Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.
This weekend sees the release of one of the summer’s more anticipated films, as Universal’s F9 hits domestic theaters. The latest installment of the Vin Diesel-led The Fast and The Furious franchise was directed by Justin Lin and brings John Cena into the fold of the franchise. F9 will be playing in 4,179 locations this weekend, which makes F9 the first film to play in over 4,000 domestic locations since the re-opening of theatres (previously Cruella had the widest post-pandemic launch in 3,892 locations). F9 will also be playing on IMAX screens, looks to be receiving the highest showtimes per-location average of any wide release since the re-opening of theatres and will have Thursday night preview shows beginning at 7PM. F9 has already been playing in select international markets over the past few weeks, with the film having grossed $292.5 million from 23 international markets through the end of this past Sunday (including $216.9 million from China). On the average, critical reviews for F9 have been solid, but far from great. All things considered, F9 should be able to easily surpass the $47.55 million three-day start of A Quiet Place Part II to register the largest opening weekend since the re-opening of theatres. In addition to playing in 453 more locations than A Quiet Place Part II did on its opening weekend, F9 is likely at least somewhat more anticipated than A Quiet Place Part II was and will also benefit out of the gate from being more front-loaded towards opening weekend than A Quiet Place Part II was. BoxOfficeReport is expecting a healthy debut of $69.0 million for F9 this weekend, which would give the film a per-location average of $16,511 for the frame and would be significantly higher than the $60.04 million pre-pandemic launch of Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw back in August 2019.
After declining just 24 percent last weekend to take second place with $9.09 million, Paramount’s A Quiet Place Part II appears set to hold up very well once again this weekend to remain in second place. A Quiet Place Part II has continued to display terrific holding power throughout the midweek, as the film’s Wednesday performance was down a slim 9 percent from the previous Wednesday. That much current momentum, combined with a very nice showtimes per-location hold this weekend, should allow A Quiet Place Part II to essentially be F9-proof this weekend. Look for A Quiet Place Part II to decrease just 28 percent from last weekend to take in $6.5 million this weekend.
Last weekend Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard opened on the very high end of consensus expectations with a first place take of $11.40 million over the three-day frame (the film’s five day-start, including all preview grosses, came in at $16.75 million). However, the film is sure to experience a significant second weekend decline this weekend in the face of F9. While Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard is going over fairly well with audiences (the film received a respectable B rating on CinemaScore) and last weekend’s three-day weekend gross was deflated somewhat by the Wednesday opening, the new direct competition from F9 will be too much to overcome this weekend. Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard is also losing its IMAX screens to F9 this weekend, is taking a significant showtimes per-location hit and is coming off a significant Father’s Day boost this past Sunday. A sharp 54 percent decline would transfer into a third place gross of $5.2 million for Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard this weekend.
Sony’s Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway and Disney’s Cruella are both likely to hold up very well this weekend. Both films have been holding up great during the midweek this week and neither film should be impacted much by F9, thanks to different audience demos. Peter Rabbit 2 and Cruella could also both receive small boosts this weekend from family audiences that want to catch either film before Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s The Boss Baby: Family Business enters the marketplace next weekend on July 2. Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway could decline a slim 19 percent this weekend to take in $4.9 million for fourth, while Cruella could decrease just 23 percent to gross $3.7 million for fifth.
Warner Bros. releases The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It and In the Heights should both take much harder hits from F9 this weekend. Between the two films, The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It is likely to hold up a bit better than In the Heights this weekend, due in part to holding onto a higher percentage of its showtimes per location from last weekend than In the Heights will be. Look for The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It to decrease 46 percent to claim sixth with $2.7 million and for In the Heights to fall 52 percent to land in seventh with $2.0 million.