Weekend Box Office Predictions: October 1 – October 3, 2021

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Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.

Coming off of the slowest overall weekend at the domestic box office since all the way back in May, the box office will look to bounce back in a big way this weekend with three new wide releases entering the marketplace. The highest profile of the new three wide releases is obviously Sony’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage. The sequel to 2018’s Venom was directed by Andy Serkis and stars Tom Hardy, Woody Harrelson, Michelle Williams and Naomie Harris. Venom: Let There Be Carnage will be opening exclusively in theatres this weekend (in 4,225 locations), will be playing on IMAX screens and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. Back in October of 2018, Venom opened with $80.26 million, before going on to finish its domestic run with $213.52 million. While the addition of Carnage likely won’t help the film build upon the domestic performance of Venom, it should help Venom: Let There Be Carnage better maintain the audience of the original Venom. And while The Addams Family 2 and The Many Saints of Newark are also opening this weekend, those films combined shouldn’t provide the same level of opening weekend competition for Venom: Let There Be Carnage that A Star is Born provided for Venom three years ago. Opening just one week before United Artists Releasing and MGM’s No Time To Die enters the domestic marketplace should also help increase opening weekend demand for Venom: Let There Be Carnage this weekend. While critical reviews for Venom: Let There Be Carnage have been mixed; on the average the film’s critical reviews have also been significantly stronger than those of Venom. BoxOfficeReport is predicting a debut of $69.0 million for Venom: Let There Be Carnage this weekend, which would represent the fourth largest opening weekend since the re-opening of domestic theatres and the fourth largest October opening weekend of all-time. It would also give the film a per-location average of $16,331 for the frame.

Also opening this weekend is United Artists Releasing and MGM’s The Addams Family 2. The computer animated sequel to 2019’s The Addams Family was directed by Greg Tiernan and Conrad Vernon and features the vocal talents of Oscar Isaac, Charlize Theron and ChloĆ« Grace Moretz. Back in October of 2019 The Addams Family debuted with $30.30 million before going on to gross $100.04 million domestically during its initial run. The Addams Family 2 will be opening day-and-date this weekend, theatrically and via streaming on PVOD. The film will be playing in a very wide 4,207 locations and will also be playing on multiple screens at most locations this weekend. As of publishing, reviews haven’t started coming in yet for The Addams Family 2. That typically isn’t a good sign, though 2019’s The Addams Family proved to be critic-proof at the box office. One of the better more recent comparisons for The Addams Family 2 may be The Boss Baby: Family Business, which debuted with $16.00 million back in July. With a larger opening weekend location count, The Addams Family 2 could open a bit higher with $17.0 million this weekend (for a per-location average of $4,041 for the frame). Beyond this weekend, The Addams Family 2 could hold up fairly well in the weeks ahead thanks in part to no other family films entering the marketplace until Disney and 20th Century’s Ron’s Gone Wrong does so on October 22 and in part to the pre-Halloween season.

The weekend’s third new wide release is Warner and New Line’s The Many Saints of Newark. The crime drama serves as a prequel to the HBO series The Sopranos, was directed by Alan Taylor and features an ensemble cast that include Alessandro Nivola, Leslie Odom Jr., Jon Bernthal, Corey Stoll, Michael Gandolfini, Ray Liotta and Vera Farmiga. The Many Saints of Newark is opening day-and-date this weekend, theatrically (in 3,180 locations) and via streaming on HBO Max. As with most previous Warner Bros. HBO Max releases, The Many Saints of Newark won’t have Thursday preview shows. The overall feeling seems to be that the film’s box office potential will be especially limited by being available on HBO Max as a result of The Sopranos being an HBO series. Critical reviews for The Many Saints of Newark have been good, but perhaps not as strong as most would have expected. While The Many Saints of Newark should get off to a better theatrical start than Warner’s most recent day-and-date releases (ReminiscenceMalignant and Cry Macho), especially on the east coast, the film is still likely to be a fairly modest performer in its own right this weekend. Look for The Many Saints of Newark to debut in third place this weekend with $8.5 million (for a per-location average of $2,673 for the frame).

After leading the box office with ease over the past four weeks (including a $13.03 million take last weekend), Disney’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings is likely to claim fourth place this weekend. In addition to facing new direct competition from Venom: Let There Be CarnageShang-Chi will also be losing the remainder of its IMAX showtimes to Venom: Let There Be Carnage this weekend and will also be playing in 497 fewer locations than last weekend. A sizable 52 percent decline would give Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings $6.2 million for the frame. In the bigger picture, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings is about to surpass the $200 million domestic milestone and will continue to pad its status as the highest grossing film domestically since re-opening.

As for some of this weekend’s other holdovers, after a modest second place debut of $7.44 million last weekend, Universal’s Dear Evan Hansen is likely to be front-loaded given its built-in audience and could fall three spots and a sharp 62 percent to land in fifth with $2.8 million. And while it won’t hold up as well as it has in recent weeks, Disney and 20th Century’s Free Guy is still likely to experience this weekend’s best percentage hold among wide releases. Look for Free Guy to decrease just 34 percent from last weekend to gross $2.7 million this weekend (to battle it out with Dear Evan Hansen for fifth place).

Opening in moderate release this weekend is NEON’s Titane. The Julia Ducournau directed French-language thriller stars Agathe Roussell and Vincent Lindon. In addition to the film’s strong critical reviews, there is additional buzz surrounding Titane thanks to Ducournau winning the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival this year. Titane will be playing in 562 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM. Due in part to winning the Palme d’Or, Titane could get off to a slightly stronger start than most other recent specialty releases, though the film’s location and showtime counts will still limit its potential this weekend. Titane could debut with $1.4 million this weekend, for a per-location average of $2,491 for the frame and to place in seventh among all films this weekend.

Read full predictions at BoxOfficeReport.com

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