Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
It’s that time of year where the best and most popular in television is honored. In a season where Ozark and Succession were put on hold, there was still some amazing television and talent that entertained and moved. Here are my predictions for this year’s Emmys.
Outstanding Directing for in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Hamilton, Thomas Kail
I May Destroy You, “Ego Death,” Sam Miller, Michaela Coel
I May Destroy You, “Eyes Eyes Eyes Eyes,” Sam Miller
Mare of Easttown, Craig Zobel
The Queen’s Gambit, Scott Frank
The Underground Railroad, Barry Jenkins
Winner: WandaVision, Matt Shakman
While these are meant to be predictions, this one could be anyone’s guess. Matt Shakman is beloved in television direction and WandaVision is grand in its scale so that could be the frontrunner. However, Scott Frank’s creation of The Queen’s Gambit and Zobel’s creation of Mare of Easttown could win from their popularity alone and impressive direction.
Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Winner: I May Destroy You, Michaela Coel
Mare of Easttown, Brad Ingelsby
The Queen’s Gambit, Scott Frank
WandaVision, “Filmed Before A Live Studio Audience,” Jac Schaeffer
WandaVision, “Previously On,” Laura Donney
WandaVision, “All-New Halloween Spooktacular!” Chuck Hayward, Peter Cameron
I May Destroy You will probably not receive many other awards (which is an absolute shame), so this would be a fitting way to honor Michaela Coel whose writing in that series can’t be ignored.
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
B Positive, “Pilot,” James Burrows
Hacks, “There Is No Line (Pilot),” Lucia Aniello
Mom, “Scooby-Doo Checks And Salisbury Steak,” James Widdoes
Ted Lasso, “Biscuits,” Zach Braff
Ted Lasso, “The Hope That Kills You,” MJ Delaney
Ted Lasso, “Make Rebecca Great Again,” Declan Lowney
Winner: The Flight Attendant, “In Case of Emergency,” Susanna Fogel
Ted Lasso is obviously going to have a great night but those episodes will cancel each other out. Hacks is popular but it’s stronger in its writing. This will most likely be the one of the few wins for The Flight Attendant and a directing win is fitting.
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
Girls5eva, “Pilot, Meredith Scardino
Hacks, “There Is No Line (Pilot),” Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, Jen Statsky
Pen15, “Play,” Maya Erskine
Winner: Ted Lasso, “Make Rebecca Great Again,” Jason Sudeikis, Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly
Ted Lasso, “Pilot,” Jason Sudeikis, Bill Lawrence, Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly
The Flight Attendant, “In Case Of Emergency,” Steve Yockey
The theme among the comedy categories is going to be a competition between Ted Lasso vs Hacks and this will be one of those awards. Ted Lasso is the popular pick and with this turning point episode of “Make Rebecca Great Again”, yet Hacks could come in for the steal, but don’t be surprised if they cancel each other out and Pen15 pulls a massive upset.
Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
Bridgerton, “Diamond Of The First Water,” Julie Anne Robinson
Pose, “Series Finale,” Steve Canals
The Crown, “Fairytale,” Benjamin Caron
The Crown, “War,” Jessica Hobbs
The Handmaid’s Tale, “The Wilderness,” Liz Garbus
Winner: The Mandalorian, “Chapter 9: The Marshal,” Jon Favreau
The Crown is the popular drama this year and will win many awards, possibly winning direction for “Fairytale” but this feels like it will go to Favreau for a high action episode of The Mandalorian.
Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
Lovecraft Country, “Sundown,” Misha Green”
Pose, “Series Finale,” Ryan Murphy, Brad Falchuk, Steven Canals, Janet Mock, Our Lady J
Winner: The Boys, “What I Know,” Rebecca Sonnenshine
The Crown, “War,” Peter Morgan
The Handmaid’s Tale, “Home,” Yahlin Chang
The Mandalorian, “Chapter 13: The Jedi,” Dave Filoni
The Mandalorian, “Chapter 16: The Rescue,” Jon Favreau
The obvious pick is The Crown as no other shows seem to have writing as their strong suit and yet The Boys avoided a sophomore slump and landed the second season perfectly and while this would be an unconventional pick, it’s my surprise of the night.
