Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.
This weekend, Disney’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings will look to make it four weekends in a row at the top of the domestic box office. The blockbuster comic book adaptation is coming off a strong third weekend hold in which it declined just 38 percent to gross $21.67 million. That easily represented the largest third weekend gross since the re-opening of domestic theatres (a mark that was previously held by fellow Disney release Free Guy with $13.16 million) and this weekend Shang-Chi shouldn’t have a problem registering the largest fourth weekend gross since re-opening (a mark currently held by A Quiet Place Part II with $9.09 million). In addition to continuing to benefit from strong critical reviews and terrific word of mouth, Shang-Chi should also receive an added boost this weekend from moviegoers who want to catch the film (or catch it again) before fellow comic book adaptation Sony’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage enters the marketplace next weekend. Look for Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings to decline 33 percent this weekend to place in first with $14.5 million. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings is also set to surpass the current $183.43 million domestic gross of fellow Disney / Marvel release Black Widow to become the highest grossing film domestically since re-opening.
This weekend’s highest profile new release is Universal’s Dear Evan Hansen. The Stephen Chbosky directed musical features Ben Platt, Amy Adams, Julianne Moore, Kaitlyn Denver and Amandla Stenberg. The film is an adaptation of the popular 2015 stage musical of the same name. Dear Evan Hansen will be playing in 3,364 locations this weekend, will be playing exclusively in theatres and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM. Dear Evan Hansen will also be sharing IMAX screens with Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings this weekend. Unfortunately pre-release buzz for Dear Evan Hansen has been mixed at best and now that the film has arrived, critical reviews have been largely negative. Fans of the stage musical should still be enough to help Dear Evan Hansen register the second largest opening weekend of this September, but the film is likely to be quite front-loaded towards opening weekend and could very well start displaying early front-loading this weekend itself. BoxOfficeReport is predicting a second place start of $8.3 million for Dear Evan Hansen this weekend (for a per-location average of $2,467 for the frame).
Last weekend Disney and 20th Century’s Free Guy had a terrific hold as the well-received sci-fi comedy decreased a slim 9 percent to place in second with $5.09 million. Free Guy should be in store for a similar hold this weekend, especially with the film continuing to hold onto a high percentage of its locations and showtimes. A slim 10 percent decline would give Free Guy a third place take of $4.6 million this weekend.
Warner’s Cry Macho is coming off of a modest third place debut of $4.43 million, while Universal and MGM’s Candyman declined only 26 percent to place in fourth with $3.52 million. The two films could be very close to one another this weekend, with Candyman potentially having the slight edge between the two. Look for Candyman to decline just 23 percent to place in fourth with $2.7 million and for Cry Macho to fall 41 percent to land in fifth with $2.6 million.
As for some of this weekend’s other holdovers, Disney’s Jungle Cruise could decrease a very slim 9 percent to take sixth with $1.9 million, Warner’s Malignant could decline a respectable 41 percent to place in seventh with $1.6 million, Paramount’s PAW Patrol: The Movie could drop a slim 13 percent to claim eighth with $1.5 million and Open Road and Briarcliff’s Copshop could slide 46 percent in its second weekend to fall to ninth with $1.25 million.
After debuting with a modest $0.65 million last weekend from a moderate 450 locations, Disney and Searchlight’s The Eyes of Tammy Faye will be playing in a semi-wide 1,352 locations this weekend. Thanks to the location count increase, The Eyes of Tammy Faye could increase 23 percent from last weekend to claim tenth place this weekend with $0.80 million.
This weekend will also see Sony re-release the 2011 film Courageous (with the re-issue being titled Courageous Legacy). The faith-based film from the Kendrick Brothers will be playing in 1,023 locations this weekend. While BoxOfficeReport isn’t making an official prediction for Courageous Legacy this weekend, the film could open similarly to the recent Show Me the Father (also from the Kendrick Brothers and Sony), which debuted with $0.70 million in semi-wide release two weeks ago.