Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.
After the surprise win of last weekend’s box office race by The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, Warner Bros. will look to lead the box office again this weekend with the release of In the Heights. The theatrical adaptation of the stage musical written by Quiara Alegría Hudes and Lin-Manuel Miranda represents director Jon M. Chu’s follow up to 2018’s highly successful Crazy Rich Asians (which was also released by Warner Bros.). The ensemble cast for In the Heights includes Anthony Ramos, Corey Hawkins, Leslie Grace and Melissa Barrera. Critical reviews for In the Heights have been exceptional and the film is already being considered an early awards season contender. Like Warner’s other 2021 releases thus far, In the Heights will be opening day-and-date theatrically and via streaming on HBO Max. In the Heights is essentially opening on Thursday, as the film is already available on HBO Max and will have Thursday theatrical shows starting at 2PM. The film will also be playing on IMAX screens this weekend. With the decision to open In the Heights on Thursday instead of Friday being very last minute, it’s likely that Thursday’s start for the film will be relatively subdued. And while In the Heights has a built-in audience of its own, that built-in audience obviously isn’t on the same level as that of Miranda’s Hamilton. With that in mind, In the Heights is better positioned for a lengthy run at the box office, as opposed to a massive rush-out this weekend (especially with the film’s exceptional critical reviews and likely strong word of mouth in mind), as more and more moviegoers discover the musical in the weeks ahead. As for this weekend, BoxOfficeReport feels that In the Heights should still comfortably take first place with a four-day start of $22.5 million (with $20.0 million of that total coming from the thee-day weekend itself).
Also opening in wide release this weekend is Sony’s Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway. The Will Gluck directed family film featuring Rose Byrne, Domhnall Gleeson and the voice of James Corden is the follow-up to 2018’s Peter Rabbit. Back in February of 2018, Peter Rabbit had a pre-pandemic opening weekend of $25.01 million, before going on to gross $115.25 million domestically. Peter Rabbit 2 has already started its international run, as through this past Sunday the film has grossed an estimated $45.8 million internationally from select markets, including $17.5 million from the United Kingdom. Peter Rabbit 2 will be playing in 3,346 locations this weekend and have Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. Critical reviews for the film have been solid. Since the re-opening of domestic theatres, family films have been performing relatively well at the box office, though they have been doing so thanks more so to strong holding power than to strong opening weekend performances. Peter Rabbit 2 could follow that trend, especially since on one hand the film is getting a rather average amount of showtimes per location this weekend and on the other hand the film won’t be facing any new competition for family audiences until Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s The Boss Baby: Family Business enters the marketplace three weeks from now on July 2. BoxOfficeReport expects Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway to debut in second place this weekend with $11.7 million.
Paramount’s A Quiet Place Part II will look to start to stabilize this weekend and in the process become the first film since the re-opening of domestic theatres to reach the $100 million domestic mark. Last weekend A Quiet Place Part II declined a sharp 59.5 percent to gross $19.27 million. While A Quiet Place Part II didn’t hold up as well as expected last weekend in the face of new direct competition from The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, A Quiet Place Part II still easily registered the largest second weekend gross of any film since the re-opening of theatres. With last weekend’s decline behind it and the continued aid of strong critical reviews and strong word of mouth, A Quiet Place Part II should hold up better this weekend than it did last weekend, though at the same A Quiet Place Part II will still have to deal with losing a larger percentage of its showtimes this weekend than it did last weekend and with some audience overlap with In the Heights. A sizable, but respectable 48 percent decline from last weekend would give A Quiet Place Part II a third place take of $10.0 million this weekend (and move the film ahead of The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It in this weekend’s rankings).
Warner Bros. and New Line’s The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It exceeded expectations last weekend with a first place debut of $24.10 million. While the third Conjuring film has been going over fairly well with both critics and moviegoers alike and performed especially well last weekend with its location and showtimes counts in mind, the combination of previous recent installments of The Conjuring Universe and previous Warner Bros. day-and-date releases both tending to experience sharp second weekend declines will make it difficult for The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It to avoid experiencing a very sharp second weekend decline of its own this weekend. And like A Quiet Place Part II, there should also be some audience overlap this weekend between The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It and In the Heights (which The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It will be losing its IMAX screens to this weekend). Look for The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It to fall a very sharp 68 percent and three spots from last weekend to land in fourth place with $7.8 million.
Last weekend Disney’s Cruella declined a very reasonable 49 percent to take in $11.00 million in its second weekend. The film has been holding up even better during the midweek this week, as the film’s Wednesday performance was down just 22 percent from last Wednesday. Unfortunately, Cruella will lose some of that momentum this weekend as a result of playing in 615 fewer locations this weekend than last weekend (for a total of 3,307 locations this weekend) and from also taking a larger percentage hit to its showtimes per location this weekend than it did last weekend. With that said, Cruella is still likely to experience this weekend’s strongest percentage hold among holdovers currently in wide release. Cruella could decline a solid 38 percent to round out this weekend’s top five with $6.8 million.
On the heels of last weekend’s $6.10 million start, Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s Spirit Untamed will likely experience a sizable second weekend decline. In addition to facing new direct competition for family audiences from Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway, Spirit Untamed being based off of a pre-established animated series looks to be helping lead to initial front-loading for the film. Back in October of 2017, My Little Pony: The Movie declined 54 percent in its second weekend. Spirit Untamed might hold up slightly better than that this weekend, thanks in part to strong word of mouth (the film received an A rating on CinemaScore) and in part to playing in 183 more locations this weekend than last weekend (for a total of 3,394 locations). A 48 percent decline would give Spirit Untamed a sixth place second weekend haul of $3.2 million.