Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.
This weekend Paramount’s A Quiet Place Part II will look to make it two weekends in a row at the top of the domestic box office. Last weekend the John Krasinski directed horror sequel starring Emily Blunt outpaced its already lofty expectations to deliver the largest three-day opening weekend debut since the re-opening of domestic theatres with $47.55 million (the film grossed $57.09 million over the four-day holiday frame). While A Quiet Place Part II is highly likely to be more font-loaded than its predecessor was, it should still be able to hold up very well for a horror film in its own right. In addition to receiving strong critical reviews, A Quiet Place Part II looks to be going over very well with moviegoers, as the film received a strong A- rating on CinemaScore (which was just above the B+ grade A Quiet Place received on CinemaScore). A Quiet Place Part II has also been holding up very nicely during the midweek, and has now grossed $65.20 million through Wednesday. The film will obviously have to deal with new direct competition this weekend from Warner’s The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, which will also result in A Quiet Place Part II losing most of its IMAX screens this weekend. However, in addition to being a much more anticipated film to begin with, another major advantage A Quiet Place Part II will have over The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It this weekend is that on the average A Quiet Place Part II will be getting the higher amount of showtimes per location between the two films. So while A Quiet Place Part II will take a hit from The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It this weekend, it shouldn’t be enough to knock A Quiet Place Part II out of first place. BoxOfficeReport is predicting a second weekend take of $23.5 million for A Quiet Place Part II, which would be down a sizable, but very respectable 51 percent from last weekend’s three-day performance, and would represent the largest second weekend gross since the re-opening of theatres (easily surpassing the $13.88 million second weekend gross of Godzilla vs. Kong).
Warner Bros. and New Line’s The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It will be released day-and-date this weekend, theatrically and via streaming on HBO Max. The Michael Chaves directed horror sequel starring Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga represents the third Conjuring film and the eighth installment of the larger The Conjuring Universe. Thus far, critical reviews for The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It on the average have been good, but also not on the same level as those for the first two Conjuring films. In addition to having to go head to head with A Quiet Place Part II this weekend, The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It is probably dealing with some franchise fatigue at this point (2019’s Annabelle Comes Home had respective three-day and five-day starts of $20.27 million and $31.10 million, before going on to finish with $74.15 million domestically). The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It also won’t have Thursday night preview shows this weekend, though as mentioned, the film will be playing on IMAX screens. The film’s location count for the weekend is 3,102. And while The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It will be getting a good amount of showtimes per location this weekend, that figure won’t be reaching the same heights as those for A Quiet Place Part II and Cruella last weekend. BoxOfficeReport expects The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It to open in second place this weekend with $19.5 million, which would represent the sixth largest opening weekend since the re-opening of domestic theatres and give the film a weekend per-location average of $6,286.
Disney’s Cruella was off to a nice start of its own last weekend, with respective three-day and four-day grosses of $21.50 million and $26.53 million. While critical reviews for Cruella have been good instead of great, the film looks to be going over exceptionally well with audiences after receiving a very strong A rating on CinemaScore. And like A Quiet Place Part II, Cruella has been holding up well throughout the midweek; having now grossed $30.49 million through Wednesday. In general, live-action re-imaginings of Disney animated films tend to experience at least sizable second weekend percentage declines. In addition to going over very well with audiences, Cruella could also benefit a bit this weekend from moviegoers who want to see both A Quiet Place II and Cruella that caught A Quiet Place II last weekend (with its PG-13 rating, Cruella is playing a bit less family friendly than the typical live-action Disney re-imagining). Percentage wise, Cruella looks to be taking a somewhat larger showtimes per location hit than A Quiet Place Part II this weekend, but at the same time Cruella won’t have to deal with the loss of IMAX screens. Look for Cruella to decline 47 percent from last weekend’s three-day frame for a solid third place take of $11.5 million.
The weekend’s other new wide release is Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s Spirit Untamed. The Elaine Bogan directed computer animated film is based off of the Spirit Riding Free animated series on Netflix (which is a spin-off of the 2002 traditional animated DreamWorks Animation film Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron). Critical reviews for Spirit Untamed have been mixed, more so negative than positive on the average. Spirit Untamed will be playing in 3,211 locations this weekend and has Thursday night preview shows beginning at 5PM. The lack of recent family fare in the marketplace could give Spirit Untamed a small boost this weekend, but at the same time, family audiences are much more likely to wait until next weekend to catch Sony’s Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway; not to mention that Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon will become available to all Disney+ subscribers beginning this Friday. Instead of the typical DreamWorks Animation film, 2017’s My Little Pony: The Movie (from Lionsgate) is probably a much better box office comparison for Spirit Untamed. That film had a pre-pandemic opening weekend of $8.89 million, before going on to finish its domestic run with $21.89 million. Spirit Untamed could debut in fourth place this weekend with $6.4 million (for a per-location average of $1,993 for the frame).
As for some of this weekend’s other holdovers, look for Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon to decline 47 percent from last weekend’s three-day frame to place in fifth with $1.25 million, for United Artists Releasing and MGM’s Wrath of Man to decrease 45 percent to follow closely behind in sixth with $1.20 million and for Lionsgate’s Spiral to fall a sharp 55 percent to land in seventh with $1.00 million.