million, but new competition that weekend (First ManGoosebumps 2 and Bad Times at the El Royale) was much weaker than what Venom: Let There Be Carnage will face this weekend in No Time To Die. Look for Venom: Let There Be Carnage to decline a sharp 64.5 percent this weekend to take second with $32.0 million. That would represent the second largest second weekend gross since re-opening (behind only the recent $34.70 million second weekend gross of Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings).

United Artists Releasing and MGM’s The Addams Family 2 is coming off of a solid second place debut of $17.33 million. The computer animated sequel received a respectable B rating on CinemaScore. Back in 2019 The Addams Family declined 46 percent to gross $16.32 million during its second weekend. Due in part to opening significantly lower than its predecessor, in part to facing no new competition for family audiences this weekend (whereas during its second weekend The Addams Family had to contend with the opening of Maleficent: Mistress of Evil), and in part to the Columbus Day / Indigenous Peoples’ Day / Canadian Thanksgiving holidays, The Addams Family 2 could hold up a bit better than The Addams Family did during its second weekend. One factor that will likely limit The Addams Family 2 a bit this weekend is that the film looks to be losing a slightly higher percentage of its showtimes per location this weekend than most other family films have this year during their respective second weekends of release. A solid 43 percent decline would transfer into $9.8 million for The Addams Family 2 this weekend.

Disney’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings is coming off of a third place gross of $6.11 million, which was down a sizable 53 percent from the previous frame. Shang-Chi likely won’t fall off quite that much this weekend, but still probably won’t completely re-stabilize either, especially with the film playing in 655 fewer locations this weekend than last weekend. Expect Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings to decline a respectable 44 percent this weekend to place in fourth with $3.4 million. In the bigger picture, Shang-Chi continues to pad its status as the highest grossing film domestically since re-opening.

As for some of this weekend’s other holdovers, after a softer than expected fourth place start of $4.65 million last weekend, Warner’s The Many Saints of Newark could decline a sharp 61 percent to place in fifth this weekend with a modest $1.8 million. And due in part to both films experiencing large theatre count losses this weekend, Disney and 20th Century’s Free Guy could decrease a sizable 54 percent to place in sixth with $1.05 million and Universal’s Dear Evan Hansen could fall a sharp 62 percent to land in seventh with $0.95 million.

While an official location count isn’t available as of publishing, A24’s Lamb looks to be opening in moderate release this weekend. The Icelandic-language film directed by Valdimar Jóhannsson stars Noomi Rapace, Hilmir Snaer Gudnason and Björn Hlynur Haraldsson. As is usually the case for distributor A24, critical reviews for the film have been strong. Unfortunately, as witnessed by NEON’s Titane last weekend, the specialty release market continues to remain weak in general. BoxOfficeReport isn’t making an official prediction for Lamb this weekend, but the film could find itself towards the bottom of this weekend’s top ten.

Read full predictions at BoxOfficeReport.com

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