Supporting Actress, Limited Series/TV Movie
Renée Elise Goldsberry, “Hamilton”
Winner: Kathryn Hahn, “WandaVision”
Moses Ingram, “The Queen’s Gambit”
Julianne Nicholson, “Mare of Easttown”
Jean Smart, “Mare of Easttown”
Phillipa Soo, “Hamilton”
There seems to be a clear winner with Kathryn Hahn and that is the safe bet. However, there is the chance of plenty of upsets. Jean Smart already has a lock on another Emmy win and can get enough votes here, while Julianne Nicholson gives a notable performance but not until the very end. Hahn gives the performance that is the most fun grabbing attention.
Supporting Actor, Limited Series/TV Movie
Thomas Brodie-Sangster, “The Queen’s Gambit”
Daveed Diggs, “Hamilton”
Paapa Essiedu, “I May Destroy You”
Jonathan Groff, “Hamilton”
Winner: Evan Peters, “Mare of Easttown”
Anthony Ramos, “Hamilton”
The overwhelming presence of actors from Hamilton is difficult to ignore and one of them could grab the win, or they can cancel each other out. The other nominees were all surprises but Evan Peters is a true standout who has a high chance of securing the win.
Supporting Actresss Comedy
Aidy Bryant, “Saturday Night Live”
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
Kate McKinnon, “Saturday Night Live”
Rosie Perez, “The Flight Attendant”
Cecily Strong, “Saturday Night Live”
Juno Temple, “Ted Lasso”
Winner: Hannah Waddingham, “Ted Lasso”
Hannah Waddingham has been the clear frontrunner for the majority of the race and that hasn’t seemed to change. Rosie Perez could be another favorite to upset and Hannah Einbender could win by riding the momentum of Hacks, but neither seem likely.
Supporting Actor Comedy
Carl Clemons-Hopkins, “Hacks”
Brett Goldstein, “Ted Lasso”
Brendan Hunt, “Ted Lasso”
Nick Mohammed, “Ted Lasso”
Paul Reiser, “The Kominsky Method”
Jeremy Swift, “Ted Lasso”
Kenan Thompson, “Saturday Night Live”
Winner: Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live”
This will turn into a battle of the SNL actors. Kenan Thompson is an absolute legend of the show and has kept it running during its modern era yet has never won a performance award. However, Bowen Yang had the most standout season and is the popular newcomer that everyone’s talking about. So will it be the established and overdue legend or the wave making newcomer? It’s the ultimate toss up.
Supporting Actress, Drama
Winner: Gillian Anderson, “The Crown”
Helena Bonham Carter, “The Crown”
Madeline Brewer, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Ann Dowd, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Aunjanue Ellis, “Lovecraft Country”
Emerald Fennell, “The Crown”
Yvonne Strahovski, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Samira Wiley, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
It’s Gillian Anderson. Hands down. She is doing the most acting and therefore getting the most eyeballs. Voters could throw it to an overdue Helena Bonham Carter but it’s an incredibly slight chance.
Supporting Actor, Drama
Giancarlo Esposito, “The Mandalorian”
O-T Fagbenle, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
John Lithgow, “Perry Mason”
Tobias Menzies, “The Crown”
Max Minghella, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Chris Sullivan, “This Is Us”
Bradley Whitford, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Winner: Winner: Michael Kenneth Williams, “Lovecraft Country”
Michael K Williams was the front runner for this award before his untimely death. It was going to be a career win after he was never nominated for his portrayal as Omar in The Wire and has yet to win for other roles. His performance in Lovecraft Country was impactful, deserving enough for a win. Williams is going to win but it won’t have to do with the recent news as voting was already closed at the time of his death. Hopefully, he receives this honor which will unfortunately be a career win in a final sense.
Lead Actor, Limited Series/TV Movie
Paul Bettany, “WandaVision”
Hugh Grant, “The Undoing”
Ewan McGregor, “Halston”
Winner: Winner: Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Hamilton”
Leslie Odom Jr., “Hamilton”
With no other standout, Lin-Manuel Miranda can possibly win for a musical filmed five years ago. Paul Bettany is surprisingly getting a lot of talk for a very unconventional character and Hugh Grant could be the sole win for The Undoing, which was very popular but did not receive many nominations. However, Miranda looks like he will be taking home one more award for Hamilton.
