Awards analysis is provided by Sean from @MathTeacherMovies.
Throughout the next few weeks, I will be examining each section of the Emmys this year since the qualifying window just closed and the nominations will be announced this month. This week I will be getting into the Drama category.
Much like Ted Lasso will be dominating comedy, The Crown will probably dominate the Drama category in an almost Schitt’s Creek-like fashion. The Crown is a definite nomination and a probable win for Best Drama Series.
The Mandalorian had an amazing sophomore season and will once again get a nomination. Meanwhile, Bridgerton and Perry Mason exploded on the scene with beloved inaugural seasons by both critics and audiences alike. These shows have the best chance of a nomination.
Pose finished up the series with a beautiful final season that may not have been popular, but it would be a welcome surprise to close out the show with a nomination for Drama. Lovecraft Country was inventive and unconventional. It was a surprise hit and garnered early buzz but it’s recent cancellation may hinder its chances. The Handmaid’s Tale took things up a notch in its latest season, but nomination for Best Drama Series is a bit of a long shot.
This season of The Crown focused on the relationship between Prince Charles and Princess Diana. Josh O’Connor’s Prince Charles was at the center of the show, making him a front runner to win or at least be nominated for Best Actor in a Drama Series.
Regé-Jean Page gave a star-making performance in Bridgerton which will be tough to ignore come nomination time. The same can be said of Billy Porter who nobly sends his character off in the third and final seasonin Pose. Porter has won this award for his role in Pose before and he will most likely get the nomination this year.
Perry Mason is highlighted by its performances and its best one comes from Matthew Rhys who is no stranger to the Emmys and is beloved in the first season of his new show. The same is the case for Jonathan Majors in Lovecraft Country. Both actors gave powerful lead performances and will most likely see nominations.
The one actor who can play spoiler is Sterling K l. Brown for This Is Us. He not only has the talent and has done so much for that character, but also is beloved in that role, especially after winning in its first season.
For the same reasons as Josh O’Connor’s nomination and probable win in Best Actor, Emma Corrin will also be nominated for Best Actress in a Drama Series as Princess Diana in The Crown. She gave a wonderful performance this season.
Olivia Colman is also considered a leading actor in The Crown and this was her last season. Therefore, it’s likely that she will be nominated for a final chance to win an award for this role. Uzo Aduba took over the lead role in the series In Treatment which was loved by the Emmys in the past and will probably get her another nomination after her win last year.
Elisabeth Moss has been constant throughout the ups and downs of The Handmaid’s Tale and both are having an upswing this season. Moss could once again get recognition. Jurnee Smollet, another Lovecraft Country performer, has a chance of being nominated and is gaining more attention for this role and her other opportunities in Hollywood.
Phoebe Dynevor’s Bridgerton performance might earn her a nomination this year, due in part to the show’s popularity. MJ Rodrigez could do the same with the final season of Pose. Finally, Sarah Paulson could get a nomination for her role in Ratched due to its association (and her association) with Ryan Murphy.
Although he was never nominated as Omar from The Wire and has since been nominated quite a bit, it seems like this is the year that Michael K. Williams will win an Emmy for Lovecraft Country for Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series. He will not only win it because he is due and talented, but because his performance is that good in this show that is ending too far soon.
Don’t worry, there will still be a nomination for The Crown in this category and it will be Tobias Menzies who is yet to be nominated and deserves to be before he leaves the show. While he was a mere guest appearance on the show last season, in this season Giancarlo Esposito was a formidable villain in The Mandalorian’s second season and launched in popularity even more.
Bradley Whitford has been one of the many constant standout performances in The Handmaid’s Tale and has been nominated in the past, but his performance and character improved this season and should be nominated.
John Lithgow was not in a large amount of Perry Mason, and yet his presence was known from the beginning and it lasted throughout and so his nomination would make sense. Anthony Ramos, who is becoming a huge star in his own right, has the chance of getting a surprise nomination for his run of episodes in the revival of In Treatment
Once again, The Crown will be nominated, but this time for Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series for Gillian Anderson in her very showy but fun performance as Margaret Thatcher.
After Anderson, there is a long list of possible nominees who are deserving, including Helena Bonham Carter from The Crown who was a past nominee and will probably be a nominee this year.
In Lovecraft Country, Wunmi Mosaku is a tremendous standout in the series and is quite popular to get a nomination. Aunjanue Ellis also gave an emotional performance but it didn’t make as much of an impact.
The Handmaid’s Tale is packed with talent that is too difficult to ignore. Ann Dowd has won the Emmy for this role in the past, but she explores the character more this year. Samira Wiley also won the award for her role in this series as well, but as a guest actress her role has truly evolved and she has been there for it.
Tatiana Maslany made a lot of waves for her role in Perry Mason but the momentum has worn out. Cynthia Nixon could also receive the nomination for her role in Ratched, but this show doesn’t seem to be catching much interest.