Weekend box office predictions are provided by Daniel Garris, courtesy of BoxOfficeReport.com.
Entering the marketplace this weekend is United Artist Releasing’s release of MGM’s Wrath of Man. The action-thriller reunites director Guy Ritchie with star Jason Statham. Since the re-opening of domestic theatres, there hasn’t been any shortage of action-thrillers, with the most recent being Universal’s Nobody, which debuted with $6.82 million back in March. One major opening weekend advantage Wrath of Man will have over Nobody is that Wrath of Man will be opening in 2,875 locations this weekend; 415 more locations than Nobody debuted in. Other factors that will benefit Wrath of Man this weekend are that the film will be playing on IMAX screens, will be getting a solid amount of showtimes per location and will also be opening during the traditionally strong first full weekend of May (with relatively little competition to deal with this weekend as well). As of publishing, critical reviews for Wrath of Man are looking solid, but not great. Wrath of Man will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM. While it certainly won’t have the typical impact of an early May release, Wrath of Man looks to be in store for a solid debut by current theatrical standards. BoxOfficeReport expects Wrath of Man to debut in first place this weekend with $7.90 million, which would give the film a per-location average of $2,748 for the frame.
After they both exceeded expectations two weeks ago, last weekend Funimation Films and Aniplex’s Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Movie: Mugen Train and Warner’s Mortal Kombat both experienced very sharp second weekend declines; Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train slowed 70 percent to gross an estimated $6.42 million, while Mortal Kombat fell 73 percent to gross $6.23 million. While they should both experience some stabilizing this weekend, Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train and Mortal Kombat should also still experience sharp declines this weekend, especially since both films look to be losing more showtimes per location than they did last weekend and both films will be losing their IMAX showtimes to Wrath of Man. The two films will likely remain close to one another in this weekend’s rankings and BoxOfficeReport feels that Mortal Kombat could inch just back ahead of Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train this weekend with respective weekend grosses of $2.70 million for Mortal Kombat (for second place) and $2.60 million for Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train (for third place). That would represent a 57 percent decline for Mortal Kombat and a 60 percent decrease for Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train.
After declining a solid 34 percent to take in $2.82 million last weekend, Warner Bros. and Legendary’s Godzilla vs. Kong will look to continue to stabilize this weekend. Despite the new competition from Wrath of Man, Godzilla vs. Kong looks to be holding onto its showtimes per location better this weekend than it did last weekend. A 29 percent decline would give Godzilla vs. Kong $2.00 million, as the film continues to inch its way towards becoming the first release to reach the $100 million domestic milestone since the re-opening of theatres.
Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon could experience a nice boost this weekend thanks in part to seeing its location count increase from 1,810 to 2,315 as a result of the Cinemark and Regal theatre chains starting to play the film this weekend. The Mother’s Day holiday on Sunday should also contribute to this weekend’s boost for Raya and the Last Dragon. After experiencing a 21 percent decrease to remain in fifth place last weekend with $1.38 million, BoxOfficeReport feels that Raya and the Last Dragon could increase a healthy 30 percent this weekend to gross $1.80 million, which would be good enough for fifth place once again.
On the heels of last weekend’s modest $1.80 million debut, look for Open Road and Briarcliff’s Separation to decline a respectable 44 percent to finish in sixth place with a second weekend take of $1.00 million.
Opening in semi-wide release this weekend is Sony’s Here Today. The comedy was directed by Billy Crystal and stars Crystal and Tiffany Haddish. Here Today is a Stage 6 Films release and unfortunately recent Stage 6 releases haven’t performed very well at the box office. With the presence of Crystal and Haddish and the film opening over Mother’s Day weekend, Here Today could perform a bit stronger than other recent Stage 6 releases, but at the same time the film’s potential will still be limited by a fairly last minute release date, playing in a modest 1,200 locations this weekend and by mixed critical reviews. BoxOfficeReport is predicting a seventh place start of $0.90 million for Here Today (for a per-location average of $750).
As for some of this weekend’s other holdovers, Universal’s Nobody could decline 34 percent in the face of new direct competition from Wrath of Man to land in eighth with $0.85 million, while Sony’s The Unholy could also ease by 34 percent to take ninth with $0.70 million. And thanks to expanding from 152 locations last weekend to 448 locations this weekend, what would likely have been a sharp second weekend decline for Universal’s re-issue of Scott Pilgrim vs. the World after last weekend surprising $0.73 million start, should instead be a healthy second weekend hold. While the film’s per-location average should take a major hit this weekend, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World could decline just 18 percent to place in tenth with $0.60 million.