Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.
After last weekend’s surprise return to first place, Paramount’s A Quiet Place Part II could find itself in a very close race for first place this weekend with Lionsgate’s Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard. Last weekend A Quiet Place Part II stabilized in a big way, as the film was down just 38 percent to gross $12.01 million. A Quiet Place Part II has been holding up even better during the midweek so far this week, as on Tuesday the film was down just 30 percent from the previous Tuesday. With the film holding onto its showtimes per location at a better rate this weekend than it did last weekend, continued strong word of mouth and a likely Father’s Day boost on Sunday, A Quiet Place Part II should continue to build further momentum over the weekend. In addition to the Father’s Day holiday, holdovers in general could also get an additional boost this weekend from moviegoers looking to catch up with something before Universal’s highly anticipated F9 enters the marketplace next weekend. BoxOfficeReport expects A Quiet Place Part II to gross $9.5 million this weekend, which would be a slim 21 percent decline from last weekend and could give the film a slight edge for first place this weekend in the race with Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard.
As for Lionsgate’s Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard, the sequel to 2017’s The Hitman’s Bodyguard entered the marketplace today (Wednesday) in 2,940 locations and also had Tuesday night preview shows. Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard was directed by Patrick Hughes and stars Ryan Reynolds, Samuel L. Jackson and Salma Hayek. The Hitman’s Bodyguard was a stronger than expected performer, as that film opened with $21.38 million back in August of 2017 and had very solid holding power to go on to gross $75.47 million domestically. While The Hitman’s Bodyguard went over well with audiences, the film probably wasn’t something that audiences were truly craving a sequel for. Critical reviews for Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard have been mostly poor, but they also weren’t very good for The Hitman’s Bodyguard either. Other factors that will limit potential for Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard this weekend are the film’s Wednesday opening, which will spread out its grosses over 5+ days (the film probably would have taken first place for sure this weekend if it were opening on Friday), and part of the film’s potential audience sure to stay home before checking out F9 instead next weekend. At the same time, Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard will have some advantages this weekend, as the film will have a significant showtimes per location average edge over A Quiet Place Part II for the frame and will also be playing on IMAX screens. Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard could finish in a very close second place this weekend with $9.4 million over the three-day weekend. The film’s five-day start (including Tuesday previews and earlier previews from this past weekend) could come in at $14.0 million.
Thanks to a better than expected second weekend decline of 57 percent, Warner Bros. and New Line’s The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It took third place last weekend with $10.34 million. With the film’s second weekend decline now behind it, The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It should stabilize even further this weekend to remain in third place. A very solid 36 percent decrease would transfer into $6.6 million for The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It this weekend. That would push the film’s total domestic gross through the end of the weekend to roughly $55 million.
Warner’s In the Heights and Sony’s Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway will both look to have solid second weekend holds after neither film lit the box office on fire last weekend. In the Heights debuted in second place last weekend with a significantly less than expected $11.50 million, while Peter Rabbit 2 opened towards the lower end of expectations with a fourth place take of $10.10 million. In the Heights looks to be going over very well with its target audience after receiving a strong A rating on CinemaScore and as a musical without an opening weekend rush-out, could have some natural back-loading built in. However, as for this weekend In the Heights will have to deal with losing its IMAX screens to Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard and Warner’s previous day-and-date theatrical and HBO Max releases tending to experience sharp second weekend declines (though being available on HBO Max probably already limited the opening weekend performance of In the Heights more so than most other HBO Max releases). As for Peter Rabbit 2, on the average the film looks to be holding onto its showtimes from last weekend better than In the Heights is this weekend. Peter Rabbit 2 is also going over well with its target audience (the film received a healthy A- CinemaScore rating) and could get a slightly larger Father’s Day boost than In the Heights on Sunday, though on the other hand Peter Rabbit 2 will also have to deal with Disney and Pixar’s Luca debuting on Disney+ (for all subscribers) on Friday. It should be a close race for fourth place between the two films this weekend, but BoxOfficeReport feels that Peter Rabbit 2 will have the slight edge. Look for Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway to decline a solid 37 percent to gross $6.4 million and for In the Heights to decrease a respectable 45 percent to take in $6.3 million.
As for some of this weekend’s other holdovers, Disney’s Cruella and Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s Spirit Untamed could both hold up a bit better this weekend than they did last weekend, when Cruella declined 39 percent to claim fifth with $6.74 million and Spirit Untamed fell a sharp 58 percent to land in sixth with $2.57 million. This weekend Cruella could decrease just 31 percent to take sixth with $4.65 million and Spirit Untamed could decline a sizable 47 percent to place in seventh with $1.35 million.
This weekend will also see Focus’ The Sparks Brothers receive a moderate release in an estimated 500 locations. The Edgar Wright directed music documentary on Ron Mael and Russell Mael of Sparks has gone over exceptionally well with critics. BoxOfficeReport isn’t making an official prediction for The Sparks Brothers this weekend.
And after a solid $1.01 million start last weekend from just 420 locations, Hidden Empire Film Group’s The House Next Door: Meet the Blacks 2 is expected to be receiving an expansion this weekend, though the size of that expansion is unknown as of publishing. BoxOfficeReport also isn’t making an official prediction for The House Next Door: Meet the Blacks 2 this weekend.