Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Disney’s Jungle Cruise is set to launch comfortably in first place at this weekend’s box office. The Jaume Collet-Serra directed adventure film stars Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt. In addition to the star power of Johnson and Blunt (who is coming off of the recent box office success of A Quiet Place Part II), Jungle Cruise will obviously benefit from fans of the popular Jungle Cruise Disney theme park attraction that the film is based on. Jungle Cruise will be playing in 4,310 locations this weekend, which represents a new-high water mark for the largest opening weekend location count since the re-opening of domestic theaters (surpassing the 4,160 locations fellow Disney release Black Widow debuted in earlier this month). Jungle Cruise will also be playing on IMAX screens this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM. Overall buzz for Jungle Cruise seems to be breaking late, which has often been the case for films starring Johnson. Critical reviews for the film have been mixed, more so positive than negative. The box office potential for Jungle Cruise will likely be limited somewhat as a result of the film opening day-and-date this weekend, theatrically and via streaming as a Premier Access title on Disney+. Compared to other recent films, the best opening weekend comparison for Jungle Cruise may be Space Jam: A New Legacy, which debuted with $31.05 million two weeks ago. BoxOfficeReport expects Jungle Cruise to debut with $29.5 million this weekend, which would represent the sixth largest three-day opening weekend since re-opening.
Also arriving in theatres this weekend is A24’s The Green Knight. The David Lowery directed fantasy adventure film stars Dev Patel, Alicia Vikander and Joel Edgerton. The Green Knight will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM. Online buzz for The Green Knight has been strong since the debut of the film’s first trailer back in February of 2020 and critical reviews for the film have been very strong as well. It feels as though The Green Knight has some break-out potential this weekend, but at the same time it is also very possible that anticipation for the film has been inflated online. Another factor that will limit break-out potential for The Green Knight this weekend is that on the average the film looks to be receiving a fairly modest amount of showtimes per location. BoxOfficeReport feels that The Green Knight will take second place this weekend with $8.2 million. That would represent the fourth largest opening weekend ever for A24, behind only 2018’s Hereditary, 2019’s Uncut Gems and 2016’s The Witch.
After debuting in first place last weekend with a solid $16.85 million, Universal’s Old could find itself in the same neighborhood as The Green Knight this weekend. With mixed critical reviews and respectable word of mouth, Old will likely experience a fairly average second weekend hold. Most of director M. Night Shyamalan’s films also tend to experience significant second weekend percentage declines. Old could get a small boost from holding onto its showtimes per location better than most other wide releases this weekend, but at the same time three new wide releases entering the marketplace will take a toll on holdovers in general this weekend. Look for Old to decline a sizable, but understandable 54 percent this weekend to place in third with $7.8 million.
Disney’s Black Widow dropped a sharp 55 percent last weekend to place in third with $11.62 million. Black Widow just hasn’t been able to stabilize much thus far and with the film playing in 890 fewer locations this weekend than last weekend (for a total of 3,360 locations), Black Widow is likely in store for another sizable decline this weekend. Black Widow could decrease 49 percent this weekend to land in fourth with $5.9 million, as the film continues to inch closer to F9 in its quest of becoming the highest grossing film domestically since re-opening.
After softer than expected grosses last weekend for both films, Paramount’s Snake Eyes and Warner’s Space Jam: A New Legacy will both likely experience sharp declines this weekend. Snake Eyes, which is coming off of a $13.37 million second place debut, could decline a sharp 63 percent this weekend (due in part to modest word of mouth and losing IMAX screens to Jungle Cruise), to take fifth with $4.9 million. Space Jam: A New Legacy declined a troubling 69 percent last weekend to place in fourth with $9.58 million, and while the film should hold up better this weekend than it did last weekend, Space Jam: A New Legacy could still be in store for a sharp 55 percent decline this weekend to claim sixth place with $4.3 million.
The weekend’s third wide release is Focus’ Stillwater. The Tom McCarthy directed drama stars Matt Damon, Camille Cottin and Abigail Breslin. Stillwater will be playing in 2,531 locations this weekend and like The Green Knight, Stillwater will also have Thursday night preview shows beginning at 7PM. On the average, critical reviews for Stillwater have been good, but at the same time also haven’t been as strong as most likely initially expected them to be. It also feels as though the better reviewed The Green Knight has stolen some of the opening weekend potential away from Stillwater, which was relatively modest to begin with. Stillwater could be looking at the type of opening weekend that was more commonplace in the initial months after re-opening, such as the $4.00 million start of fellow Focus release Let Him Go back in November. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Stillwater will start out in seventh place this weekend with $4.2 million.
Meanwhile, Universal’s F9 should continue to hold up relatively well this weekend. A 40 percent decline from last weekend would represent this weekend’s best percentage hold among wide releases and would place F9 in eighth this weekend with $2.9 million.