Lead Actress, Limited Series/TV Movie
Michaela Coel, “I May Destroy You”
Cynthia Erivo, “Genius: Aretha”
Elizabeth Olsen, “WandaVision”
Winner: Anya Taylor-Joy, “The Queen’s Gambit”
Kate Winslet, “Mare of Easttown”
This is the most stacked category of the list and anyone could get the trophy. However it seems to be narrowed down to Kate Winslet and Anya Taylor-Joy both with strong performances in popular shows. While Winslet’s show is more recent, Taylor-Joy’s popularity is climbing.
Lead Actress, Comedy
Aidy Bryant, “Shrill”
Kaley Cuoco, “The Flight Attendant”
Allison Janney, “Mom”
Tracee Ellis Ross, “black-ish”
Winner: Jean Smart, “Hacks”
There is no other category that is more certain than Jean Smart. She is beloved, her performance is great, and the show is popular and well received. It’s an easy win.
Lead Actor, Comedy
Anthony Anderson, “black-ish”
Michael Douglas, “The Kominsky Method”
William H. Macy, “Shameless”
Winner: Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”
Kenan Thompson, “Kenan”
Like Smart, this is another slam dunk with Jason Sudekis who is going to be the clear winner and will continue Ted Lasso’s domination. There is the chance of an insane upset from Macy, but it’s a slim chance.
Lead Actress, Drama
Uzo Aduba, “In Treatment”
Olivia Colman, “The Crown”
Emma Corrin, “The Crown”
Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Winner: Mj Rodriguez, “Pose”
Jurnee Smollett, “Lovecraft Country”
This could go numerous ways but it can be narrowed down to Emma Corrin and Mj Rodriguez. Corrin has a great story as a stand-in turned performer in a show that will be winning many Emmys, while many would want to give a historic win to Rodriguez as the first trans woman to win a Best Lead Actress Emmy. Corrin was the frontrunner for a while, but this is probably going to Rodriguez.
Lead Actor, Drama
Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us”
Jonathan Majors, “Lovecraft Country”
Josh O’Connor, “The Crown”
Regé-Jean Page, “Bridgerton”
Winner: Billy Porter, “Pose”
Matthew Rhys, “Perry Mason”
The Crown’s popularity could give an Emmy to Josh O’Connor and Regé-Jean Page gives a star-making performance from a very popular show. Yet, all signs point to Billy Porter. He gave his best performance in season three of Pose and has drawn love from so many through his announcements in the headlines. While he already won for this performance, it’s his year once again.
“Dolly Parton’s Christmas on the Square”
“Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia”
Winner: “Sylvie’s Love”
Sylvie’s Love should have been given proper Oscar consideration but Amazon dropped the ball. However, the quality of this film is miles ahead of the other nominees and will absolutely win.
“I May Destroy You”
Winner: “Mare of Easttown”
“The Queen’s Gambit”
“The Underground Railroad”
Like Best Actress, this will come down to Queen’s Gambit and Mare of Easttown and this time a recency bias will probably help Mare get a much deserved win, but it can truly go either way.
“Emily in Paris”
“The Flight Attendant”
“The Kominsky Method”
Winner: “Ted Lasso”
Ted Lasso is the front runner and that’s where to bet the smart money. It’s been holding that lead for a while. There’s a chance Hacks or The Flight Attendant could cause an upset, but there’s still not much denying Ted Lasso with its momentum.
Winner: “The Crown”
“The Handmaid’s Tale”
“This Is Us”
The Crown has yet to win the top prize of Best Drama and not only is it due, but this was its most eventful season full of drama. There is the slightest chance of Pose winning with the popularity that it’s gaining but it’s not likely.
While many different surprises can happen on the big night, this was a great year for television in which most of it was created in the pandemic and all of it was watched in the pandemic. No matter who wins, the front runners or the upsets, great art will be honored. Be sure to catch the Emmys on Sunday September 19th at 8 EST and watch myself and my future wife on Instagram live with all the reactions.